# Will Trump be jailed within a year of this date? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [July 1, 2023, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391 "2023-07-01T04:23:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/21 "2023-07-01T22:14:33Z")
Convicted - yes Final appeals done - no Jailed - never, even after all appeals exhausted. Cushy house arrest at worst. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/22 "2023-07-01T22:21:02Z")
If/when Trump is ever convicted criminally, the US will establish just exactly what kind of majesty comes with ever holding the office of the President. We like to _say_ we don’t like the concept of majesty, but then again, we like to _say_ lots of things. ---
**Author:** ![Dandan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a87d85/32.png) [@Dandan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dandan)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/23 "2023-07-01T22:36:05Z")
Help me out, here. If he’s convicted of a felony, why would he breathe free air while his appeals crawl through the system? Do bank robbers stroll around waiting for the hammer to fall? Murderers? Forgive me if this has been covered somewhere, or if I have simply misapprehended a felony conviction. Dan Perhaps Bobot just beat me to it. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/24 "2023-07-01T22:46:04Z")
> [@Dandan](#): > > Help me out, here. If he’s convicted of a felony, why would he breathe free air while his appeals crawl through the system? Rarely, defendants are granted bail on appeal. _Rarely_. Here’s the relevant statute: > Federal law allows bail pending appeal for certain convictions **if the judge is clearly convinced the defendant won’t flee or harm someone and the appeal has a good chance of being successful**. (18 U.S.C. § 3143.) I can’t really see any basis for granting it for Trump. Once he’s convicted, he can conduct his appeals while serving out his sentence, like most defendants do. ---
**Author:** ![Dandan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a87d85/32.png) [@Dandan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dandan)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/25 "2023-07-01T22:49:46Z")
Thanks, Aspen - you’ve brightened my day. Dan ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/26 "2023-07-01T22:53:38Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > While there’s the possibility he spends time in prison, it won’t be within a year from now. Totally agreed, and looking at the poll results, I’ll bet most agree. While many defendants go to prison before appeals are exhausted, he would not be one of them. I think – with low confidence – that if he loses the election next year, he will eventually be jailed. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/27 "2023-07-01T22:55:20Z")
He has a good chance of delaying the final outcome that more. When the hammer does fall, I think it’ll be real prison rather than house arrest, because of the need to discourage “rescue” attempts by the Gravy Seals of Meal Team Sixpack. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/28 "2023-07-01T22:56:08Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > When the hammer does fall, I think it’ll be real prison rather than house arrest, because of the need to discourage “rescue” attempts by the Gravy Seals of Meal Team Sixpack. Hilarious. 😃 I’m still giggling!! And I agree. Problem defendants are jailed all the time. His biggest issue is his secret service detail, and he may be stripped of that. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/29 "2023-07-01T22:56:42Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > I can’t really see any basis for granting it for Trump. Once he’s convicted, he can conduct his appeals while serving out his sentence, like most defendants do. If you are the judge, sure. This is one of those unusual cases where there is a high likelihood of successful appeal. The responsible judge is supposed to consider that. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/30 "2023-07-01T22:58:01Z")
No, there really isn’t. The DOJ rarely brings cases that aren’t evidenced up to the level of “slam dunk.” I see zero chance that Jack Smith will be careless on this score. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/31 "2023-07-01T22:59:35Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > This is one of those unusual cases where there is a high likelihood of successful appeal. How so? He’s on tape admitting to every element of the crime. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/32 "2023-07-01T23:00:52Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > This is one of those unusual cases where there is a high likelihood of successful appeal. There hasn’t been a trial yet. As it stands, this is one of those cases where there is a clear chance for conviction, and a ridiculously low chance for appeal. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/33 "2023-07-01T23:02:02Z")
Once Jack Smith hands it over to the judge, especially this judge, all bets are off. It is like nailing a magician’s coffin shut-that sucker has got a false bottom. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/34 "2023-07-01T23:07:44Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > I see zero chance that Jack Smith will be careless on this score. Didn’t say he would be. I just think that in a case exciting so much political emotionalism, the fact of there being six Republicans on the Supreme Court argues in Trump’s favor. My next sentence may not be as popular as my last one, but I also think that mainstream judges will not like the look of the most prominent defendant since Jefferson Davis – a man who is the arguable front-runner for POTUS – being jailed and then freed. This would make the whole federal legal system look unfair, and institutionalists will worry about that possibility. So they will find some way to delay prison at least until after the TV networks call the election for (as I hope but have no confidence) Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/35 "2023-07-01T23:08:28Z")
As one who has been concerned about Cannon’s partisanship from the time of her wackadoodle rulings in the Special Master matter, I do agree. In this case only. But I see lots of signs that Smith may bring additional charges in the documents matter in New Jersey and maybe even D.C. This is of course before we get to the January 6th prosecutions, which look more and more like they are going to be very broad, scooping up lots of people who were enmeshed in the corrupt efforts to overturn a lawful election. It won’t be within a year of this date, but I’m confident Smith will get his man. And that his man will end up in prison if he doesn’t manage to take a dirt nap first. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/36 "2023-07-01T23:11:46Z")
I bet a friend $100 that Trump won’t see the inside of a cell…and I would _gladly_ had over that money and throw in a free dinner for two at The Portland Grill if I was wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/37 "2023-07-01T23:22:20Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I just think that in a case exciting so much political emotionalism, the fact of there being six Republicans on the Supreme Court argues in Trump’s favor. Then with all due respect, I would say you haven’t paid attention to how this SCOTUS with its 6 Republicans has been ruling with respect to Trump matters. It’s not looking good for him at all – not even for the delays in process he hoped for. They already long ago sent a clear message they are not going to be his golden ticket. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > My next sentence may not be as popular as my last one, but I also think that mainstream judges will not like the look of the most prominent defendant since Jefferson Davis – a man who is the arguable front-runner for POTUS – being jailed and then freed. This would make the whole federal legal system look unfair, and institutionalists will worry about that possibility. You keep looking at this through the lens of Trump being the likely Republican nominee. You’ve made this argument again and again, over many threads. I just don’t think it’s going to carry the weight you seem to believe it will. The election is more than a year away. Most people haven’t even tuned in to the election yet. Trump’s pool of supporters shrinks every day. His prominent Republican supporters of 2016 and 2020 are steadily peeling away, criticizing him more boldly as time goes on. The Koch network has just pledged to spend 70 million dollars to keep Trump from becoming the 2024 Republican nominee. The trickle of distaste among all but his most fervent supporters is going to become a river. Did you miss the (finally) challenging interview between Trump and Bret Baier on Fox? Even that miserable propaganda network is stripping the veneer off him. IMHO, Trump is not going to be the Republican nominee. Your entire argument rests on that he will. I think you’re wrong. Time will tell, of course. * * * > [@Czarcasm](#): > > I bet a friend $100 that Trump won’t see the inside of a cell…and I would _gladly_ had over that money and throw in a free dinner for two at The Portland Grill if I was wrong. I hope you are happily $100+ poorer and well fed in a year and some! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/38 "2023-07-01T23:33:52Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > I can’t really see any basis for granting it for Trump. A kindly judge will grant it, because Trump is a Very Important Person. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/39 "2023-07-01T23:35:05Z")
Only one is going to be that kindly. They won’t all be, though. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2023, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391/40 "2023-07-01T23:36:33Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > scooping up lots of people who were enmeshed in the corrupt efforts to overturn a lawful election. I really, REALLY hope that there are some House Republicans included in this scoop. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trump-be-jailed-within-a-year-of-this-date/986391.md?page=3)