# Will the Tesla Model 3 revolutionize Amercan driving? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 30, 2015, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537 "2015-07-30T00:07:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2015, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/221 "2015-09-03T13:48:26Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > It’s the same pattern as every engineering-heavy company: you ship “when it’s done,” and not to meet some arbitrary target you set years ago. The difference is that Tesla (and Space X) DO set high expectations for delivery and consistently fail to meet them. I would bet you that, with the exception of a couple programs, they are worse at delivering on time than any defense contractor. At least for defense contractors, I can name programs that did deliver on time. > [@](#): > > More or less. In 2007, they [were talking about](http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/aiaa-houston-2007-2007-07-24) a $50k sedan. In 2012, they [were shipping](http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/01/tesla-kills-the-entry-level-40-kwh-model-s-citing-poor-demand/) the 40 kWh Model S for $52k after tax credit ($60k before). They ultimately killed that model due to low demand, but they did ship it. The current base model is more expensive but also substantially better than what the $50k model was supposed to be. Boy – if you see a 30% price increase for the entry-level Model S as keeping one’s promise on price, and you think delivering production in three years instead of one year as promised, I guess there’s nothing that Tesla can do that would convince you that their announced plans aren’t worth the electrons they are Tweeted on. Just to pile on, Telsa said in February 2012 that the Model X would be priced close to $49,900. [Cite.](http://www.caranddriver.com/tesla/model-x) Now we come to find out that the entry level X will cost about $5,000 more than the Model S, so starting around $67,000 after the tax credit. Can you at least agree that adding 35% to the estimated cost of the car does not come close to meeting a promise on its price? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2015, 8:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/222 "2015-09-04T08:58:35Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Boy – if you see a 30% price increase for the entry-level Model S as keeping one’s promise on price Now you seem to be pulling numbers from thin air. Tesla promised a car at $50k and indeed you could buy one–after tax credits–at that price. It was subsequently cancelled due to lack of interest. However, even after the cancellation, they delivered cars to those customers who had already ordered. > [@Ravenman](#): > > Now we come to find out that the entry level X will cost about $5,000 more than the Model S, so starting around $67,000 after the tax credit. Can you at least agree that adding 35% to the estimated cost of the car does not come close to meeting a promise on its price? Again, you’re simply ignoring the fact that the baseline Model S was always going to be the 40 kWh model. You’re comparing apples and oranges here. If you really insist on rebranding the 70 kWh series as their promised base model, then you must also acknowledge that it delivers \>60% more range. You don’t get to pretend that they inflated the price and didn’t deliver a much more capable vehicle. Can you imagine applying this same standard to any other industry? Manufacturer X finds that 95% of their customers are happy to pay $10k more for a significantly upgraded product. They wisely discontinue the baseline version. That’s a problem somehow? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2015, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/223 "2015-09-04T11:37:07Z")
If Musk’s businesses didn’t have a repeatable pattern of promising the moon, I might be more inclined to accept that this was simply bad market research on Tesla’s part in misjudging the market for a lower end product. But the pattern repeats: promise the Mode S in a year, and it takes a few more. Same thing with the X. Also, say the S is going to start at one price, and a few years later that price is 30% more. Say that the X will cost $50g, same as the S, and turns out it is 35% more than that AND $5g more than the S. Seriously, that’s a defense contractor version of delivering on promises. But how about this: a friendly wager. If the Model 3 comes out on time, I’ll buy you a nice piece of Tesla swag. If it is more than, say, 4 months late in delivering the first cars, you buy me something cool. I’m even setting aside any promises Elon has made on the price. Deal? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2015, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/224 "2015-09-04T23:31:42Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > It’s pretty clear that Tesla’s business model is to greatly expand production so it is not building in small numbers. Tesla is investing a huge amount of money in the Nevada factory for batteries, claiming (and I underline that word) that it will provide enough batteries to build half a million cars per year. > > A company that is intent on making small numbers of beautiful cars - like maybe Bugatti or something - is not going to ever build such a facility. I read that has a half million electric cars. Not necessarily his. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/225 "2015-09-05T01:05:14Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I read that has a half million electric cars. Not necessarily his. Aye. Tesla’s technology infrastructure is probably worth more than the actual company as it is, in much the same way many innovative tech companies had far more value in their select patents and ideas than in the product they made. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/226 "2015-09-05T01:36:53Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I read that has a half million electric cars. Not necessarily his. Yes, but the high production rate of the batteries is required to bring the cost of The Model 3 down to the projected $35k price tag. There’s simply no way any company wants to be a boutique mid-range family sedan company. Your criticism that they only build small numbers of expensive cars will change when the 3 comes out (whenever that is). ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/227 "2015-09-05T01:48:50Z")
It appears that Tesla plans to have 1m cars on the road by 2020, and 500k annual production by the same date. [http://www.eia.gov/conference/2015/pdf/presentations/straubel.pdf](http://www.eia.gov/conference/2015/pdf/presentations/straubel.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2015, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/228 "2015-09-05T01:51:02Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > But how about this: a friendly wager. If the Model 3 comes out on time, I’ll buy you a nice piece of Tesla swag. If it is more than, say, 4 months late in delivering the first cars, you buy me something cool. I’m even setting aside any promises Elon has made on the price. Deal? I’d rather bet on price than schedule :). I think I’ve been pretty clear that schedule is not their strong point. I wouldn’t make that bet with a 4-month leeway, especially with it being contingent on the Gigafactory. A year, maybe. Tesla has promised a $35k car. Obviously this is intended to include tax rebates and exclude fees and sales tax. I’d bet that they deliver a car for $38.5k or less ($35k + 10% leeway) in California, with the first delivery of that specific model within 3 years from today (i.e., early, expensive “signature editions” don’t count). ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2015, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/229 "2015-09-06T00:49:06Z")
I think people are overrating the range problem. The 2 best-selling cars in the USA are the Honda Civic & Toyota Corolla. Both have a 13.2 gallon tank, and average 30 miles/gallon in real conditions. So that gives them a range of 396 miles. (And with mine, I get nervous whenever the gas gauge gets too close to empty – my realistic range is about 350 miles.) So that’s not too far from the Tesla’s 280 mile range. And this is the best-selling cars – not just 2nd cars. This is quite sufficient for a whole lot of people. Of course, this range can be extended by filling up at a gas station. Which are everywhere now, and often open late hours. (Though the number of stations is dropping now, and they didn’t used to be open those hours.) But fast-charging stations are already beginning to cover the major metro areas where most people live. If electric cars increase as they project, so will the charging stations. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/230 "2015-09-07T02:29:58Z")
> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#): > > But fast-charging stations are already beginning to cover the major metro areas where most people live. If electric cars increase as they project, so will the charging stations. But “fast charge” doesn’t mean three minutes, as it does with gasoline. ---
**Author:** ![Clothahump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@Clothahump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clothahump)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/231 "2015-09-07T18:26:27Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > $35,000 _before_ government subsidies meaning it is in the price range of other new cars. I don’t consider $35k an affordable price for a new car. Most folks don’t, either. If they get it down to the mid-upper $20s, then we have something to talk about. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/232 "2015-09-07T18:33:51Z")
The Chevy Silverado is the second best selling car in the U.S., if I’m reading my stats correctly. According to [Truecar.com](http://Truecar.com), the average price paid for a Silverado 1500 is about $37,000. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/233 "2015-09-07T18:40:35Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > I don’t consider $35k an affordable price for a new car. Most folks don’t, either. If they get it down to the mid-upper $20s, then we have something to talk about. I would wage that there are literally millions of cars purchased in the US every year for over $35,000. An all-electric vehicle with significant range for under $40,000 would be very, very popular. As repeatedly stated, it won’t be a car for everyone and for every purpose. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/234 "2015-09-07T18:52:03Z")
The numbers I found say that the average new car price is about $32,000. So _someone_ is buying cars for $35,000 or more. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/235 "2015-09-07T20:41:40Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > But “fast charge” doesn’t mean three minutes, as it does with gasoline. Well, businesses (and customers) will adjust. Currently, most gas stations make more of their profit from the mini-supermarkets inside than from the gas pumps outside. Hardly any do actual car ‘service’ anymore. As electric cars become more common, you may see these stores remodeling more toward restaurants; adding seating areas, outside patio tables & chairs in good weather locations, etc. Perhaps Starbucks will be the first franchiser to add charging stations to their locations – most already have free wi-fi added. Or perhaps McDonalds: pull in, connect to the charging station, have lunch & read the paper, while the kids go off to the children’s’ play area (an existing amenity in many McDonalds locations). Any business that wants to keep their customers present (& spending) for a longer time might consider adding charging stations. Restaurants, Barbers/hairdressers, etc. Supermarkets might be a good one, especially as the cost of solar panels drops – they have acres of flat roofs to generate their own solar electricity. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/236 "2015-09-07T21:09:13Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I would wage that there are literally millions of cars purchased in the US every year for over $35,000. An all-electric vehicle with significant range for under $40,000 would be very, very popular. As repeatedly stated, it won’t be a car for everyone and for every purpose. Yup! That’s enough range that it would be a useful vehicle for most everyone who has two cars anyway. (which is a large fraction of households.) And I can absolutely see restaraunts and coffee shops adding charging stations to attract custom. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/237 "2015-09-07T21:49:13Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The Chevy Silverado is the second best selling car in the U.S., if I’m reading my stats correctly. According to [Truecar.com](http://Truecar.com), the average price paid for a Silverado 1500 is about $37,000. The average sale price for GM, Ford, and VW cars are [all over $35k](http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/05/04/new-car-transaction-price-3-kbb-kelley-blue-book/26690191/). ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2015, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/238 "2015-09-08T00:20:57Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > The average sale price for GM, Ford, and VW cars are [all over $35k](http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/05/04/new-car-transaction-price-3-kbb-kelley-blue-book/26690191/). And the Volt cost’s how much again? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2015, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/239 "2015-09-08T00:29:10Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > And the Volt cost’s how much again? Who cares, because nobody is buying that mediocre car anyways. And yet, you keep bringing it up like its some kind of zinger against people who agree that the Model S is a damn fine car. Wait, you know Chevy and Telsa are different companies, right? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2015, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/240 "2015-09-08T00:43:24Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The Chevy Silverado is the second best selling car in the U.S., if I’m reading my stats correctly. According to [Truecar.com](http://Truecar.com), the average price paid for a Silverado 1500 is about $37,000. 3 of the top 5 highest selling vehicles are trucks. Gas is $2 a gallon. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537.md?page=13)