# Will The Republicans ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224 "2012-12-26T21:33:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 71
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2013, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1401 "2013-07-14T23:41:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Likewise, neither does race. African-Americans are the least likely to be conservative, but if you go into your average black church with 100 people, 10 of them are likely to be conservatives. > > With other ethnic groups, the percentage of conservatives is much higher, from one third to 40%. You’re missing something. African-Americans, like other Americans, are actual human beings. That makes them different in some ways from geographical artifacts. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2013, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1402 "2013-07-14T23:42:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Likewise, neither does race. African-Americans are the least likely to be conservative, but if you go into your average black church with 100 people, 10 of them are likely to be conservatives. > > With other ethnic groups, the percentage of conservatives is much higher, from one third to 40%. What is your point? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1403 "2013-07-15T00:06:40Z")
Again, that demographics doesn’t doom the GOP. Back to gerrymandering, one reason for the greater number of red-leaning districts is that the Voting Rights Act requires the stuffing of minorities into their own districts. You’ve got a lot of blue districts that are 70%, 80%, and even 90% Democrat. What’s more, it seems that Ascenray is suggesting that we should draw districts to ensure partisan balance, rather than just drawing logically shaped districts. Put some squares on the map, make sure your districts have roughly equal population, you’re done. Many states now have computers draw the districts. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1404 "2013-07-15T00:14:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Back to gerrymandering, one reason for the greater number of red-leaning districts is that the Voting Rights Act requires the stuffing of minorities into their own districts. You’ve got a lot of blue districts that are 70%, 80%, and even 90% Democrat. The Voting Rights Act does not require that. > [@](#): > > What’s more, it seems that Ascenray is suggesting that we should draw districts to ensure partisan balance Nonsense. > [@](#): > > , rather than just drawing logically shaped districts. Put some squares on the map, make sure your districts have roughly equal population, you’re done. That’s not anything close to how districts are drawn now. > [@](#): > > Many states now have computers draw the districts. The number of half-truths you spout is mind-boggling. Yes, they have computers draw districts. _They have the computers draw districts to favor the party that controls the drawing_. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1405 "2013-07-15T00:47:42Z")
The judicial interpretation of the voting rights act created minority districts. As a matter of fact, there is some fear that minority districts might go away because of the SCOTUS decision on the VRA: [http://www.wltx.com/news/article/224580/2/Minority-Districts-at-Issue-in-Voting-Rights-Case](http://www.wltx.com/news/article/224580/2/Minority-Districts-at-Issue-in-Voting-Rights-Case) ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1406 "2013-07-15T00:51:11Z")
Majority-minority districts are mandated. The main effect of that was to make it difficult for white Democrats to win seats in the South. But that is a result that is very different from the claim you are making. Drawing majority-minority does not necessarily result in dilution of Democratic votes to the extent that there will be inevitable underrepresentation of Democratic votes in the results ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1407 "2013-07-15T00:56:34Z")
Now you’re ignoring simple math. If you squish minorities into a district so that it’s like D+15, that’s going to mean all the surrounding districts lose some Democratic voters. Let’s say the city of Metropolis has six districts and an overall rating of D+4. You draw a squiggly line through the minority areas and create a D+15 district there. That reduces the partisan makeup of the remaining 5/6ths of the city substantially. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1408 "2013-07-15T00:57:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Now you’re ignoring simple math. If you squish minorities into a district so that it’s like D+15, that’s going to mean all the surrounding districts lose some Democratic voters. > > Let’s say the city of Metropolis has six districts and an overall rating of D+4. You draw a squiggly line through the minority areas and create a D+15 district there. That reduces the partisan makeup of the remaining 5/6ths of the city substantially. Who told you the majority-minority district had to be D+15? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1409 "2013-07-15T01:04:03Z")
D+15 is pretty mild for a majority minority district. Some are D+30. Which reduces the Democratic vote in the other districts even more. Anyway, Cook Political Report calculated the number of strong GOP seats created by redistricting: 8. Lost strong Dem seats: 4. So figure the GOP gained 12 seats purely from redistricting. Which means they still hold the House in 2012 even if we assume a fair process. Actually, Cook says GOP gained only 6 from redistricting. [http://cookpolitical.com/house/pvi](http://cookpolitical.com/house/pvi) Most startling, there were 32 more strong GOP seats BEFORE redistricting than strong Democrat seats. Which I think settles the issue pretty definitively. According to Cook, the “natural” GOP majority is 45. Which says what I’ve been saying for awhile: the GOP underperforms relative to what they should be accomplishing. They should be dominating Congress nearly all the time as the Democrats did from 1933-1994 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1410 "2013-07-15T01:30:47Z")
Basic adaher math: Just because there are more Democratic voters than Republican ones does not mean that Democrats should have more seats than Republicans. In fact, it is impossible to draw lines that would result in a majority of Democratic seats even though there are more Democratic voters. Those are postulates of adaherism and cannot be disputed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1411 "2013-07-15T02:03:31Z")
Those are simply the reality. Since Democrats are concentrated into small geographic areas, you’d have to draw crazy lines to be able to get an even number of blue and red districts. You’d have to make it even more crazy if you wanted to keep the minority districts. Fact: Prior to 2010, there were 45 more R leaning districts than D. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1412 "2013-07-15T02:08:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Those are simply the reality. Since Democrats are concentrated into small geographic areas, you’d have to . . . . . . draw geographically smaller districts in those areas than in rural areas to achieve districts of equal population, which is how it is done now. > [@adaher](#): > > . . . draw crazy lines to be able to get an even number of blue and red districts. No one here has suggested that should be a goal of redistricting. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1413 "2013-07-15T02:17:18Z")
Democrats try to do that. It’s a challenging task, especially when you have to draw all these D+30 districts for minorities. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1414 "2013-07-15T02:23:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s a challenging task, especially when you have to draw all these D+30 districts for minorities. Again, you are pretending that you _have to_ draw districts with huge majorities for Democrats. You don’t. > [@adaher](#): > > Those are simply the reality. Since Democrats are concentrated into small geographic areas, you’d have to draw crazy lines to be able to get an even number of blue and red districts (1) Utter nonsense. (2) district lines are already crazy. > [@](#): > > Fact: Prior to 2010, there were 45 more R leaning districts than D. And what makes 2010 a landmark for you? Republicans have been taking over state legislatures since the early 1990s. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1415 "2013-07-15T02:35:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats try to do that. Cite? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1416 "2013-07-15T02:41:33Z")
Democrats don’t try to draw districting maps that benefit them? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1417 "2013-07-15T03:27:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats don’t try to draw districting maps that benefit them? Of course they do. You said they tried to **equalize** the number of red and blue districts. **No** party does that when it has control of redistricting. That is why the whole thing should be left to an independent commission, like in Canada. But, neither would nor should an independent commission try to equalize the number of red and blue districts, that is never a legitimate goal. Where are you getting that nonsense anyway? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1418 "2013-07-15T03:42:42Z")
I meant they try to draw more Democratic districts, but it’s challenging to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1419 "2013-07-15T03:46:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I meant they try to draw more Democratic districts, but it’s challenging to do so. It’s not even the least bit challenging. The do exactly what the Republicans do. They hire a consultant who licenses software to draw the districts for them according to the parameters they choose. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1420 "2013-07-15T03:56:04Z")
Then why do they fail? It’s not as if Republicans were dominating state legislatures in the 2000 election. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=70) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=72)