# Will Trump's conviction affect the election **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 30, 2024, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304 "2024-05-30T23:51:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/41 "2024-05-31T15:27:17Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Would we be surprised if people handpicked by an insurrectionist decide to plot a coup? Was thinking the same thing. The VP and the Cabinet could have some ideas of their own. If, god help us, it comes to that. ---
**Author:** ![Sandwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/22d042/32.png) [@Sandwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sandwich)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/42 "2024-05-31T15:37:59Z")
On behalf of the free world, let me be absolutely blunt that Trump will never be our leader. Merkel stepped up the last time you elected the disgraced felon. Someone else will do so if you vote him in again. Stating the obvious, if he is re-elected, it is not clear if America will even remain part of the free world for all that long. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/43 "2024-05-31T15:50:02Z")
Putin is waiting for his turn. Though it will be far from a free world. Putin would love to have Trump as president again. Then Putin can disregard NATO and march through Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/44 "2024-05-31T16:11:46Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Would we be surprised if people handpicked by an insurrectionist decide to plot a coup? Yes, I actually would be. Trump won’t be judging then on their willingness to plot a coup. He’ll be judging them on their willingness to _do whatever he tells them_, whether that’s “plotting a coup”; “defrauding the voters”, or “enabling him to wallow in his own crapulence”. Anyone with enough independence of spirit to actual conceive of their own coup against Trump won’t make it through the vetting process. Trump still remembers how Pence “let him down” on Jan. 6. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/45 "2024-05-31T16:14:58Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Then Putin can disregard NATO and march through Europe. Europe will have other ideas about that, and Russia’s army has shown themselves to be less than optimal at invading other countries. Many European countries also have a decent nuke arsenal. Unless you’re positing that the US Army joins the Russian army to crush Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/46 "2024-05-31T16:52:53Z")
> [@sciurophobic](#): > > > [@Dung\_Beetle](#): > > > > the violent reaction of the magats, > > What violent reaction? All I’ve seen are whiny tweets. Other than 1/6 every prophecy of an angry mob coming to Trump’s rescue has failed to come true. I think the time the magas tried to overthrow the government counts as a violent reaction. But even if you put that aside, there have been plenty of other crimes. > **['No Blame?' ABC News finds 54 cases invoking 'Trump' in connection with...](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/blame-abc-news-finds-17-cases-invoking-trump/story?id=58912889)** > > President Donald Trump insists he deserves no blame for divisions in America. [https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/campaign-of-fear/](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/section/campaign-of-fear/) [https://indivisible.org/resource/magas-push-political-violence](https://indivisible.org/resource/magas-push-political-violence) The magas are low-intelligence thugs. They’re not going to accomplish anything by their crimes but they can and will hurt people. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/47 "2024-05-31T16:53:09Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I’m thinking that a lot of the supposed fence sitters are MAGAs that are just avoiding having to argue with friends about the subject Unfortunately, as scary as this is, I think it’s true. It happened the first time he was elected, that’s what threw the polls off. ---
**Author:** ![sciurophobic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sciurophobic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sciurophobic)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/48 "2024-05-31T16:56:37Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I think the time the magas tried to overthrow the government counts as a violent reaction. Like I said, other than 1/6 (January 6). > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > But even if you put that aside, there have been plenty of other crimes. I don’t disagree there’s been individual acts. I mean the idea that they’re all going to finally rise up and put us libruls in our place. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/49 "2024-05-31T17:10:55Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Yes, I actually would be. Trump won’t be judging then on their willingness to plot a coup. He’ll be judging them on their willingness to _do whatever he tells them_, whether that’s “plotting a coup”; “defrauding the voters”, or “enabling him to wallow in his own crapulence”. Let’s look at it backwards. If the VP and majority are willing to say anything, even things they do not believe in, to get the job then why would they not be willing to remove Trump when they think they may get 2/3 vote in both houses of Congress? ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/50 "2024-05-31T17:31:08Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > willing to say anything It’s not a matter of being willing to say anything, its a matter of having the will to decide to say something _on their own initiative_. Lots of people will lie quite easily if a person with authority over them tells them to lie. But having the spirit and the spine to lie entirely on your own behalf is something else. I predict we’ll see the most spineless, brown-nosing bootlicking cabinet in the history of the world. They will do everything Trump tells them to do, do nothing that Trump hasn’t told them to do, and never, ever, push back on him on even the slightest issue. If Trump tells them that up is down, they’ll all be trying to sit on the ceiling. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/51 "2024-05-31T18:00:33Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > > [@Czarcasm](#): > > > > I’m thinking that a lot of the supposed fence sitters are MAGAs that are just avoiding having to argue with friends about the subject > > Unfortunately, as scary as this is, I think it’s true. It happened the first time he was elected, that’s what threw the polls off. I think it’s the fear factor. Republicans have made a practice of scaring voters by playing up some supposed enemy - communists, black people, mobsters, hippies, gays, terrorists, flag burners, feminists, terrorists, environmentalists, immigrants, etc - and convincing a lot of people that there’s a huge threat out there trying to destroy them and that their only hope is to vote for Republicans who will protect them. These scared people vote for Republicans but they don’t like to talk about it because they don’t like to admit they vote out of fear. This worked in 2016 when we had a scary black man as President and a scary female person as the Democratic candidate. But in 2020 and 2024, the Democrats are running Joe Biden. And it’s hard to present Biden as a scary figure. Trump, on the other hand, looks a lot scarier. The Democrats will be able to show footage of Trump’s followers rioting in the capital. And they’ll be able to show footage of Trump saying he can kill people with impunity and he’ll be looking for revenge if he takes office again. The scared people this time will be voting for Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/52 "2024-05-31T18:30:33Z")
> [@sciurophobic](#): > > It’s the sentencing that’s going to matter more. Are enough voters going to want to elect somebody in prison? … Even before he is sentenced, and after if on house arrest/probation, it is likely that his ability to travel/campaign will be restricted. And his/his staff’s attention will be diverted by his legal issues. I don’t know how much in person campaigning really matters, but if Sleepy Joe has unfettered ability to travel to swing states and consistently hammer that his opponent is elsewhere dealing with his personal legal issues… I’d have to assume that would be of SOME advantage in a close race. It will be truly interesting to see if his sycophants remain firm, or if cracks appear in his support as the minions face their own contested campaigns and constituent criticism. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/53 "2024-05-31T18:38:27Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > It will be truly interesting to see if his sycophants remain firm, or if cracks appear in his support as the minions face their own contested campaigns and constituent criticism. Agree. I also think about those Republicans currently coming to his defense - the Democrats should hammer on them for their support of a felon for elected office - “…look at how low the cult will go. Supporting a convicted felon for the highest office in the land. C’mon, man! America is smarter and better than that!” ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/54 "2024-05-31T18:44:40Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > There probably aren’t many people out there who are going around thinking “Well, gee, I wasn’t going to vote for that Trump fellow, but now that he’s been convicted, I reckon maybe I will”. > > Most likely there are exponentially more people whose thoughts, and shift of plans, is in the opposite direction. Enough to tank him? Hard to know. Pollsters have cited a significant number of “Trump voters” who said that a conviction would make them less likely to vote for him. That’s exactly what I see posted. Lots of his supporters think this solidifies a win. “If they can do it to him they can do it to you.” > [@don\_t\_ask](#): > > I was just checking out my Betfair account and was stunned to see that Trump is favorite in their market. I would have assumed, in a sane world, that I could bet every penny I have that he won’t win the election now. Apparently not. As always betting odds are a way to ensure the bookie makes money by evening out the money. It’s not a prediction of the future. > [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Kidding aside, on July 11th Trump will be sentenced to _something_ which will likely be probation. If that’s the case then he won’t be able to leave the state without permission from the judge, which may be difficult if not impossible given that Trump’s demonstrations of remorse have been a bit, ah, strained. > > This will make it hard for Trump to travel to red states, making it hard to host kind of rallies that whip up ratings and fill his sails. It’ll all need to be done from NY, and it’s all but certain that probation will include prohibitions on attacking the judge or jurors, which could get him yanked back to jail. > > Other outcomes: > > 1. Gets probation, flees state, dares NY to come after him, runs as the first candidate to be an active fugitive felon. Judge feebly says “come back” and is ignored. This could break badly in every direction (say Trump actually gets elected while on probation - oof). > 2. Gets a jail sentence on July 11th. The cliche “do not pass go, do not collect $200” kicks in. In general the judge has nothing to do with it. It’s done through probation officers. You don’t go before a judge every time you want to travel. Also Trump is a resident of Florida. States don’t say “Well you don’t live there anymore.” He will be allowed to travel if he’s on probation. > [@Mijin](#): > > I’ve wavered on this. > > The wrongdoing in this particular case is much milder from a legal point of view than the other cases. And not even that comprehensible to the lay person (i.e. me). > > So initially I figured this is a win for MAGA; they can use this as evidence for the “trump as victim” narrative, and no one actually cares about the crime itself. I think that’s a big problem. People don’t follow things like the denizens of P&E do. Many don’t see what the big deal is and don’t really understand why there was a trial at all. The wrongdoing in other cases are much more clear cut but may not happen in time for the election. > [@sciurophobic](#): > > > [@Dung\_Beetle](#): > > > > the violent reaction of the magats, > > What violent reaction? All I’ve seen are whiny tweets. Other than 1/6 every prophecy of an angry mob coming to Trump’s rescue has failed to come true. As of right now nothing has happened to him. Get back to me in July. At this point I’m more worried about a Timothy MacVeigh than a 1/6. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/55 "2024-05-31T19:05:13Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > These scared people vote for Republicans but they don’t like to talk about it because they don’t like to admit they vote out of fear. Or admit they are racist, xenophobic, anti-patriotic, etc., by endorsing Trumpo. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/56 "2024-05-31T19:16:27Z")
I’m not sure that’s necessarily the case, but there other reasons why we’re not seeing so much in the way of craziness right now. One: As far as I can tell, MAGA people fall into three basic buckets. Those buckets are: - Educated, conservative suburbanites whose primary motivation is less taxes and less government regulation who long for a return to a past that never was, and that they didn’t experience. - White conservative retirees who have been absolutely terrified as they age by constant proclamations of doom and gloom from their chosen team, and who don’t really realize that the 24/7 news cycle amplifies how much bad stuff is actually going on. They long for a past that never was, and that they’re remembering incorrectly (there was much more violent crime in the 70s and 80s, for example). - Busted uneducated white rural people. They primarily feel left out of the modern economy due to a combination of the decline in manufacturing jobs and the rise of the need to be educated to succeed in modern society. These folks feel like they’ve been done dirty by the system, and are blaming the Democrats as a scapegoat, because they see other groups - non-white, alternate sexualities, immigrants, etc… getting special treatment/allowances/quotas, while they themselves get nothing. I feel like none of those three groups really has the makings of violence- the suburbanites are primarily law and order types, who have it good and want to keep it that way. The retirees are, well, OLD, and the rural folks live in rural areas and don’t have money to go do this kind of thing. That’s not to say that they’re not capable, but on the whole, I think it explains a lot of it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/57 "2024-05-31T19:31:47Z")
Marginal impact but presidential elections in this country are decided at the margins. MAGA vote. No change. They will turn out in any case. And the verdict will flip no one. The interesting groups are the ones who are choosing not between Trump and Biden but between one of them or not bothering to vote. Some of those considering both a vote for Trump and not bothering may be a smidge more likely to not bother. Those who may come out to vote against Biden or stay home? Unaffected. Those who are possibly staying home rather than bother voting for Biden? A backward sort of impact: no more bothering to vote _for_ Biden but a couple more may bother to vote to vote _against_ Trump. I’ll be interested in seeing polling specific to those less likely voters, such as younger voters and maybe some in the Arab community who are upset with what they perceive as Biden’s enabling of Israeli actions in Gaza, know Trump would be as much so but are considering withholding their vote in protest. Lower income Black voters too, whose increased turn out and D lean has been critical in the past. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/58 "2024-05-31T19:37:35Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > Or admit they are racist, xenophobic, anti-patriotic, etc., by endorsing Trumpo. The dog whistles and codewords are gone nowadays. People are happy to admit they are racist and xenophobic - and delude themselves into thinking that makes them patriotic. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/59 "2024-05-31T19:50:13Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The dog whistles and codewords are gone nowadays. People are happy to admit they are racist and xenophobic - and delude themselves into thinking that makes them patriotic. There are certainly those who feel that way, but those aren’t the margin (the hidden Magas) that could tip the vote. I’m sure there are plenty of Republican voters in the shadows who secretly wish for a whiter, male dominated 50’s America but won’t let their racism show in polite society. I honestly believed the polls, and that Hillary would win. Only to find out later that there were many Republicans who were afraid to admit, even to pollsters(!), that they were voting for Trump and all that he stood for. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2024, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/60 "2024-05-31T19:53:53Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > Only to find out later that there were many Republicans who were afraid to admit, even to pollsters(!), that they were voting for Trump and all that he stood for. Were there though? Polls actually were pretty much on target and based on them polling gave Trump a one in three chance of winning. It was not a shock to turn out that way. I’ve never seen any evidence of shy Trumpers. What convinced you they existed in large numbers? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304.md?page=4)