# Will the Tesla Model 3 revolutionize Amercan driving? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 30, 2015, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537 "2015-07-30T00:07:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2016, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/741 "2016-01-17T23:37:41Z")
You keep saying or implying I’m a “Tesla fanboy” so until you stop I’m going to keep referencing my first post in this thread, which I’m pretty sure you’ve never read. The Gigafactory is making batteries. They are supposed to be cheaper than what Tesla is now buying them for. I have cited that Elon wants the priority of the Gigafactory to be for car production, including the S and X. A businessman would have to be incompetent to continue sourcing the most expensive component of their product from a sub when insourcing it is purported to eliminate 30% of the cost of that component. And every single cent of those savings from more efficient components turns into profit for Tesla, if they don’t decide to cut the cost of their high end vehicles. For the 3, the lower cost of the car is predicated on the lower cost of the battery, which is probably what is confusing you. And still, you have no cites that indicate that the Gigafactory is going to only produce Powerwalls. It’s a dumb business idea, which is why you can’t back up what you’re saying. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Niply\_Elder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8e8cbc/32.png) [@The\_Niply\_Elder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Niply_Elder)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/742 "2016-01-18T00:21:43Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > First off, you just altered a quote I made. I said: “As it stands now Nissan and GM will be the companies to bring cars to market years ahead of Tesla’s Model 3 and therefore will be the companies that revolutionize American driving.” > > You changed that to: “… and GM will be the … companies that revolutionize American driving.” > > This completely changed what I said. > > I’ve pointed out repeatedly, using quotes from Tesla, that they are not going to be first to market with a low cost 200 mile EV. I’ve also pointed out that they have maxed out their new factory before it’s built which means their tradition of delaying car production is likely to occur again. > > If you don’t understand that being first to market (by years) with a new class of car is a likely factor in how the public perceives such a car then by all means give it a shot. It does not change anything that you’ve said. I have three words for you to chew on: Bolt = no supercharging Oh and another three Bolt = no infrastructure And three more Bolt = 20000 units In what alternate universe does this revolutionizing of American driving happen for you exactly? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/743 "2016-01-18T00:29:25Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > You keep saying or implying I’m a “Tesla fanboy” so until you stop I’m going to keep referencing my first post in this thread, which I’m pretty sure you’ve never read. You’re first post quote: “maybe that’s because the Leaf is designed by a whole company, not an amazing superbillionaire who is going to Mars on a rocket powered by attention.” > [@Ravenman](#): > > The Gigafactory is making batteries. No,it’s not. It’s assembling batteries from Panasonic for their power storage products. > [@Ravenman](#): > > They are supposed to be cheaper than what Tesla is now buying them for. I have cited that Elon wants the priority of the Gigafactory to be for car production, including the S and X. A businessman would have to be incompetent to continue sourcing the most expensive component of their product from a sub when insourcing it is purported to eliminate 30% of the cost of that component. And every single cent of those savings from more efficient components turns into profit for Tesla, if they don’t decide to cut the cost of their high end vehicles. For the 3, the lower cost of the car is predicated on the lower cost of the battery, which is probably what is confusing you. > > And still, you have no cites that indicate that the Gigafactory is going to only produce Powerwalls. It’s a dumb business idea, which is why you can’t back up what you’re saying. And yet again you’ve claimed something I haven’t said. I’m done repeating myself. We’ll see which business group takes a delay. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/744 "2016-01-18T00:41:46Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We’ll see which business group takes a delay. We already know: > [@](#): > > Faced with growing demand for Powerpacks and Powerwalls, we have accelerated our plans to expand manufacturing capacity. In early Q4, we relocated production from Fremont to an automated assembly line at the Gigafactory. This positions us for strong growth in 2016, but the Gigafactory pull-ahead **will push some Tesla Energy Q4 production and deliveries into Q1.** Already those customers are seeing delays in deliveries - something you say is impossible. [http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1362406078x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3\_15\_Shareholder\_Letter.pdf](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1362406078x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/745 "2016-01-18T01:17:55Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > We already know:Already those customers are seeing delays in deliveries - something you say is impossible. > > [http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1362406078x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3\_15\_Shareholder\_Letter.pdf](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1362406078x0x858516/F50A9FAF-BA73-4263-8E16-DE1FAC0BABDF/Q3_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf) :smack: I posted that they had already sold out 2016. What part of that did you not understand? They’re already behind. They’ve already transferred assembly to the gigafactory. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/746 "2016-01-18T01:23:51Z")
You said Tesla can’t delay deliveries to businesses. It has already happened. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/747 "2016-01-18T02:02:26Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > You said Tesla can’t delay deliveries to businesses. It has already happened. Oh my god. You can’t be this argumentative in public. Again, what part of “they already have orders for all of 2016” were you confused about? Did you think I inferred they spit one out like a soda machine when money is dropped into a slot? The Model 3 is over a year away from production. Do you really believe they will defer production of a runway product that has a $1 billion purchase orders for this? EV’s will continue to shadow ICE cars as long as gasoline is cheap and batteries cannot be recharged in a few minutes. The best selling plug in today is not Tesla, it’s Ford’s Fusion hybrid plug in. It only has a range of 20 miles. Battery storage systems are a different matter. They serve a different market entirely and are a very hot commodity. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/748 "2016-01-18T03:21:49Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > … The best selling plug in today is not Tesla, it’s Ford’s Fusion hybrid plug in. It only has a range of 20 miles. > … This suggests that the Ford fusion is number 5, after the tesla, leaf, volt, and BMW i3. All of which have at least twice the electric range of the fusion. [http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/](http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/749 "2016-01-18T04:19:35Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > This suggests that the Ford fusion is number 5, after the tesla, leaf, volt, and BMW i3. All of which have at least twice the electric range of the fusion. > > [Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard: Historical Charts](http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) It doesn’t suggest it, it says it right out. You are correct. I read a very poorly written cite. The correct answer is… [BYD, a Chinese company.](http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101883_who-sold-the-most-plug-in-electric-cars-in-2015-its-not-tesla-or-nissan) I find that very disturbing. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Niply\_Elder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8e8cbc/32.png) [@The\_Niply\_Elder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Niply_Elder)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/750 "2016-01-18T06:42:06Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > It doesn’t suggest it, it says it right out. You are correct. I read a very poorly written cite. The correct answer is… [BYD, a Chinese company.](http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101883_who-sold-the-most-plug-in-electric-cars-in-2015-its-not-tesla-or-nissan) I find that very disturbing. The problem is not a poorly written article, it’s your reading comprehension and inability to formulate a cohesive argument that stays on point. Plug in hybrids are not even in the same category as electric vehicles. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/751 "2016-01-18T16:11:37Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > When in the history of the Universe did I say they won’t be successful? . About a hundred times you brought up their financials ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/752 "2016-01-18T16:41:14Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > About a hundred times you brought up their financials And that nobody wants electric cars unless they can recharge in five minutes; Tesla can’t be successful if they are beaten to market by another company; that their best products are actually shoddy; and that the big auto companies are going to bury Tesla with their production capacity. There’s 14 pages of different reasons why you think Tesla is the worst car company in history. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2016, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/753 "2016-01-18T23:34:12Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > what are you talking about? It’s a straight forward car. What “feature” did they take from Tesla S? Wheels? A steering Wheel? USB ports? > > Seriously, what are you talking about? The car itself sits high like a Prius, if not more so because of the location of the battery pack under the cabin. If CES 2016 is any indication, **it seems like all electric vehicles going forward will borrow the Tesla Model S “battery between the wheels” layout scheme.** Faraday and others had no problems copying this, and for good reason: it makes repairs and replacements easy, creating a low center of gravity and lots of space. The Bolt is no different, and Chevy used the opportunity to make the wheelbase longer. **In a nod to Tesla** , the Chevy rep told us that customers want physical buttons when they drive What I did like was the “One Petal” drive mode, which is a lot like\*\* the re-gen mode on the Tesla\*\*… ETA: I think a lot of people are thinking similarly to this guy in the comments > [@](#): > > Personally, if I can buy a more affordable luxury brand whose software I trust for the same price as a non luxury brand whose software is unknown, I would buy the luxury vehicle. While GM has been making cars longer, Tesla has been making modern electric cars longer and GM will have to fight on price to get market share. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/754 "2016-01-19T02:27:51Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > The car itself sits high like a Prius, if not more so because of the location of the battery pack under the cabin. If CES 2016 is any indication, **it seems like all electric vehicles going forward will borrow the Tesla Model S “battery between the wheels” layout scheme.** Faraday and others had no problems copying this, and for good reason: it makes repairs and replacements easy, creating a low center of gravity and lots of space. The Bolt is no different, and Chevy used the opportunity to make the wheelbase longer. Do you see this as borrowing from Tesla? Given a box battery set up it seems like the only logical way of designing the car. > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > **In a nod to Tesla** , the Chevy rep told us that customers want physical buttons when they drive. that seems logical. > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > What I did like was the “One Petal” drive mode, which is a lot like\*\* the re-gen mode on the Tesla\*\*… There has been a natural transition to “drive by wire” design in all things automotive. By eliminating manual controls it means the same computer can control the same objects in every car regardless of physical constraints. I personally hate losing things like manual heater controls because those things don’t break. However, it must drive down the cost of design. There’s no denying wires are easier to route then hard controls. > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > ETA: I think a lot of people are thinking similarly to this guy in the comments One of the thing Musk talks about is modular design. I think there is going to be a lot of this with electric cars because their layouts are similar whether it’s an entry level car or luxury sedan. In fact I will make a prediction now. The differences between luxury cars and entry level EV cars will blur in comparison to ICE cars. That’s because performance will no longer rely on significantly larger/expensive engines and complex transmissions. It will be easy to offer the same motor in any car. And the base layout will be so similar that it would cost extra to differentiate them. The same will apply to computers. It would cost extra to leave out anything a computer can do such as blue tooth or GPS tracking. The program ability of computers means they have unlimited potential for electronic extras. Tesla’s introduction of a luxury line of EV’s carries with it a certain natural design flow that they can be credited with. But I think EV’s would have taken their general layout with or without them. I predict Tesla will be most remembered for dramatically compressing the price point between the most frugal and most expensive cars. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/755 "2016-01-19T02:45:06Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > About a hundred times you brought up their financials Yes and that was always in reference to their inability to meet a deadline. They’re not really close to putting a Model 3 on the road and when you factor in their traditional delay it is opportunity lost to it’s competitors measured in years. This is a big deal because their plan for the Model 3 involved the gigafactory. With the success of the power storage line of products the dynamics have changed. Something is going to have to take a back seat and there are other companies building EV’s and power storage units. Mercedes Benz is now taking orders for their battery storage systems. The lines of production are blurring so quickly that upstarts like Faraday are pulling engineering resources out of Tesla. It’s rumored that Apple is behind this. For all I know we could be driving Google or Amazon cars in 5 years. This is not a “who loves Tesla” thread. It’s about specifically about the Model 3 and how it will “revolutionize” American driving. I’ve put forward a premise that the first entry level cars to market will be the ones that revolutionize the driving experience. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/756 "2016-01-19T02:48:26Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > what possible point do you think you’re making. If tomorrow they said they decided to build another plant it doesn’t affect anything in 2016 or 2017. It will take that long to finish the current one. _You_ are the one making the argument that the Gigafactory output is totally overcommitted and that somehow this will cause big problems for Tesla. In reality, they will have plenty of time to scale GF1 further, and to start building a second. They won’t sell 500k Model 3s in the first year. And any production in 2016 will go to Powerwalls exclusively. > [@Magiver](#): > > The Model S is a luxury car. The Bolt and Leaf are not designed to compete with it on any level. Sales or otherwise. If they can’t compete on volume, then they do not have a mass market car, by definition. Again, _you_ are the one claiming that the Model S is not revolutionary because it occupies a small niche. Fine. But it means that the niches that the Bolt and Leaf occupy are _even smaller_. By your own standards, it means they cannot possibly be revolutionary. The Model 3 is the only car that can possibly sell hundreds of thousands annually within a few years. > [@Magiver](#): > > Caution is the wrong word. They predicted 20-30,000. That’s what their research suggests. In other words, they are waiting for the Model 3 to prove that the market supports volume past that point. In the meantime, they are just practicing. Which means, again, that the Model 3 will be the revolutionary car. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/757 "2016-01-19T02:58:06Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > And that nobody wants electric cars unless they can recharge in five minutes; Tesla can’t be successful if they are beaten to market by another company; that their best products are actually shoddy; and that the big auto companies are going to bury Tesla with their production capacity. > > There’s 14 pages of different reasons why you think Tesla is the worst car company in history. I have never said anything along these lines. I’ve given detailed reasons why Tesla will be late to the game with the Model 3. Electric cars were superior to ICE cars in most respects 100 years ago yet something significant pushed them aside. That was the utility of rapid transit. I’ve said repeatedly that a 5 minute fast charge battery will kill ICE cars. That’s a far cry from saying nobody wants them. I’ve heaped a great deal of praise on their Model S as a game changer in high performance cars. They have virtually forced high end sports cars to match their performance/price point. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/758 "2016-01-19T03:03:22Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > _You_ are the one making the argument that the Gigafactory output is totally overcommitted and that somehow this will cause big problems for Tesla. sigh. I quoted Tesla regarding this. It’s not my opinion that their sales have grown exponentially. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/759 "2016-01-19T04:45:32Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > sigh. I quoted Tesla regarding this. It’s not my opinion that their sales have grown exponentially. Your source said that they could use the entire output of the Gigafactory, not that they would. Tesla is under no obligation to sell all the units they could possibly produce, regardless of other interests (like Model 3 production). It is furthermore entirely your opinion that this state of affairs is a problem. Being able to sell every unit of product is generally considered a good thing. No one says that Apple is in financial trouble because every iPhone sells out on launch day. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537/760 "2016-01-19T21:25:34Z")
The battery design may seem logical but like a lot of inventions and innovations the rest of the world only sees the logic after someone else does it. > [@Magiver](#): > > One of the thing Musk talks about is modular design. I think there is going to be a lot of this with electric cars because their layouts are similar whether it’s an entry level car or luxury sedan. In fact I will make a prediction now. The differences between luxury cars and entry level EV cars will blur in comparison to ICE cars. That’s because performance will no longer rely on significantly larger/expensive engines and complex transmissions. It will be easy to offer the same motor in any car. And the base layout will be so similar that it would cost extra to differentiate them. The same will apply to computers. It would cost extra to leave out anything a computer can do such as blue tooth or GPS tracking. The program ability of computers means they have unlimited potential for electronic extras. You want to talk about Musk falling behind the timeline you should focus on this. Tesla was talking about modular bodies for the Roadster before it came ouit and it still hasn’t happened. Can you imagine buying the Model S frame and putting on a lightweight coupe body for a 300 mi cruise in the mountains then the next day put on the mini SUV body - sure you only get 80 miles on a full charge but you’re just taking the kids to practice and back. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-tesla-model-3-revolutionize-amercan-driving/726537.md?page=39)