# Will Trump's conviction affect the election **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 30, 2024, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304 "2024-05-30T23:51:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/141 "2024-06-04T16:55:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’m mocking the knee jerk reaction that so many have that, no matter the facts, every event is reported as if it’s helpful to Trump. The current 538 aggregate poll has Trump ahead so that reaction isn’t far off. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/142 "2024-06-04T16:57:55Z")
IMO that’s a pretty silly attitude. It’s very early to be worried about polling, and polling tends to lag anyway. If there’s actually an impact from the conviction we may not know for days, weeks, or even more. 6 months of calling Trump a convicted felon might well have impacts we can’t see yet. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/143 "2024-06-04T17:10:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > IMO that’s a pretty silly attitude. It’s very early to be worried about polling, and polling tends to lag anyway. If there’s actually an impact from the conviction we may not know for days, weeks, or even more. 6 months of calling Trump a convicted felon might well have impacts we can’t see yet. I can almost guarantee it won’t have much of an impact. It might have enough. I think you will find the general public cares very little about the crime that was committed. I’m glad he was convicted and _I_ care very little about the crime that was committed. His other charges are much more consequential. Everyone already knew about Stormy. They already cared or didn’t about the issue years ago. How the payoff was accounted for doesn’t stir the blood. Come July it will get interesting with regards to sentencing. I still don’t think too many people will be outraged by accounting. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/144 "2024-06-04T17:24:24Z")
I see no mention so far, in this thread, of Kennedy, Stein, or West. I think that voters have long had a strong opinion regarding Trump and Biden, those being the two most famous Americans, and probably the two most famous people in the world. So you wouldn’t expect basic opinions there to change. It is those flirting with voting third party who will decide the election. If Biden gets a bounce, it would be from third party voters moving to Biden should they find the prospect of a felon in the White House making Trump a bit more unacceptable than he was prior to last Friday. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/145 "2024-06-04T18:24:47Z")
I’m unconvinced. Trump lost in 2020 because things mattered (like his terrible COVID response) and his opponents tried hard to beat him. Maybe it will turn out that being the first president convicted of a crime doesn’t matter, but I won’t believe it just because an internet stranger proclaims it is so. I continue to be baffled by the way so many people on the internet are convinced they can offer anything better than a wild guess when it comes to predicting political events and impacts. Your predictions, like mine and anyone else here, are no more than guesses. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/146 "2024-06-04T18:43:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’m unconvinced. Trump lost in 2020 because things mattered (like his terrible COVID response) and his opponents tried hard to beat him. > > Maybe it will turn out that being the first president convicted of a crime doesn’t matter, but I won’t believe it just because an internet stranger proclaims it is so. I continue to be baffled by the way so many people on the internet are convinced they can offer anything better than a wild guess when it comes to predicting political events and impacts. Your predictions, like mine and anyone else here, are no more than guesses. Were you comfortable with the win? Are you comfortable with the chances now? Yes since 2020 Trump has been convicted. We have also had four years of Biden and some voters aren’t happy about him. What do you think has more weight, the perception you are worse off or that Trump tried to hide his affair? I would feel better about the effect of a conviction if it was about overturning the election in Georgia or pictures of stacks of classified documents next to gold plated toilets. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/147 "2024-06-04T19:00:42Z")
No, I’m not particularly comfortable - how could I be in a country in which Trump gets even ten percent support? But that doesn’t mean I’m going to except every pessimistic feelings-based prediction from strangers on the internet. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/148 "2024-06-04T19:28:46Z")
FWIW I am banking on Biden going into the home stretch as the underdog. While that is anxiety provoking it is precisely that anxiety that will get less likely Biden voters off their behinds and to the polls. Anxiety is good. It motivates. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2024, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/149 "2024-06-04T23:18:03Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > We have also had four years of Biden and some voters aren’t happy about him. What do you think has more weight, the perception you are worse off or that Trump tried to hide his affair? I’m shooting from the hip here, but isn’t that standard pre-election trope? The losing side of the previous election always asks that question, as if it’s a given you are not. I’m not crazy about Biden but I’d literally vote for anyone but Trump and I’m pretty sure every other Dem that’s not happy with Biden feels that same way. Speaking of, I’m not so sure Biden would speak that well at a debate either. He’s not getting any younger and it’s showing. I am 100% confident of his ability behind the helm, but he’s starting to look a little weak. So maybe good that Trump bows out. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > … but I won’t believe it just because an internet stranger proclaims it is so. Stranger!? Why, I’m your warm, fuzzy internet buddy. 😂 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2024, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/150 "2024-06-06T01:48:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’ll be interested in seeing polling specific to those less likely voters Early signs. > **[Small Shift Toward Biden After Trump Verdict (Published 2024)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/05/upshot/polling-trump-conviction-voters.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xk0.w_iY.JpevD0P4YnnX&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare)** > > We reached nearly 2,000 people who participated in previous Times/Siena polls to see if any had changed their minds. > [@](#): > > The shift was especially pronounced among the young, nonwhite and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters who have propelled Mr. Trump to a lead in the early polls. Of the people who previously told us they had voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but would vote for Mr. Trump in 2024, around one-quarter now said they would instead stick with Mr. Biden. > > Voters who dislike both candidates — who have been dubbed double haters — were especially likely to defect from Mr. Trump. Overall, Mr. Trump lost more than one-fifth of the double haters who once backed him. That group of defectors was about evenly split between moving to Mr. Biden and saying they were now undecided. > > Politically disengaged voters, an area of growth for Mr. Trump in [recent polls](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/upshot/trump-biden-polls-voters.html), are especially likely to shift from Mr. Trump to Mr. Biden. Not exactly the information I am most interested in, whether this would be enough for a Biden leaning voter who was going to not bother to bother after all, but a hint. Again with so much of the electorate pretty firm, the margins and deciding to vote at all, both of which are likely to be a bit fluid, matter most. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2024, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/151 "2024-06-06T19:42:41Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > > [@Loach](#): > > > > We have also had four years of Biden and some voters aren’t happy about him. What do you think has more weight, the perception you are worse off or that Trump tried to hide his affair? > > I’m shooting from the hip here, but isn’t that standard pre-election trope? The losing side of the previous election always asks that question, as if it’s a given you are not. I’m not crazy about Biden but I’d literally vote for anyone but Trump and I’m pretty sure every other Dem that’s not happy with Biden feels that same way. > > Speaking of, I’m not so sure Biden would speak that well at a debate either. He’s not getting any younger and it’s showing. I am 100% confident of his ability behind the helm, but he’s starting to look a little weak. So maybe good that Trump bows out. There are things about Biden I don’t like. There are things I’m a hell of a lot more conservative about than most on this board. I would never vote for Trump. But I’m not the one we need worry about. It’s the so-called undecideds in swing states. I think the number of people who actually haven’t decided between the two is approaching zero. It’s more about those fed up with all politicians who can’t decide if they want to vote at all. And no I’m not confident in Biden during a debate. I’ve been arguing that those who don’t think his decline is an issue are whistling in the dark. He’s never been great as a public speaker or a debater. That has certainly gotten worse over the years. As I said before, I don’t understand the purpose of a June debate. It’s too soon and other things should happen first. Like the convention. And the sentencing. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2024, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/152 "2024-06-06T23:19:15Z")
Just watched **[Paul Begala](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Begala)** on CNN. Begala’s got some hash marks in this game. His basic take on the optimum Biden message is (paraphrase): > Donald Trump is all about helping _himself_. I’m all about helping _you._ By implication, Begala feels like hammering on the “convicted felon” aspect is _not_ the best strategy. I still tend to agree. The chimerical gettable voters are the only ones that really matter. And whatever percent of that cohort is susceptible to the “Biden’s crooked DOJ” argument will only have that argument reinforced by the “convicted felon” pitch. To the extent they can be convinced that JB actually wants to, and has a plan to, make their lives _better_ (while Trump is first, last, and always for Trump), my gut says that’s the right path. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2024, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/153 "2024-06-06T23:41:40Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > By implication, Begala feels like hammering on the “convicted felon” aspect is _not_ the best strategy. Hammering - no. An occasional mention- sure. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2024, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/154 "2024-06-07T15:02:18Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > Just watched **[Paul Begala](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Begala)** on CNN. Begala’s got some hash marks in this game. > > His basic take on the optimum Biden message is (paraphrase): > > > Donald Trump is all about helping _himself_. I’m all about helping _you._ This makes sense for Biden’s messaging. It is good because it’s obviously true. Trump’s entire platform going into the election is all about a personal revenge tour. What do voters want to see in the next 4 years? A president who is trying to solve THIER problems or a president who is doing nothing but conducting revenge attacks on his personal enemies, and ignoring the country? ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2024, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/155 "2024-06-07T15:05:50Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > [38% of Republicans identify as Maga](https://www.vanderbilt.edu/unity/2023/04/07/first-ever-vanderbilt-unity-poll-reveals-52-of-maga-republicans-believe-vladimir-putin-is-a-better-president-than-joe-biden/) so I’m confident the overlap between that 30% and the 38% is so close to complete that it wont make the slightest difference to the outcome (I’m sure the remaining 8% is percentage that recognizes there is not way can get more than 100% likely to vote for Trump, which is a surprisingly high knowledge of basic maths for MAGAts) Fun fact: 8% is 27% of 30%, which is the same as the crazification factor that was calculated in the Obama v. Keyes Senate contest in 2004. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2024, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/156 "2024-06-07T16:15:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not exactly the information I am most interested in, whether this would be enough for a Biden leaning voter who was going to not bother to bother after all, but a hint. I’m not sure that voter segment exists (in electorally significant numbers). Anyone with remotely positive feelings towards Biden will vote for him. IMO The swing voters are the ones described in this poll who have negative opinions of both candidates but dislike Biden a bit less and then do seem to be swung by the felony conviction ---
**Author:** ![sciurophobic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sciurophobic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sciurophobic)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/157 "2024-06-07T18:10:23Z")
For Trump voters who might change their mind but haven’t yet, as well as undecided voters, how serious will the sentence need to be for a majority to switch to Biden? Actual prison time and if so how much? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2024, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/158 "2024-06-07T18:20:04Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Anyone with remotely positive feelings towards Biden will vote for him. IMO The swing voters are the ones described in this poll who have negative opinions of both candidates but dislike Biden a bit less and then do seem to be swung by the felony conviction The group I am interested in most does not have to have any even remote positive feelings to Biden and certainly includes the so-called “double haters.” It just means that their dislike/fear of Trump becomes enough to overcome their relatively only distaste of Biden and gets them out to vote against Trump winning. Again my point is that IMHO the meaningful group are not voters potentially swinging between candidates (I think those are very few); it’s the group swinging between seeing enough of a positive difference between Biden second term and Trump again to vote or not. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2024, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/159 "2024-06-07T18:31:05Z")
Everyone just needs to remember (and remind everyone else at every opportunity) that not only is it a sin to vote for a Republican, it’s a sin to consent, through inaction or otherwise, to any Republican being in charge of running our country. Third-party “protest” votes in down-ballot races do not qualify for absolution. ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2024, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304/160 "2024-06-07T21:08:06Z")
Theres yellings and exclamation points on X saying Mistrial as they’ve found some juror posted about how they were planning on taking trump down; I don’t know what it said exactly, but that was the gist of it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-conviction-affect-the-election/1002304.md?page=9)