# Will The Republicans ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224 "2012-12-26T21:33:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 72
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1421 "2013-07-15T04:19:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then why do they fail? It’s not as if Republicans were dominating state legislatures in the 2000 election. You think that’s the year? Look at the Tea Party’s (only) year (ever), 2010. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1422 "2013-07-15T04:21:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I meant they try to draw more Democratic districts, but it’s challenging to do so. But, it isn’t, because there are more Dem voters in America than Pub, as you know, so trying to draw more **Republican** districts is the challenge, as, again, you know, and care not. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1423 "2013-07-15T04:31:21Z")
If that was the case, then 2010 would have seen the GOP make redistricting gains for the first time pretty much ever. They did gain an 8 seat benefit, but they already had a huge seat advantage to begin with. Look, Nate Silver and Cook have been over this many times, it’s not hard to find articles on it. I can’t believe this concept is new to you. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1424 "2013-07-15T12:21:26Z")
A note in passing - life and work have gotten more than a little insane in the past week, so if **OMGABC** is still awaiting a response from me (and I have not had time to read this whole thread) I’m afraid he’ll have a little while longer to continue to declare victory by fiat or whatever he’s been doing before I have a chance to offer anything more substantive than a passing comment. OTOH if no one cares anymore let me know and I won’t bother. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1425 "2013-07-15T21:00:12Z")
nate Silver now says Senate control is “increasingly a toss-up” [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/senate-control-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/senate-control-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/) Will Democrats ever figure out why Senate control is endangered? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1426 "2013-07-15T22:46:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > nate Silver now says Senate control is “increasingly a toss-up” > > [Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup - The New York Times](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/senate-control-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/) > > Will Democrats ever figure out why Senate control is endangered? Luck of the cycle. We’ve known that all along. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1427 "2013-07-15T23:20:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > nate Silver now says Senate control is “increasingly a toss-up” > > [Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup - The New York Times](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/senate-control-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/) > > Will Democrats ever figure out why Senate control is endangered? Because of the massive amount of wins in 06/08 left us with seats in places we really had no business winning and a lot more races to defend this time around? It’s not exactly complicated, like you said there are more red states. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2013, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1428 "2013-07-15T23:46:12Z")
The same was true in 2006, yet the Democrats astonishingly gained seats in 2012, thus the gloating in this thread. Why can’t they repeat the feat two years later, when supposedly demographics will be even more in their favor? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1429 "2013-07-16T10:14:22Z")
The answer is that for all its problems, the GOP is still the default governing party unless they screw things up, which they’ve done a lot lately. When the GOP runs even okay candidates, they win more often than not. If the 2014 Senate races feature no Todd Akin moments, they’ll do fine. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1430 "2013-07-16T10:25:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If the 2014 Senate races feature no Todd Akin moments, they’ll do fine. So the outlook is pretty dim? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1431 "2013-07-16T11:20:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The answer is that for all its problems, the GOP is still the default governing party Based on what data, dare we inquire? Note that no Republican has won the Presidency in an unstolen election since **1988** , IOW probably not in your lifetime. Note that the Democrats control the Senate, and actually increased their total last time despite having more seats to defend. Note that more people by far voted for Democratic Congressmen last time than Republicans. That’s a hell of a lot of screwing up. How much do you have to unskew the data to say it consists of only outliers? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1432 "2013-07-16T11:30:23Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > So the outlook is pretty dim? Heh. Maybe. Silver can’t account for that, thus his disclaimer that radical or otherwise poor candidates would cause the Republicans to underperform. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1433 "2013-07-16T12:24:43Z")
What is “default governing party” supposed to mean beyond just a phrase that Newt Gingrich says a lot in order to try to Jedi trick people into thinking it has some significance? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1434 "2013-07-16T12:54:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The answer is that for all its problems, the GOP is still the default governing party unless they screw things up, which they’ve done a lot lately. When the GOP runs even okay candidates, they win more often than not. If the 2014 Senate races feature no Todd Akin moments, they’ll do fine. The answer is that your voters are simply more reliable, most specially so in mid terms. It’s the reason elections are as close as they are even though a whole lot more people identify as Democrat. I believe you’ll gain seats in the senate and lose seats in the house, but not enough to flip either. This thread is about presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1435 "2013-07-16T12:56:37Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > What is “default governing party” supposed to mean beyond just a phrase that Newt Gingrich says a lot in order to try to Jedi trick people into thinking it has some significance? The Republicans only lose when they screw up. All things being equal, they win. This thread is aptly titled. THe Democrats didn’t win. The Republicans lost. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1436 "2013-07-16T13:00:04Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > The answer is that your voters are simply more reliable, most specially so in mid terms. It’s the reason elections are as close as they are even though a whole lot more people identify as Democrat. I believe you’ll gain seats in the senate and lose seats in the house, but not enough to flip either. This thread is about presidential elections. I have another theory about that. Back when Democrats dominated Congress, Republicans were still able to win the Presidency often enough. Now that the GOP is controlling Congress more often than not, it makes it easier for Democratic Presidential candidates to use them as a foil. The public instinctively supports divided government. The last time any party held unified control for more than four years was the Kennedy/Johnson era. Now personally, as a conservative, I’d rather have Congress. So if you guys want the Presidency, we can cut that deal.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1437 "2013-07-16T13:03:33Z")
Funny how the “default governing party” shows no interest in actually governing. Unless you count 30+ votes to repeal Obamacare as governing. Of course, any data point that doesn’t square with the “oh golly Republicans are the cat’s pajamas!” viewpoint is by definition an outlier. The problem is that Republican voters may be fewer in number and they may have backward viewpoints, but they vote in each and every election. Thus, after a year and a half of nonstop unopposed lies about Obamacare, in 2010 they turned out a Republican House and enough Republican legislatures to grease their skids for another decade. That’s unfortunate, but those are the cards on the table and we have to play them. In 2014, there are more vulnerable Democratic Senate seats than Republicans. Just like in 2012, it looks like the Senate could flip. However, there will probably be enough whackadoodles nominated for the close Senate seats to keep Republicans from gaining control. In any event, the 2016 Senate races are going to be a bonanza for Democrats as the 2010 aberrations are drummed out. ---
**Author:** ![rEVOLutionary](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revolutionary/32/7311_2.png) [@rEVOLutionary](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rEVOLutionary)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1438 "2013-07-16T13:12:12Z")
I think they lost because they isolated Ron Paul and never gave him a chance. If he was given equal coverage, and people actually listened to him, I think he would be the POTUS right now, and our country would be A LOT better. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1439 "2013-07-16T13:17:18Z")
> [@rEVOLutionary](#): > > I think they lost because they isolated Ron Paul and never gave him a chance. If he was given equal coverage, and people actually listened to him, I think he would be the POTUS right now, and our country would be A LOT better. I’m glad I wasn’t drinking my pop when I read this, I’d be cleaning my monitor for a week. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2013, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1440 "2013-07-16T13:17:23Z")
Ron Paul has too many out of the mainstream views and comes off as a crotchety old man. His son is more likely to move into the White House. Unlike Ron, he knows how to pick his battles and when. He also knows how to back off and re-explain himself when he gets in trouble, whereas Ron tends to double down. I do agree though that the GOP’s future is in libertarianism. Not the pure form advocated by Ron Paul and the Libertarian Party, but a moderate libertarianism. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=71) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=73)