# Will Trump's conviction affect the election **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 30, 2024, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304 "2024-05-30T23:51:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/81 "2024-06-01T17:36:46Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > On July 11th, Donald Trump will receive a reasonable sentence – something that a shocking percentage of his supporters can’t really even construct Also it’s likely he will have to report for that sentence DURING the GOP convention. Not that the pathetic sycophants of the GOP will object but they do not represent the American electorate. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/82 "2024-06-01T17:41:53Z")
ISWYDT 😉 (discourse) ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/83 "2024-06-01T18:35:26Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Other outcomes: > > 1. Gets probation, flees state, dares NY to come after him, runs as the first candidate to be an active fugitive felon. Judge feebly says “come back” and is ignored. This could break badly in every direction (say Trump actually gets elected while on probation - oof). > 2. Gets a jail sentence on July 11th. The cliche “do not pass go, do not collect $200” kicks in. I would not be averse to #2, above. But in past elections, my ballot has noted the occupation of each candidate. Such as _Joe Blow - and below that “incumbent”, or “community activist.”_ I’d also like to see: Joseph R. Biden _Incumbent_ Donald J. [America-hating fuckstick] _Felon/Fugitive_ ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/84 "2024-06-01T19:27:42Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > I concur with the above. I agree that historically the high road has been the right way - but these are different times. TikTok and social media has made people lazier and more gullible. And Trump with his ready-for-violence MAGA loyal forces are a much more dangerous foe that in simpler times. I don’t have a problem with drawing attention to the facts. There is no road, high or otherwise. There are strategies to get people to vote the way you want. Most people have made up their minds. If the conviction was going to change anyone’s mind it already has. There really aren’t any voters that don’t know these candidates. The undecideds are the people who are deciding to vote or not. A lot of them hate politics and politicians. They see the system as corrupt on all sides Those people are susceptible to believing the prosecution was politically motivated. And yes a large portion of the population don’t understand why he was prosecuted for this particular incident. You might think they are stupid for that but their vote counts just as much. Biden shouldn’t ignore it. If asked about it he should just say Trump had an opportunity to present his defense but a jury convicted him. Especially given the fact that the feds declined to prosecute. No gloating commercials. They aren’t needed. I really do wish one of the other cases was tried first. Other than those who already hate Trump it’s hard to get people to care about this case. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/85 "2024-06-01T19:29:30Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > I would not be averse to #2, above. > > But in past elections, my ballot has noted the occupation of each candidate. Such as _Joe Blow - and below that “incumbent”, or “community activist.”_ > > I’d also like to see: > > Joseph R. Biden > _Incumbent_ > > Donald J. [America-hating fuckstick] > _Felon/Fugitive_ Where is this? I’ve never seen anything like that. My ballot has only ever shown the name and political party. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/86 "2024-06-01T20:48:19Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I’d love to see a Biden campaign add along these lines: Biden would never do that. The Lincoln Project OTOH… > [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > There’s a big difference between a dirty mud slinging ad and presenting potential voters with facts based on an opponent’s track and police records. Oh “Dark Brandon” will make a few snarky comments, and that doesnt mean Joe cant mention- “convicted felon” , but his ads would make that a main issue I bet > [@Loach](#): > > Most people have made up their minds. It is the Indy and youth vote. They wont vote for trump, sure, but in 2016 enough of them stayed home or voted 3rd party to let trump slip in. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/87 "2024-06-01T22:14:34Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > In general the judge has nothing to do with it. It’s done through probation officers. Actually, the judge has broad authority to set the conditions of probation (within statutory limits of course). The conditions of probation don’t just spring fully formed from the choices of probation officers. > [@](#): > > Also Trump is a resident of Florida. States don’t say “Well you don’t live there anymore.” He will be allowed to travel if he’s on probation. The judge has broad statutory authority to set conditions of probation. What’s customary vs. what’s authorized are 2 different things. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/88 "2024-06-01T22:29:26Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > There is no road, high or otherwise Of course there is. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/89 "2024-06-01T22:53:22Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > Most people have made up their minds Between which candidate they would vote for if they were to vote, yes. I’d suspect nearly all have. Not necessarily about whether they will bother to vote. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/90 "2024-06-01T23:10:03Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > We’re taking the dumbest of the dumb. We’re talking about people that are _proud_ of being dumb. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/91 "2024-06-01T23:45:21Z")
As someone pointed out, Trumpers like to use an “all roads lead to Rome” logic. If Trump is acquitted, it helps him. If Trump has a hung jury, it helps him. If Trump is convicted, it helps him. No matter what, they’re convinced it helps him. These are people who thought Trump was going to win 70% of the popular vote and carry California and New York prior to November 2020. (Yes, I’ve read them say just that) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/92 "2024-06-01T23:47:47Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If Trump is convicted, it helps him. But it clearly didnt. Indy voters have said “never trump”. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/93 "2024-06-01T23:55:13Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > As someone pointed out, Trumpers like to use an “all roads lead to Rome” logic. > > If Trump is acquitted, it helps him. > If Trump has a hung jury, it helps him. > If Trump is convicted, it helps him. It’s not just Trumpers it’s people opposed to him as well. Some of them anyway. I concluded a long time ago that I couldn’t concern myself with what MAGAts might think when it comes to making decisions about what to do. I don’t care if sentencing Trump prior to November 5th _looks_ like election interference to MAGAts because the only way I can placate them is to simply give in to their demands. But there are some anti-Trumpers who think everything plays into his hand as well. There were arguments against even going after him for civil or criminal offenses because it would galvanize his base. I do care about what they think. A lot of people are very cynical because Trump has gotten away with so much for so long. But in recent years he keeps losing and he’s losing big. Bigly judgments against him in the fraud case and two E. Jean Carroll cases. And now a criminal conviction. While I don’t know if Felon Trump will serve a single day behind bars for his conviction, I do believe it will hurt his campaign. Felon Trump is a loser. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2024, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/94 "2024-06-01T23:56:46Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > But it clearly didnt. Indy voters have said “never trump”. Sure. My point is, that’s how they _think_. You’re right that indy voters are less likely to vote for Trump after the conviction, but Trumpers are convinced everything works to a pro-Trump end. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/95 "2024-06-02T00:14:26Z")
IMHO, what the MAGAts think, and what they want _you_ to think can be different. They, some of them at least, know this verdict is a blow to Trump’s campaign. But they want you to think all these legal challenges are strengthening his chances at becoming 47. They want people to be fearful of prosecuting Dear Leader. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/96 "2024-06-02T01:40:54Z")
In most countries a candidate who gets elected on a policy platform can actually get the policy enacted, because it means they control the legislature. Biden is getting hammered because some of the thirngs he promised could not get past congress (or SCOTUS). That’s the trouble with the high road in the US. The whole government is set up to prevent action. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/97 "2024-06-02T05:55:39Z")
Such a system makes it harder to cause problems…and equally as hard to enact solutions. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/98 "2024-06-02T11:00:45Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > We’re talking about people that are _proud_ of being dumb. Obligatory SNL sketch link: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/KAG37Kw1-aw/maxresdefault.jpg "The Undecided Voters - SNL") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAG37Kw1-aw) ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/99 "2024-06-02T12:48:29Z")
The Economist has come down [firmly on the side of this helping Trump](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/30/the-disgrace-of-a-former-american-president), and that the charges should not have been brought. On the former point, they are saying [the same thing I said](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/17) in my “Initially…” paragraph. I think they are broadly right, but not fully thinking through the optics and how this plays out. On the latter, I think they are implying that the courts should take politics into account on their decisions, which seems entirely wrongheaded in my view. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2024, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/100 "2024-06-02T15:40:31Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > The Economist has come down [firmly on the side of this helping Trump](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/30/the-disgrace-of-a-former-american-president), and that the charges should not have been brought. That point has been brought up a couple of times upthread, and it remains to be seen, but I’m not seeing it. His faithful will follow him regardless but I’m having trouble visualizing someone on the fence saying, ‘I was unsure about this Trump fella but now he’s a felon I think he’ll make a great president’. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304.md?page=6)