# Will The Republicans ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224 "2012-12-26T21:33:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 60
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1181 "2013-07-07T04:41:11Z")
That doesn’t strike me as clear at all. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1182 "2013-07-07T04:42:45Z")
Democrats lose voters over $50,000/yr, and sometimes lose voters over $30,000/yr. I think the incentives are quite clear. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1183 "2013-07-07T04:48:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats lose voters over $50,000/yr, and sometimes lose voters over $30,000/yr. I think the incentives are quite clear. Ironic how it’s Republican policies that are making more poor people, then, isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1184 "2013-07-07T04:54:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats lose voters over $50,000/yr, and sometimes lose voters over $30,000/yr. I think the incentives are quite clear. I don’t see how presenting a platform with the goal of appealing to the working poor (or unemployed poor, for that matter) translates to policies of increasing the numbers of the working poor. It’s kind of like saying doctors treat diabetes, therefore they want more diabetes cases and are taking steps to create them, like encouraging poorer diets and sedentary lifestyles and whatnot. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1185 "2013-07-07T04:55:08Z")
Yes, and THAT’s the problem. It’s the beginning and the end of the GOP’s issues. At the state level, where Republicans have governed better, they’ve done better electorally. It’s my Simon Cowell Theory: On American Idol, Cowell would be asked what the contestants can do. He’d simply say, “Sing well”. Same goes for politicians. Govern well, elections take care of themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1186 "2013-07-07T05:13:21Z")
At this point, getting Republicans to govern well will require a pretty dramatic restructuring in and of itself, at least in Congress. What useful governance have the House Republicans done lately? Examples? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1187 "2013-07-07T05:14:18Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Has anyone noticed that **adaher** ’s and **OMG** ’s scenarios, like the classic description of a physics experiment, depends upon an ideal Republican Party which bears little to no resemblance to the real-world GOP they have? Shit, (almost) everything the pair thinks bears little to no resemblance to reality. It’s that delusional thing I pointed out a few pages ago. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1188 "2013-07-07T05:15:45Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > At this point, getting Republicans to govern well will require a pretty dramatic restructuring in and of itself, at least in Congress. What useful governance have the House Republicans done lately? Examples? Earmark reform, controlling spending. Given the limitations of only controlling the House, that’s actually a pretty successful record. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1189 "2013-07-07T05:18:46Z")
I’m guessing you consider the 37 (futile) attempts to repeal the ACA to be “controlling spending” despite the fact that the CBO has shown that the deficit will be HIGHER without the ACA than with it. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1190 "2013-07-07T05:22:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Now the GOP just has to figure out how to win the 2-3 million young voters who came out for Obama in 2008 but stayed home in 2012. Obama already took the first step for us by disappointing them. We’ve already seen cites that prove you wrong on the numbers (first quoted sentence); would you care to offer us a cite to support either of your two assertions above? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1191 "2013-07-07T05:23:02Z")
No, I do not. However, you’re buying into an inaccurate talking point. The Republicans have only voted on full ACA repeal a few times. Other votes have been to repeal parts of ACA, and a couple of them, such as repeal of the CLASS Act, actually went through and was signed by the President. By controlling spending, I mean that Republicans have appropriated between $3.5-$3.6 trillion every year they’ve controlled the House, thus keeping spending flat. The President in each of those years has asked for $3.8 trillion, an 8% increase over the previous year’s spending. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1192 "2013-07-07T05:24:30Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > We’ve already seen cites that prove you wrong on the numbers (first quoted sentence); would you care to offer us a cite to support either of your two assertions above? [http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-lost-2-4-million-young-voters-2012-161508263.html](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-lost-2-4-million-young-voters-2012-161508263.html) ome 2.4 million young voters who supported Barack Obama in his 2008 presidential race did not vote for him in 2012, according to an analysis released Friday by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University. CIRCLE used Census data released this week combined with exit poll data to produce estimates for young voter participation. It found that 14.8 million voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Obama in 2008, but just 12.3 million of those voters cast ballots for the president in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1193 "2013-07-07T05:25:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Earmark reform, controlling spending. Given the limitations of only controlling the House, that’s actually a pretty successful record. By earmark reform, do you mean the Earmark Transparency Act? I’m not sure “controlling spending” is what the American economy critically needed; I’m not inclined to view it as a worthy goal in and of itself without some consideration of the context. Anyway, couldn’t they be even _more_ successful if they worked for compromises that the Senate and President could agree to, even if not enthusiastically? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1194 "2013-07-07T05:30:39Z")
Sure they could. That’s been one of their weaknesses, their unwillingness to consider revenue increases. On the other hand, Democrats can’t be trusted on spending cuts. Tax increases are always immediate, spending cuts always come later. I think Republicans would be much more amenable if Democrats offered spending cuts equal in value to the tax increases in the same year, not 10 years down the road. So I understand the Republican intransigence as strategically necessary for the time being. If Republicans win the Senate, however, the dynamic changes, and they need to make deals with the President in order to be effective. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1195 "2013-07-07T05:36:07Z")
Well, if the Republicans retake the Senate in 2014 (and retain the House), are they likely to be more compromising with Obama, less compromising, or about the same? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1196 "2013-07-07T05:37:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > [Drop in youth vote for Obama in 2012, study shows](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-lost-2-4-million-young-voters-2012-161508263.html) > > ome 2.4 million young voters who supported Barack Obama in his 2008 presidential race did not vote for him in 2012, according to an analysis released Friday by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University. > > CIRCLE used Census data released this week combined with exit poll data to produce estimates for young voter participation. It found that 14.8 million voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Obama in 2008, but just 12.3 million of those voters cast ballots for the president in 2012. The link to the actual study in your cite does not go to a study or a website that exists. On my own, I did manage to find [the study](http://www.civicyouth.org/only-12-3-million-young-people-18-29-voted-for-president-obama-in-%E2%80%9812-down-from-14-8-million-in-%E2%80%9808/?cat_id=0) and CIRCLE is careful to note that their methodology is imperfect and they are using a new source for data. They also are careful to use the word “estimate” before offering any numbers. [ > [@](#): > > Immediately after the 2012 election, CIRCLE released our own estimates of the turnout rate: 50% for ages 18-29 and 48% for ages 18-24. We used the following method to reach those estimates: multiplying the number of ballots officially counted by that date by the proportion of voters who were young (according to the National Exit Polls) and then dividing that result by the number of young citizens (from Census data). In previous elections going back to the origins of the modern exit polls in the late 1990s, this method had always closely tracked the results of CPS turnout estimates. The discrepancy is a new phenomenon in 2012. > > Like other organizations that study voting, we will now switch to using the CPS, which provides the largest sample sizes and the longest and most consistent historical trends. That means that we now presume that youth turnout fell significantly in 2012. > > It is important to note, however, that all estimates of youth turnout are subject to bias and error. The Census CPS is a survey of a random sample of Americans, conducted shortly after the election. This year, it suggests that 133 million Americans voted. Counts of the actual number of ballots cast in 2012 vary, but no one has estimated more than 129 million votes. If the people who are contacted for the CPS and agree to participate do not precisely represent the public, the sample may be skewed. Although the sample size is large, there can still be a systematic bias–and the bias can be different for particular demographic groups, such as young adults. Also, respondents may claim that they voted when they did not. They may even accurately recall voting, but if their ballots were not counted, there would be a discrepancy between the CPS turnout estimates and the number of votes. ]([CIRCLE](http://www.civicyouth.org/estimating-youth-turnout-from-census-and-exit-poll-data/?cat_id=0)) But, if we take the estimate at face value, did Romney gain any of those youth votes? How do you know they didn’t vote for Obama because he “disappointed them”? What percentage or number of the youth vote from 2008 is now out of the age demographic considered by the CIRCLE paper? Did those people vote for Obama or Romney? It looks like you saw some numbers that you thought were good for your argument (such as it is) and just started making up reasons to justify those numbers. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1197 "2013-07-07T05:45:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > This movement wasn’t led by politicians, it was led by the likes of Rush Limbaugh, a man we all love to hate, but one who has probably created more conservatives than anyone in the country. Doubtful. He is not the sort who is persuasive to anyone who does not already agree with him very strongly. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1198 "2013-07-07T05:55:47Z")
I dunno, what are Limbaugh’s demographics like? What are his audience numbers under age 25? Does he get any new listeners whose parents were not also listeners? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1199 "2013-07-07T05:55:47Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Well, if the Republicans retake the Senate in 2014 (and retain the House), are they likely to be more compromising with Obama, less compromising, or about the same? I hope more compromising, but it seems unlikely. A win in 2014 would essentially make Obama a lame duck and the country would start focusing on the Presidential race, which is pretty much what happened at the beginning of 2007. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2013, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1200 "2013-07-07T05:56:52Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I dunno, what are Limbaugh’s demographics like? What are his audience numbers under age 25? Does he get any new listeners whose parents were not also listeners? Probably not anymore, but in his heyday he was extremely influential in a way not seen since Father Coughlin. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=59) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=61)