# Will there be a missing generation of Hall of Fame QBs? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [September 12, 2023, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980 "2023-09-12T12:47:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/41 "2023-09-13T01:55:37Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > As a Raiders fan, it would drive me batty to hear people yakking up Elway, before he won anything at least. Most overrated QB in the past half century. Eli Manning? ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/42 "2023-09-13T01:59:49Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > > [@John\_DiFool](#): > > > > Most overrated QB in the past half century. > > Eli Manning? Joe Namath (Does he count? Is he more than a half century ago?) ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/43 "2023-09-13T02:05:46Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Eli Manning? Eh, he’s not that celebrated. I’d say he’s “rated”. He had some great moments in a mostly mediocre career. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/44 "2023-09-13T02:13:02Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > As others have intimated, he wasn’t really close to the top guys. Yeah, he deserves credit for his 2 late championships, but he and Aikman are both only in the Hall because of their rings, and are in fact very similar to each other. [Adjusted yards/pass, which takes sacks and ints into account, has them @ 6.5 and 6.3, when Marino, Young, and Montana are all in the 7’s (7.0, 7.3, and 7.9.] People argue for Elway’s greatness based on him dragging mediocre teams to the Superbowl multiple times. I went back to look to see if Elway’s Broncos eliminated Marino’s Dolphins, but then noticed something strange. How is it that the Miami Dolphins did not even make the playoffs from 86 through 89? You would think the strength of Dan Marino alone would at least get them into the playoffs, but apparently there was a four-year playoff drought during Marino’s prime. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/45 "2023-09-13T02:19:46Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > How is it that the Miami Dolphins did not even make the playoffs from 86 through 89? No running game, and no defense. (And eventually, due to drugs, no Marks brothers) > **[NFL SUSPENDS DUPER, SCOTT FOR 30 DAYS](https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1988/12/01/nfl-suspends-duper-scott-for-30-days/7d930666-af4c-40e9-933d-b0ba507f230a/)** > **[SI: CLAYTON ‘BIG USER’ OF COCAINE](https://www.orlandosentinel.com/1989/02/02/si-clayton-big-user-of-cocaine/)** > > Miami Dolphins receiver Mark Clayton has used cocaine since 1983 and received the drug before a game this year, according to a Sports Illustrated article that quotes a Florida state prosecutor̵… In 86 Marino threw 44 touchdowns. They went 8-8. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/46 "2023-09-13T02:24:31Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > No running game, and no defense. I didn’t really become an NFL fan until 1990. Were the '80s Broncos known for their running game and defense? ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/47 "2023-09-13T02:35:05Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Were the '80s Broncos known for their running game and defense? Dan Marino didn’t have a thousand yard rusher until 1996. His rookie year was 1983. And the defense of the late 80s was atrocious. Eric Kumerow. TJ Turner. Joey and Nick Bosa’s dad. The only good player was John Offerdahl, a linebacker. (Remember too that 87 was a strike year. Some of the games were played by replacement players) Once the defense got better in the 90s, Marino started going to the playoffs again. Only problem was that Miami consistently ran into Jim Kelly’s Bills. I actually rate Elway higher than a lot of others here. He was more mobile than Marino, and had a cannon. He probably led some teams to Super Bowls that didn’t necessarily belong there, and wouldn’t have made it without riding his shoulders. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/48 "2023-09-13T03:25:15Z")
It’s important to mention Eli in this group because it drives Peyton nuts. ---
**Author:** ![LoneRhino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lonerhino/32/1311_2.png) [@LoneRhino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LoneRhino)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/49 "2023-09-13T06:06:58Z")
The idea that John Elway wasn’t a top tier QB is nuts. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/50 "2023-09-13T13:54:00Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Poor John Elway getting no love in this thread. He should be mentioned with Montana and Marino as he was definitely in their class, not a tier below. I flat-out forgot about him. I agree, he belongs up there with them. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/51 "2023-09-13T14:34:29Z")
As I knew it would, Elway’s reputation precedes him, even on the Dope. At some point in the media, long before his championships, the media in this country somehow got it into their head that he was a top tier QB, thanks mainly to a few highly-publicized 4th quarter comebacks, and most football fans simply never questioned it. He wasn’t. So, taking a firm look at his stats, you can’t help but notice (or not notice) certain things. The only rate categories he led the league in were in 1993, in yards/game (when he also was on top in attempts, completions, and yards). His TD to Int ratio was mediocre for the era he played in (4.1 to 3.1). As I said, his adjusted yards per attempt was 6.5, which was decent and got him several top 10’s, but he never really came close to leading. His completion percentage was a mediocre 57%, and that isn’t compensated all that much by avg. yards per completion, as in many bombs (12.5, when Steve Young and his West Coast Offense scheme and all the short passes was 12.4). Now, while his 1st 10 seasons were not HoF quality, he did as I said upthread significantly improve for his last 6 seasons: TD/Int was 4.9 to 2.4, adj. yards per attempt 7.2. But even with that figured in his numbers pale to his 3 contemporaries. Someone mentioned running upthread, but he has no case there either: 4.4 yards per attempt, maximum of 304 yards one year, which make for no comparison to the likes of Randall Cunningham. Steve Young easily outclasses him here too note (5.9, high of 537 yards). He also got sacked a fair amount too, quite a bit more than Montana/Marino/Young did. He isn’t the worst QB in the Hall by a long shot, understand; even tho I adored Snake Stabler he got in based on one title and 2 Pro Bowl level seasons. But if you are seeing if Elway belongs in the Pantheon, there really isn’t any argument that he does. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/52 "2023-09-13T15:43:03Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Oh, now I see what you mean. Yeah, there is kind of an oddly large 10-year gap in HoF candidates at the QB position. I’d bet there’s some sort of statistical wave-type thing that happens where the best quarterbacks are drafted at the tail-end of the last batch’s careers, or shortly thereafter. I mean, if you look 10 years back from Montana, Marino, etc… you’ve got Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Fran Tarkenton, Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, and Bob Griese. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/53 "2023-09-13T21:47:12Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > His TD to Int ratio was mediocre for the era he played in (4.1 to 3.1). > [@John\_DiFool](#): > > Now, while his 1st 10 seasons were not HoF quality, he did as I said upthread significantly improve for his last 6 seasons: TD/Int was 4.9 to 2.4 How should I be reading this ratio? Are those like TDs and INTs per 100 passes or something? Why not just give the ratio between the two numbers? ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/54 "2023-09-13T23:34:21Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I’d bet there’s some sort of statistical wave-type thing that happens where the best quarterbacks are drafted at the tail-end of the last batch’s careers, or shortly thereafter. Regardless, my main takeaway from this thread is that when a quarterback is described as a “generational talent”, it’s not completely hyperbole. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/55 "2023-09-13T23:36:45Z")
A bit surprised an NFL fan doesn’t know basic QB stats. But yes out of 100 attempts. A ratio would remove meaning from the proceedings: a 4:3 would mean you wouldn’t know if it was 4.0/3.0 or 2.0/1.5. I’d rather have the latter since avoiding interceptions is more crucial than throwing TD’s (since a completion near the goal line will usually mean a rushing TD is coming). Anyway, the [Bleacher Report](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/778095-john-elway-why-hes-the-most-overrated-athlete-of-all-time) has a very good summary that dovetails closely with my analysis. Also notes that he was horrendous in all of his Super Bowls except the last one. I’d have him quite a bit lower than 10th too (this was written in 2011 note). ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2023, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980/56 "2023-09-16T15:00:08Z")
Those aren’t “basic QB stats.” They are analytics geek stats. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-there-be-a-missing-generation-of-hall-of-fame-qbs/989980.md?page=2)