# Will Trump's War be N. Korea **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 17, 2017, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408 "2017-03-17T14:44:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2017, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/242 "2017-08-13T18:11:00Z")
> [@etasyde](#): > > I doubt it’s so clear cut. China’s between a rock and a hard place. They _despise_ that treaty, but they can’t just walk out on it or _all_ of their mutual defense and military related treaties are thrown into chaos. > > From what I understand, the calculus actually works out to favor maneuvering for a limited war with the United States. It sounds strange given the modern proclivity for total war, but we managed for hundreds of years to fight wars by negotiated rules (where and when to fight, even what weapons to use in some cases), so it’s entirely possible that belligerents like the United States and China could agree to settle their differences without debellatio, annexation, or regime change in either party as an objective. Does China have a lot of treaties with other allies? I know they have trade partners but I didn’t realize they had a stable of military allies. Anyway, I don’t see why abrogating a treaty due to grossly irresponsible behavior by NK would mean that _all_ of their mutual defense treaties are thrown into chaos. ---
**Author:** ![Olfatbut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a183cd/32.png) [@Olfatbut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Olfatbut)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2017, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/243 "2017-08-14T04:05:42Z")
Seems I missed most of the fun here (NK is so two days ago) but NK is no existential threat. Even if they did have a nuke that could reach SF, LA, or Miami they wouldn’t be the first hostile country to have that tech. They know that bombing the US would result in a swift and epic flattening. As others have said, it’s an attention game played with empty threats and our awesome leader has given them an equal seat at the twitter table. I love the Jon Stewart line “Congrats on your nuclear scientists finally getting this, btw our guy rode to work on a horse!” (paraphrasing, referring to RJOppenheimer) ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/244 "2017-08-15T13:46:34Z")
US expansion of the military facilities on Guam does present a viable threat to China and North Korea. Kim Jong Un’s goal is to gain a seat at the table of international politics. The NK military’s strategy of launching ICBMs into international waters around Guam may accomplish that goal. The act is highly provocative but harmless. It is akin to the military exercises that the US and SK conduct adjacent to NK territory. The US will not attack NK because missiles are splashed into the ocean. Trump will further demonstrate that he is an empty suit while Kim Jong In gains a voice in Pacific politics. Crane ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/245 "2017-08-15T13:56:32Z")
[QUOTE=Crane] US expansion of the military facilities on Guam does present a viable threat to China and North Korea. [/QUOTE] Clearly, the addition of some Marines changes the entire equation and dynamic of the Pacific. 😛 Seriously, they were talking about adding a Marine base and a few thousand Marines to the island…I don’t think either China or North Korea is going to be overly worried about that. > [@](#): > > Kim Jong Un’s goal is to gain a seat at the table of international politics. The NK military’s strategy of launching ICBMs into international waters around Guam may accomplish that goal. The act is highly provocative but harmless. It is akin to the military exercises that the US and SK conduct adjacent to NK territory. It would rightfully be seen as an attack. The waters around Guam aren’t international waters. KJU isn’t going to get a ‘seat at the table of international politics’ through this or anything else he does. It’s not harmless. Your use of the term ‘It is’ seems to be the only thing close to correct in this paragraph, but then you go off the rails with ‘akin to the military exercises that the US and SK conduct adjacent to NK territory’, which is just laughable. > [@](#): > > The US will not attack NK because missiles are splashed into the ocean. Trump will further demonstrate that he is an empty suit while Kim Jong In gains a voice in Pacific politics. 😛 You certainly have an interesting, in the Chinese sense of the word, viewpoint on this stuff. Keep on keeping on, man. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/246 "2017-08-15T14:46:06Z")
Well, good XT, you may be correct. However, Guam is the point of the spear for the US in the Pacific. Guam gained major strategic importance due to our loss of bases in Okinawa. It’s not just a ‘few thousand Marines’. It’s B1s, B2s, B52s, Global Hawks and Nuclear submarines. If Kim Jong Un can precipitate an international crisis over Guam, China will step in as the mediator. The result may be that NKs nuclear capability is reduced in proportion to the US reducing it’s military investment in Guam. In that case Kim Jong In will be the lead guy, not Trump. Crane ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/247 "2017-08-15T14:51:23Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Well, good XT, you may be correct. > > However, Guam is the point of the spear for the US in the Pacific. Guam gained major strategic importance due to our loss of bases in Okinawa. It’s not just a ‘few thousand Marines’. It’s B1s, B2s, B52s, Global Hawks and Nuclear submarines. > > If Kim Jong In can precipitate an international crisis over Guam, China will step in as the mediator. The result may be that NKs nuclear capability is reduced in proportion to the US reducing it’s military investment in Guam. In that case Kim Jong In will be the lead guy, not Trump. > > Crane The Naval and Air Force bases have been there for decades. The only new thing is the proposed addition of a Marine contingent on the island…everything else is pretty much what it’s always been wrt infrastructure. Sometimes we deploy more units there, sometimes less depending on the climate in the region. I’m guessing we have more there now due to this dust up, but fundamentally it’s not a big change, nor will it unbalance the equation in the region, which is what you were saying. KJU couldn’t lead a boy-scout troop to a Denny’s. He’s not going to lead or even participate in regional politics. That’s even if he stops being a crazy asshole at some point and decides to allow North Korea to join (not rejoin) the community of nations. It’s pretty sad when your country makes the Chinese look sane and rational. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/248 "2017-08-15T17:41:48Z")
Actually the US has put 10 billion dollars into expansion of the Guam facilities in the last ten years. The addition of the Global Hawk base is significant to NK and China. Comparing Trump to KJU, I’d say KJU is the one with a consistent strategy and reasonably stable position. Currently Trump does not have the backing of the US Congress or the US citizenry. KJU is managing his confrontation with the US very well. Trump is likely to lose. KJU has the initiative. Crane ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/249 "2017-08-15T18:15:27Z")
[QUOTE=Crane] Actually the US has put 10 billion dollars into expansion of the Guam facilities in the last ten years. The addition of the Global Hawk base is significant to NK and China. [/QUOTE] To add a contingent of 5000 Marines…yes, I know. They also updated some of their facilities. They didn’t unbalance the region, however. You have any idea what China has spent on building its artificial ‘islands’? Probably not, as they haven’t disclosed it. It’s a lot more than $10 billion, however. > [@](#): > > Comparing Trump to KJU, I’d say KJU is the one with a consistent strategy and reasonably stable position. Currently Trump does not have the backing of the US Congress or the US citizenry. KJU is managing his confrontation with the US very well. Trump is likely to lose. KJU has the initiative. Trump is an idiot. But what you think KJU is can best be described as fantasy. He’s neither in a reasonably stable position nor is his strategy consistent, except consistently stupid. He has one faction in China supporting him, but it’s a faction that is currently being targeted by Xi and HIS faction for ‘corruption’…and Xi et al is no friends of theirs, especially with NK and KJU’s recent antics. And depending on how the party congress goes in November it could a very bad thing for NK and lil’ Kimmy 3.0. I seriously doubt Xi will be the one purged in the end. KJU is not managing his made up a confrontation with the US in any way, shape or form. Hell, even freaking RUSSIA signed off on sanctions, and that is staggering. KJU is an idiot of practically epic proportions and has painted himself and his country increasingly into a corner…and he’s done so with a guy who, while the president of the most powerful nation on earth is ALSO an idiot of epic proportions. Like I said, you have to really be on a fucked up merry go round when China looks like the voice of reason and sanity. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2017, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/250 "2017-08-15T19:46:56Z")
Poor Donald, his troubles haven’t even begun. KJU will tweek him at will while the others wait in line for their turn. I assume both sides will use this years war simulation to create opportunities for confrontation. Crane [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408.md?page=12)