# Will this discovery \[of mineral deposits in Afghanistan\] mean the end of al Quaida?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [June 14, 2010, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087 "2010-06-14T02:55:29Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/1 "2010-06-14T02:55:29Z")
Could [this discovery](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html?hp) change the entire dynamic of the Middle East and possibly mean the end of Al Quaida? Why would Afghanistan need the poppy trade with bazillions in mineral wealth at their disposal? Why would they have to continue to put up with al Quaida’s bully tactics. It would seem that this is a huge incentive to turn these fuckers out and start telling the government where they’re holed up, especially if the citizens stand to have jobs and a share of the wealth.
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### Author:  [@Duke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/2 "2010-06-14T03:00:09Z")
Well, we all know that large deposits of oil have completely quashed radical fundamentalist groups in countries like, say, Saudi Arabia.
I’m not optimistic.
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### Author:  [@Race\_Harley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Race_Harley)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/3 "2010-06-14T03:02:32Z")
Could this be a reason why were sending close to 100,000 troops into the area? You know they didn’t just find this yesterday… only that they’re letting onto the public because someone was going to drop the dime. :dubious:
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### Author:  [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/4 "2010-06-14T03:04:34Z")
There’s plenty of oil in Colombia…
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### Author:  [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/5 "2010-06-14T03:14:56Z")
I think this will make the problem worse. The terrorists are already fighting for religious motivations; this will just give them a secular motive as well. Plus if they control access to valuable resources this will be enough incetnive for less scrupulous countries and corporations to make deals with them and provide them with financial support.
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### Author:  [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/6 "2010-06-14T03:33:43Z")
First it’s going to take a while to exploit those deposits (I’m assuming here that they actually exist).
Second, there are already some African countries with big reserves of oil, for instance, and where most citizens are still dirt poor (and where oil rigs must be guarded by what almost amounts to a private military).
Also, the existence of such reserves might aggravate the situation in some cases, leading locals to fight over the control of those riches (see diamonds in Africa again, or oil reserves near the Kurd territory in Iraq, etc…)
No way it’s going to solve the Afghan issue on the short term.
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### Author:  [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/7 "2010-06-14T03:44:36Z")
It just seems that if the government set this up properly, guaranteeing equal shares to everyone in the country (a la the Alaska oil dividend), there would be a huge incentive to clear the way for developers to come in. Yeah, it probably won’t play out that way, but it would be nice if people in that part of the world would stop slaughtering each other in the name of “god”.
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### Author:  [@Stan\_Shmenge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stan_Shmenge)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/8 "2010-06-14T04:20:40Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#):
>
> I think this will make the problem worse. The terrorists are already fighting for religious motivations; this will just give them a secular motive as well. Plus if they control access to valuable resources this will be enough incetnive for less scrupulous countries and corporations to make deals with them and provide them with financial support.
Just something more to fight over.☹
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### Author:  [@Stan\_Shmenge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stan_Shmenge)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/9 "2010-06-14T04:21:42Z")
> [@Chefguy](#):
>
> It just seems that if the government set this up properly, guaranteeing equal shares to everyone in the country (a la the Alaska oil dividend), there would be a huge incentive to clear the way for developers to come in. Yeah, it probably won’t play out that way, but it would be nice if people in that part of the world would stop slaughtering each other in the name of “god”.
Good luck with that.
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### Author:  [@gravitycrash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gravitycrash)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/10 "2010-06-14T04:55:18Z")
Great. Something else to fight over. Religion and tribalism is bad enough, now they can throw greed and even more corruption into the mix.
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### Author:  [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/11 "2010-06-14T05:19:45Z")
Is [this](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html?no_interstitial) really such a revelation? Will it in fact make a major difference in Afghan development? Will the foreign-investment potential fizzle out on account of political instability, as in “Year Zero” Baghdad? What’s likely to happen?
> [@](#):
>
> The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.
>
> The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.
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### Author:  [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/12 "2010-06-14T05:33:00Z")
I doubt it will make anything but a surface level change, at least in the short and medium term. I suppose you can’t extract a trillion dollars worth of natural resources without SOME benefit scraping off on the local populace in the form of jobs and infrastructure (I’d say that it’s a given that SOMEONE will exploit that level of resources…eventually anyway), but it won’t be any time soon.
Even if they discovered unobtainium by the bushel basket full I’m thinking it wouldn’t make much of a dent in the short or medium term. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the long term, but I’m not sanguine, given the levels of local systematic corruption. I think that, at best, you’d get something similar to many of the oil rich ME nations, with a few locals with large bank accounts and a thin veneer of wealth painted on the rest of the populace…just enough to keep them semi-quiet and vaguely content.
-XT
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### Author:  [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/13 "2010-06-14T05:35:32Z")
If it is transformed, I would assume it’ll be more like the transformations seen in Sierra Leone due to the income from diamonds.
Various groups fighting for the natural resources domestically combined with international governments (China, Russia, the US, etc) fighting to establish influence due to the shortage of some raw materials like lithium or copper. I think it’ll make things worse in general.
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### Author:  [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/14 "2010-06-14T09:07:51Z")
How come nobody ever noticed this before? Plenty of advanced nations have ruled or at least passed through the country; why are we now learning about huge reserves of iron and copper for the first time?
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### Author:  [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/15 "2010-06-14T09:14:09Z")
Yes, where were all the whistleblowers and leaked documents that one expects whenever governments or large organisations try to keep a secret?
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### Author:  [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/16 "2010-06-14T09:23:16Z")
Why would the Bactrians try to hide the information?
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### Author:  [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/17 "2010-06-14T09:28:36Z")
The only bactrians I know of are camels, but I’ll admit, they look a secretive bunch. Don’t know why they’d be like that.
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### Author:  [@Mops](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mops)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/18 "2010-06-14T10:04:05Z")
> [@Alessan](#):
>
> How come nobody ever noticed this before? Plenty of advanced nations have ruled or at least passed through the country; why are we now learning about huge reserves of iron and copper for the first time?
I wonder about that too, particularly as “a small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists” made the survey. A case of wild extrapolation?
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### Author:  [@Superhal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superhal)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 10:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/19 "2010-06-14T10:19:48Z")
Imho, in regards to Al Qaida, yes, they will probably lose power in the region. More wealth means more schools means more education, which means less power for religion.
Does this mean the end of the threat of terrorism in the region? Likely not. If anything, it means more mercs and fewer militia.
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### Author:  [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)
#### Post date: [June 14, 2010, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-this-discovery-of-mineral-deposits-in-afghanistan-mean-the-end-of-al-quaida/543087/20 "2010-06-14T10:20:20Z")
Exactly. I mean, the Victorian British needed iron as much as we do today, and they certainly didn’t lack surveyors. How come they didn’t make this discovery?
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