# Will the world be mostly Muslim in 50 years? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 18, 2014, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806 "2014-09-18T08:34:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![nani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/58956e/32.png) [@nani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nani)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/21 "2014-09-20T17:21:36Z")
While polling data is very scarce, it seems that the number of conversions to Islam are more or less matched by the number of people leaving. In that case, the key thing to look at seems to be birthrate, which is falling in almost every country. With the stigma that often comes with apostasy (Which can have very real consequences, even in Western countries, and don’t just come from Muslims), former Muslims don’t have much of a voice at the moment, with a few exceptions. Many remain closeted. Recently some groups hoping to change this have sprung up, including the [Ex-Muslims of North America.](http://www.exmna.org/) While I think the secularization thesis advanced by many is not very accurate, it will be very interesting to see how increased social contact and internet access and other things change Muslims communities in the future. Nothing forces change like visibility. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/22 "2014-09-20T19:34:36Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > And do you seriously believe that most Muslims fear being hunted down and killed if they change religions … It seems like you are saying that former Muslims do not live under the fear of death. Is this true ? If so can you please provide a cite ? From what I understand, Muslims take insults in form of even speaking ill of the religion very seriously and hunt down the offenders : case in point Salman Rushdie had to get special protection in the UK. Same with the Dutch cartoonist. So I wonder what evidence you have to suggest that apostasy is without peril for the Muslim in a developed country? ---
**Author:** ![Saintly\_Loser](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saintly_loser/32/4045_2.png) [@Saintly\_Loser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saintly_Loser)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/23 "2014-09-20T19:43:27Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > It seems like you are saying that former Muslims do not live under the fear of death. Is this true ? If so can you please provide a cite ? > > From what I understand, Muslims take insults in form of even speaking ill of the religion very seriously and hunt down the offenders : case in point Salman Rushdie had to get special protection in the UK. Same with the Dutch cartoonist. So I wonder what evidence you have to suggest that apostasy is without peril for the Muslim in a developed country? Well, _some_ Muslims take insults very seriously. I doubt that most Muslims in, say, Indonesia (or Dearborn, for that matter) have even heard of Salman Rushdie. And, as to the apostate being in peril, there’s a big difference between Salman Rushdie and your average guy named Mohammed who lives in Brooklyn and hasn’t set foot in a mosque in years and has shaved off his beard and forgotten the little bit of Arabic he learned from his grandparents. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/24 "2014-09-20T21:48:13Z")
> [@Saintly\_Loser](#): > > And, as to the apostate being in peril, there’s a big difference between Salman Rushdie and your average guy named Mohammed who lives in Brooklyn and hasn’t set foot in a mosque in years and has shaved off his beard and forgotten the little bit of Arabic he learned from his grandparents. In the previous posts you claimed that Muslim apostates in the western world do not fear mortal danger. Now you are saying - that non practicing Muslims in Brooklyn or such places in the western world do not get any attention from other Muslims. since this GQ - I am asking you evidence for this ? Give me some cites please - any publication will be okay. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/25 "2014-09-20T22:08:18Z")
As mentioned, high birthrates are an adaptation to poverty, where kids fill the role of farm labor and a retirement account. In richer societies, kids having lots of kids becomes much less attractive as they need an enormous investment (in education) before they become all that useful. Birthrates fall when people get off the farm and start needing to send their kids to school. As it happens, I know a Muslim apostate. My guard in Cameroon converted to Islam after leaving his small Christian village and moving to the big city where Islam was definitely a sign of prestige. He lasted about a week before he decided that praying five times a day wasn’t much fun. Nobody killed him. It was a non-issue. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/26 "2014-09-20T22:23:26Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > The envelopes are to put your Sunday collection check in, which is deposited in the basket they pass around every Sunday Mass. It is a convenience. Why don’t you call the parish office, and tell them to stop sending them? They aren’t being sent from the Vatican. Above my pay grade.😃 Seriously, you’d think after ten years they’d figure it out… ---
**Author:** ![DingoelGringo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@DingoelGringo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DingoelGringo)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/27 "2014-09-20T22:34:28Z")
20 years ago more or less there was a book called ‘The Birth Dearth.’ Lamenting the fact that white Americans weren’t having enough babies to maintain their superior position above the “other races.” Probably more closely related to reality that this babble. ---
**Author:** ![DingoelGringo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@DingoelGringo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DingoelGringo)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/28 "2014-09-20T22:40:39Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > It seems like you are saying that former Muslims do not live under the fear of death. Is this true ? If so can you please provide a cite ? > > From what I understand, Muslims take insults in form of even speaking ill of the religion very seriously and hunt down the offenders : case in point Salman Rushdie had to get special protection in the UK. Same with the Dutch cartoonist. So I wonder what evidence you have to suggest that apostasy is without peril for the Muslim in a developed country? Some Southern Christians have been known to beat their teen agers when stop going to church every Sunday. Mortal peril? no. ---
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2014, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/29 "2014-09-20T22:51:32Z")
No Christianity will be the biggest religion then as it is now, Islam will be the second in command. ---
**Author:** ![Saintly\_Loser](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saintly_loser/32/4045_2.png) [@Saintly\_Loser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saintly_Loser)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/30 "2014-09-21T01:32:31Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > In the previous posts you claimed that Muslim apostates in the western world do not fear mortal danger. Now you are saying - that non practicing Muslims in Brooklyn or such places in the western world do not get any attention from other Muslims. > > since this GQ - I am asking you evidence for this ? Give me some cites please - any publication will be okay. The post to which you’re replying was my only post in this thread – don’t know about any previous posts. I have no idea what kind of attention non-practicing Muslims in Brooklyn, or anywhere else in the west, get. It probably varies wildly. I can tell you that I know, personally, a fair number of completely secularized Muslims (if calling them Muslims is appropriate when they’re not religious). One from Turkey. Another US-born of Yemeni parents. Two Americans whose parents were Pakistani immigrants. None of them live in fear. None of them give the whole thing a second thought, really. My cite? Sorry don’t have one, other than the non-religious Muslims I know and work with every day. Or live next door to. ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/31 "2014-09-21T03:11:50Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > as populatons get richer they also tend to spend less time and effort on religion. > > Cite? [Importance of religion is negatively correlated with wealth.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_and_religion) ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/32 "2014-09-21T05:23:31Z")
Just last Sunday at church we had a man who spoke who came from Iraq and was raised a Sunni Muslim but switched to Christianity. He hasnt told his parents back in Iraq though and he avoids other Arabs because he knows his life could be in danger. Over time I feel there will be enough Muslim converts that they wont feel afraid to speak and that will be a tipping point for world Muslim growth. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/33 "2014-09-21T10:33:08Z")
It seems a lot of people have confused “Muslim” with “middle eastern Islamic extremist”. The latter represents (total WAG) 5% of the worldwide Muslim population. And they represent a positive danger to a further (total WAG) 20% of the worldwide Muslim population who live in close proximity to those extremists. The other (subtractive WAG) 75% of Muslims don’t have much interest in extremism, nor fear of encountering it in daily life. To be sure, a lot of the 75% are relatively poor, relatively ignorant peasants or urban poor stretched in an arc from Afghanistan though Pakistan to Indonesia to the Philipines. And as noted by others above, poverty correlates strongly with both piety & with birth rate. Which therefore correlates with producing lots of strict adherents in the next generation. My bottom line: IMO … No, the Muslims will not become the majority ethnic or religious group in 50 or 100 years. And certainly not in the scary extreme form; all that internecine violence is real bad for net reproduction. And no, most citified non-celebrity Muslims in most reasonably prosperous parts of the world have nothing to fear from abandoning Islam beyond mild social ostracism. About the same degree of ostracism I as a devout atheist felt during the 20 years I lived in the US Midwest. Some topics are simply better left unmentioned with almost all casual acquaintances & not a few friends. As to demographic disasters we really \*do \*need to worry over … I’m waiting for the Chinese gov’t / Party to notice the adverse trajectory they’re on and then to swap the (already fading) one-child policy for a three-or-more-child policy. They’re the ethnic / cultural group with the big head start that can breed more prodigiously than we and overwhelm us when they emerge. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/34 "2014-09-21T11:47:28Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > As to demographic disasters we really \*do \*need to worry over … > > I’m waiting for the Chinese gov’t / Party to notice the adverse trajectory they’re on and then to swap the (already fading) one-child policy for a three-or-more-child policy. They’re the ethnic / cultural group with the big head start that can breed more prodigiously than we and overwhelm us when they emerge. No, if they were foolish enough to do that China would collapse. They’d be too busy dying to “overwhelm” anyone. They don’t have a magical infinite supply of food and drinkable water and so on. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/35 "2014-09-21T12:23:19Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > As to demographic disasters we really \*do \*need to worry over … > > I’m waiting for the Chinese gov’t / Party to notice the adverse trajectory they’re on and then to swap the (already fading) one-child policy for a three-or-more-child policy. They’re the ethnic / cultural group with the big head start that can breed more prodigiously than we and overwhelm us when they emerge. Well, the so-called one-child policy already had exemptions for China’s ethnic minorities. And, of late, some provinces and major cities have changed the policy to one that’s effectively a two-child policy even for the Han majority. Of course, urban costs, including education costs, likely will keep many people voluntarily to one child. The reason, of course, for those local governments to be tweaking the policy is China’s aging population. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/36 "2014-09-21T12:24:38Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Just last Sunday at church we had a man who spoke who came from Iraq and was raised a Sunni Muslim but switched to Christianity. He hasnt told his parents back in Iraq though and he avoids other Arabs because he knows his life could be in danger. He knows his life in danger or he merely thinks his life is in danger in the west? ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/37 "2014-09-21T15:12:56Z")
Where was the commentator in that video 75 years ago, when nearly all of the world’s Muslims were living under the absolute authority and tyranny of Christian colonial empires? How come that wasn’t so bad for them, nothing for them to be alarmed about? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/38 "2014-09-21T16:49:37Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > No, if they were foolish enough to do that China would collapse. They’d be too busy dying to “overwhelm” anyone. They don’t have a magical infinite supply of food and drinkable water and so on. > [@Monty](#): > > Well, the so-called one-child policy already had exemptions for China’s ethnic minorities. And, of late, some provinces and major cities have changed the policy to one that’s effectively a two-child policy even for the Han majority. Of course, urban costs, including education costs, likely will keep many people voluntarily to one child. The reason, of course, for those local governments to be tweaking the policy is China’s aging population. I was mostly kidding; I see my little Dr. Strangelove in-joke went over your heads. Speaking seriously … I agree the Chinese would have a hard time supporting a significantly larger population without even more rapid environmental devastation. OTOH, they’re gonna have a hard time maintaining their economy much less paying for the current population’s old age once the already fore-ordained working-age population decline sets in. I’m not sure which outcome the CCP leadership will find scarier. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2014, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/39 "2014-09-21T17:45:49Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Not to pick an argument but… > > My understanding is that if you are born to Muslim parents, then by default you are Muslim. If your definition of “Muslim” is that broad, then one wonders what it even matters if 50.1% of the world’s population meets such a generic standard. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2014, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806/40 "2014-09-22T02:20:53Z")
I think Muslim is a little different - I was born to parents who were “officially” christian, yet I have never been considered a christian, never been christened / baptised and never been part of a church. Islam seems a little different in that regard. It might not matter to those of you in the US, but round here we regularly get news stories about conflicts arising within families because the children are “recognised” as being Muslim without any overt action on the parents’ part - normally the conflict arises between a Muslim father and a mother of another religion in cases of divorce, and it is settled in the courts. I guess it must just be cultural differences, but please do realise - not all share the “American experience” of freedom from religion, in some countries it does matter what religion you are “born into” and the state WILL “recognise” your religion [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-world-be-mostly-muslim-in-50-years/698806.md?page=3)