# Will the Tesla Model 3 revolutionize Amercan driving? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 30, 2015, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537 "2015-07-30T00:07:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/201 "2015-09-02T00:34:09Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > This is a bit unfair. Sure, Musk talks big, but he’s also mostly delivered on his promises. The first two Teslas were miles beyond what any “whole company” was building at the time. IIRC, the Model X was supposed to go into production two years ago in late 2013. They were supposed to be building 20,000 Model S per year by mid-2012, and in reality they were building 12 a week in August of that year. There’s no way to overlook those failures to deliver. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/202 "2015-09-02T01:35:58Z")
So are you saying that you anticipate that the supply of the Model 3 will prevent it from revolutionizing driving simply because it will not be made in huge numbers i.e. typical Tesla undelivered promises? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/203 "2015-09-02T01:48:01Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > So are you saying that you anticipate that the supply of the Model 3 will prevent it from revolutionizing driving simply because it will not be made in huge numbers i.e. typical Tesla undelivered promises? There were 8 million cars sold in the U.S. last year. I just can’t imagine that getting 5% of cars sales - even if Tesla’s production estimates are met - can “revolutionize” car driving. If they get 4% of the market, and five other companies get 2% of the market, then we’re starting to talk about a real change in transportation. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/204 "2015-09-02T03:49:09Z")
I think Tesla Motors is doing amazingly well considering what they started from. It took a long bit for GM to get behind electric, and the Volt is a hedged bet in a way. Nissan and Tesla have both been much more committed to electric, and even Nissan looks at the Leaf as a huge, difficult project. Tesla doesn’t have a fleet of petroleum-burning cars to sell. They’ve built up from nothing, and produced a relative handful of avant-garde cars. But even that is amazing. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/205 "2015-09-02T04:00:10Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > IIRC, the Model X was supposed to go into production two years ago in late 2013. They were supposed to be building 20,000 Model S per year by mid-2012, and in reality they were building 12 a week in August of that year. There’s no way to overlook those failures to deliver. Tesla is behind schedule. But then, what new engineering projects aren’t behind schedule? Three years is basically nothing, _especially_ in the auto industry. Is Boeing some fly-by-night joke because the 787 was 3 years late? If Tesla had been late and delivered a piece of shit, there’d be a lot of room to complain. But instead they’re late and delivered a fantastic car, and one that they could ultimately produce in moderate volume. They’ve met virtually all their promises except schedule. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/206 "2015-09-02T04:11:29Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > There were 8 million cars sold in the U.S. last year. Just FYI, 2014 USA sales were north of 16 million. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/207 "2015-09-02T04:47:55Z")
I own a plug in hybrid (Ford cmax). Charging stations are popping up all over. The airport, the train station, the supermarket… We do about half our driving on electric with its 20 mile range. We have two cars. The 70 mile leaf isn’t quite enough. We have many times when we’d want to go farther on a charge. But if an affordable electric car had a 200 mile range, that would work very well for us, and would probably be our next car. Heck, I grew up driving ICE cars that only went 200 miles in a tank. The days of my being willing to sit in a car longer than that without a break are past. Yes, I know some people enjoy road trips. An electric car isn’t for them. Lots of us don’t, though, despite driving a lot of total miles. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/208 "2015-09-02T09:21:03Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > I own a plug in hybrid (Ford cmax). > … > We do about half our driving on electric with its 20 mile range. Specifically it sounds like you have the C-Max Energi, which isn’t just a trim line. The standard C-Max isn’t a PHEV, just a standard HEV. I had a chance to drive my father’s a couple of months ago, and it impressed me a whole lot more than I thought it would. I’m going to cross my fingers and hope there’s a plug-in Escape next time I’m in the market, though (I’m pretty sure I’ll be disappointed). ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/209 "2015-09-02T10:59:48Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Tesla is behind schedule. But then, what new engineering projects aren’t behind schedule? Three years is basically nothing, _especially_ in the auto industry. Is Boeing some fly-by-night joke because the 787 was 3 years late? I think the difference is that Tesla has consistently promised production a short time after a model has been announced - like a year after - and been several years late. Besides, it’s the same pattern shown with other Musk enterprises, especially SpaceX. So you would say that Boeing met all its promises with the 787? > [@](#): > > They’ve met virtually all their promises except schedule. How do you think they’ve done on price? Kept promises there, you think? > [@Balthisar](#): > > Just FYI, 2014 USA sales were north of 16 million. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/210 "2015-09-02T11:06:10Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > Specifically it sounds like you have the C-Max Energi, which isn’t just a trim line. The standard C-Max isn’t a PHEV, just a standard HEV… yes, the Energi. And yes, it’s a lot of fun to drive, especially when you can use in pure electric mode. I love the responsiveness. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/211 "2015-09-02T12:39:45Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > IIRC, the Model X was supposed to go into production two years ago in late 2013. They were supposed to be building 20,000 Model S per year by mid-2012, and in reality they were building 12 a week in August of that year. There’s no way to overlook those failures to deliver. They’re expecting to start shipping[this month](http://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2015/09/01/tesla-high-end-model-x-signature-series-starts-at-132k-with-240-mile-range/). The first models will be fully-loaded, probably because when people went to build them online, they just clicked all the buttons. Starting price:\*\*\* $132k.\*\*\* Yeah, that’s gonna work. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/212 "2015-09-02T14:29:43Z")
I saw that price yesterday and was disappointed. They had stated previously the price point would be siliar to the model S. Hopefully the signature model is much higher than the future model X but I’m not optimistic. At 90K that could be workable since it has more utility and is comparable to high end BMW or Mercedes. At 132K there’s no longer real comparisons and it becomes pure luxury. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/213 "2015-09-02T17:49:25Z")
The article quotes a Tesla spokesman saying the X’s prices and options will be similar to the S’s. Sounds to me like the basic model X would probably start more in the $70s rather that the $100s. ETA: One other question – I had understood that insane/ludicrous mode acceleration was simply a software update to those cars equipped with the proper motors, and the cost is $10 grand. Am I wrong that it’s pretty much software? Are the motors/some other hardware different for these silly features? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2015, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/214 "2015-09-02T18:21:42Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Are the motors/some other hardware different for these silly features? I’m not sure about insane mode, but the ludicrous mode upgrade uses a 3D printed contactor for the motor and some kind of fancy electronic fuse. It also requires the 90 kWh battery. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2015, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/215 "2015-09-03T00:27:46Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > They’re expecting to start shipping[this month](http://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2015/09/01/tesla-high-end-model-x-signature-series-starts-at-132k-with-240-mile-range/). The first models will be fully-loaded, probably because when people went to build them online, they just clicked all the buttons. Starting price:\*\*\* $132k.\*\*\* Yeah, that’s gonna work. And their historic business model has been? Beautiful luxury electric cars built in small numbers. No reason to go to the bank for a loan when people drop $20,000 a year or three in advance. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2015, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/216 "2015-09-03T01:24:21Z")
It’s pretty clear that Tesla’s business model is to greatly expand production so it is not building in small numbers. Tesla is investing a huge amount of money in the Nevada factory for batteries, claiming (and I underline that word) that it will provide enough batteries to build half a million cars per year. A company that is intent on making small numbers of beautiful cars - like maybe Bugatti or something - is not going to ever build such a facility. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2015, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/217 "2015-09-03T01:51:59Z")
It was actually a 40k drop for some people - almost 2-3 years in advance with no interest. But it’s signature. Yay! I am a Tesla fan but in no way is it currently a value prop. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2015, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/218 "2015-09-03T03:40:29Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I think the difference is that Tesla has consistently promised production a short time after a model has been announced - like a year after - and been several years late. Besides, it’s the same pattern shown with other Musk enterprises, especially SpaceX. It’s the same pattern as every engineering-heavy company: you ship “when it’s done,” and not to meet some arbitrary target you set years ago. > [@Ravenman](#): > > So you would say that Boeing met all its promises with the 787? Not quite, but it’s well within the bounds of expected outcomes when it comes to major engineering projects. I could name dozens of others, from architecture to civil engineering to computer games, that also didn’t quite hit their predictions but are nevertheless successes. It goes with the territory. Tesla isn’t an outlier (nor is Boeing). > [@Ravenman](#): > > How do you think they’ve done on price? Kept promises there, you think? More or less. In 2007, they [were talking about](http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/aiaa-houston-2007-2007-07-24) a $50k sedan. In 2012, they [were shipping](http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/01/tesla-kills-the-entry-level-40-kwh-model-s-citing-poor-demand/) the 40 kWh Model S for $52k after tax credit ($60k before). They ultimately killed that model due to low demand, but they did ship it. The current base model is more expensive but also substantially better than what the $50k model was supposed to be. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2015, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/219 "2015-09-03T04:59:09Z")
Of course, a practical electric car would **not** revolutionize American driving – which would be the whole point of it; it would not be adopted by the market if it required any such changes. It would reduce fossil-fuel consumption/emissions, but Americans would still be driving, a whole lot, for lack of mass-transit alternatives. More’s the pity, because the bad effects of American motor-culture are by no means limited to the effects of burnt-hydrocarbon emissions. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2015, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/220 "2015-09-03T11:59:18Z")
Self driving cars will make the larger social change. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537.md?page=12)