# Will the Senate go back to the Dems? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 5, 2015, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632 "2015-10-05T19:05:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/1 "2015-10-05T19:05:35Z")
Senate seats, while wildly uneven in representation, are at least ungerrymanderable. So far we have Russ Feingold well ahead in the Wisconsin polls to take back his old seat, Strickland ahead in Ohio, Murphy in Florida. Now Gov. Maggie Hassan is challenging Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, and is a good bet to win that too. What other seat-changing races look good to you folks? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/2 "2015-10-05T20:47:46Z")
Update: [This guy in Florida (where else?)](http://gawker.com/yes-i-drank-the-goats-blood-says-floridas-pagan-li-1734683751?discussion_truncation=15&utm_expid=66866090-56.xSggy8zmSwG3vMsivr7rOg.4&utm_campaign=socialflow_gawker_facebook&utm_source=gawker_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2F) might actually have a chance - if he can put down that cup of goat’s blood. > [@](#): > > Augustus Sol Invictus, Floridian former lawyer and current Libertarian candidate for Senate, once described himself as “of genius intellect,” “God’s gift to humankind where the English language is concerned,” and “everything you ever wanted to be.” > … > > “Witness ye the glory of my life at 29 years of age: I have four children, each of whom should be the envy of every parent in the world; I have attained a Baccalaureate Degree in Philosophy with honors; I have attained a Doctorate in Law, cum laude; I have acquired licenses in the profession of law in the States of New York, Illinois, and Florida; I am scheduled to acquire two more such licenses in North Carolina & Massachusetts; I am Editor-in-Chief of a poetry journal; I run an independent publishing company; I have opened my own law office in downtown Orlando; I am an MBA candidate; and I have accomplished a few other things that will remain off the record for now.” ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/3 "2015-10-05T22:55:47Z")
I think the only correct answer to the title question is “maybe.” ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/4 "2015-10-05T23:17:13Z")
Well, 2010 was a good off year election for the GOP, so just from that one would expect the Repubs to have more vulnerable seats to defend, and have the disadvantage of doing so in a Presidential election year. Googling, the Dems have 10 seats up while the GOP has 24. Dems need a four seat net gain for a tied Senate. Also the map seems to favour Dems, with the GOP defending in a lot of purplish blue states (OH, FL, NH, WI) and one very blue state (Ill). I don’t think the Dems are defending any redstate seats, are they? Obviously it’ll depend on how the Presidential campaign goes, but given the map its hard to see a Dem Prez winning while her party didn’t also carry the Senate. And even a close GOP Presidential win might go with a reversal in the Senate. ETA: Also, one wonders if McCain might retire, opening a race in AZ. I seem to recall him musing publically he was on his last term back in 2010. I think Leahy (D - VT) has already said he’ll retire in 2016, but its pretty unlikely that will lead to a change in seat, except maybe to a Dem-alligned 3rd party, as Vermonters are wont to do. (fun fact, despite it’s status as one of the Unions most liberal states, VT has sent exactly one Democrat to the Senate in its entire history). ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/5 "2015-10-05T23:24:33Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I don’t think the Dems are defending any redstate seats, are they? I’d be very surprised if the Dems took any red state seats in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/6 "2015-10-05T23:54:36Z")
Here are the 2016 senate races sorted by [Cook Partisan Voting Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index). State PVI Hawaii D+20 Vermont D+16 New York D+11 Maryland D+10 California D+9 Illinois D+8 Connecticut D+7 Oregon D+5 Washington D+5 Nevada D+2 Wisconsin D+2 Colorado D+1 Iowa D+1 New Hampshire D+1 Pennsylvania D+1 Ohio R+1 Florida R+2 North Carolina R+3 Indiana R+5 Missouri R+5 Georgia R+6 Arizona R+7 South Carolina R+8 North Dakota R+10 South Dakota R+10 Alaska R+12 Kansas R+12 Louisiana R+12 Kentucky R+13 Alabama R+14 Arkansas R+14 Idaho R+18 Oklahoma R+19 Utah R+22 A rough cut (+5) which ignores candidates, incumbency, etc. puts it at 9 Dem, 16 Rep, 9 toss up. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/7 "2015-10-06T00:24:29Z")
[Politico’s take](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/senate-2016-election-democrats-119778): > [@](#): > > … While the 2016 map is favorable, flipping control of the Senate would require winning most of the toss-up races and defeating several well-funded GOP incumbents in pricey swing states that will also be crucial in the race for the White House. … > > … Eight of the 10 seats most likely to change parties next year are held by Republicans, and Democrats have a solid chance to grab control of the Senate following the 2016 elections. > But Democrats should have higher ambitions for the number of seats they hope to grab in 2016. The 2018 Senate map isn’t nearly as welcoming for the party — they will be defending seats in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. > National Democrats say plainly the goal is to take control of the Senate in 2017. But if they intend to hold it for more than two years, they’ll likely need to run up the score by putting in play GOP-held seats further down this list, like North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. … ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/8 "2015-10-06T02:55:47Z")
The Democrats can take the Senate, I’d rate the chances right now as 60%. But I’m not too concerned, it’s pretty meaningless. 2018 is the worst map ever for Democrats, even worse than 2014, due to Republicans’ severe underachieving in 2012. Of course, then comes 2020, which is a general election year and another favorable map for Democrats. So what matters here isn’t so much control, but whether Democrats win more seats than Republicans in the two successive elections. Democrats have a shot at more stable control in 2020, but that means doing well in 2016 and limiting the damage in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/9 "2015-10-06T03:09:19Z")
Yeah, if they take back the Senate, then the Dems really need to run up the score in 2016 because the 2018 map is friggin’ terrible. The only one on the Dem side that might prove difficult to retain in '16 is the Nevada seat, especially if Brian Sandoval jumps in. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/10 "2015-10-06T03:14:25Z")
You have to reelect Michael Bennett too in Colorado. Sabato has it rated “Leans D”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2015, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-senate-go-back-to-the-dems/733632/11 "2015-10-08T06:02:53Z")
THe Democrats recruited almost everyone they wanted for the senate races. That’s usually a good sign.