# Will Trump's War be N. Korea **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 17, 2017, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408 "2017-03-17T14:44:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/141 "2017-04-17T17:23:36Z")
This one makes my stomach hurt. I’m not sure if NK’s leaders are constitutionally capable of backing down – if they feel like their back is against the wall, they may lash out, and tens or hundreds of thousands of South Koreans and Japanese might be killed. The fact that NK would be obliterated by the response (whether nuclear or not) isn’t any consolation. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/142 "2017-04-17T17:32:57Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The possibility never even entered your mind that maybe he’s not quite the mindless racist his opponents have made him out to be, did it? Why on earth would it? So the Orange Baboon is going to pick a fight with a country because-- what exactly? They have a small number of nukes and unreliable means of delivery? The cease fire has gone on for more than half a century. Don’t rock the boat. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/143 "2017-04-17T17:35:58Z")
I have to believe that the leadership in NK knows that they have no allies and that they do not stand the slightest chance of surviving, let alone winning, any conflict they start. That is what will ultimately lead them to back down to peacefully negotiate their way out of increasing isolation. I just hope the Trump administration leaves that door open to them. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/144 "2017-04-17T19:07:36Z")
BTW, the [Navy Times](https://www.navytimes.com/articles/carrier-nimitz-to-deploy-this-summer-ike-keeps-its-skills-sharp) says: > [@](#): > > The West Coast’s carrier Nimitz is wrapping up its final preparations for a summer deployment, Navy officials say … It sounds like at least the claim about 3 carriers in the Sea of Japan “next week” is probably wrong. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/145 "2017-04-17T19:15:08Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Why on earth would it? > So the Orange Baboon is going to pick a fight with a country because-- what exactly? They have a small number of nukes and unreliable means of delivery? The cease fire has gone on for more than half a century. Don’t rock the boat. I’d say it’s because they keep testing the things and keep firing off test missiles either over South Korea or at Japan. They are already deliberately rocking to boat and have been rocking it more and more for years now…since Clinton’s presidency at least. Not saying that we should attack North Korea, but your strawmen here are kind of a ridiculous boil down of the actual issues. In addition, it seems to me that a lot of what the US is doing, even under the ‘Orange Baboon’ has been political theater designed to put increasing pressure on the North Korean government. While I’m no fan of Trump (far from it), it again STM that what he’s done so far wrt China and getting them to put even more pressure on them, as the military moves have the potential to break the constant upward cycle of this situation…which, far from some sort of static status quo you are implying has been a mounting threat becoming more and more dangerous, and certainly not something we should just leave alone for another 50 years in the hope it will just work itself out. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/146 "2017-04-17T20:33:02Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This one makes my stomach hurt. I’m not sure if NK’s leaders are constitutionally capable of backing down – if they feel like their back is against the wall, they may lash out, and tens or hundreds of thousands of South Koreans and Japanese might be killed. The fact that NK would be obliterated by the response (whether nuclear or not) isn’t any consolation. Trump doesn’t care two cents about the probable deaths of hundreds of thousands of South Koreans and Japanese–in fact, he’s likely looking forward to the massive profits to be made by “rebuilding” whatever NK manages to destroy. The “why” of the likely attack on North Korea is obvious from the infamous “Mar-a-Lago ‘Situation Room’” photo taken during the April 7th missiles-on-Syria adventure: > [@](#): > > President Donald Trump tracked the first major military operation of his presidency from a makeshift Situation Room on the grounds of his lavish Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, surrounded by grim-faced aides fresh from dinner in the club’s dining room. … > **[What this photo of Trump’s war room tells us | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/07/politics/white-house-photo-syria-briefing/)** > > The photo, showing Trump and top advisors at national security briefing, parallels Situation Room photo from Obama era Prominently present: The Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of the Treasury. (And of course, Jared.) Prominently absent: the Defense Secretary and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The hot war will be wildly, profusely, orgasmically PROFITABLE. Commerce and Treasury are the _most important parts_ of the planning of that war and its opportunities for wealth-creation. Dead South Korean and Japanese people: not so much, importance-wise. > [@QuickSilver](#): > > I have to believe that the leadership in NK knows that they have no allies and that they do not stand the slightest chance of surviving, let alone winning, any conflict they start. That is what will ultimately lead them to back down to peacefully negotiate their way out of increasing isolation. > > I just hope the Trump administration leaves that door open to them. There’s no profit in that. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/147 "2017-04-17T21:41:45Z")
Does your fevered mind imagine some profit motive in the Syria strikes too? If so, could you explain it to the rest of us? ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/148 "2017-04-17T22:39:47Z")
It’s TDS IMO to evaluate the NK situation simply in terms of Trump, as if something he’s creating. The past three admins have had in common not preventing the gradual emergence of an NK capability to strike the US with nuclear weapons. And this is what fairly soon will make the situation very different, which arguably implies a need for US policy to change. And the idea that an NK ICBM capability in the hands of Kim Jung Il would have been fine it’s just his son’s prospective handling of it that’s worrisome… that seems ridiculous to me. Or a short memory of how weird and quirky to our eyes the NK regime was. The big difference is the cumulative progress of the weapons programs. Yes Trump is the person now in charge of deciding how to handle this end game of NK getting closer to a nuclear ICBM capability. And it’s reasonable to argue other people could do better. But a policy of the US just cooling it, which is what ultimately prevailed under Clinton, Bush and Obama, is running out of runway. To continue that policy one must make an argument for just living with an NK ICBM. Otherwise the policy is some variation on the apparent current one of trying more actively to get China to exert pressure (and hoping/assuming their own motivation to do so increases in this end game phase from what it has been), and considering some form of military action as last resort. Again I don’t see how bashing Trump, as much fun (or as much as a compulsive tick) as it is for some people, is very relevant. On China and Russia, the former has a lot deeper ties with NK on a whole bunch of levels. A quick change of de facto sponsors is not realistically on the menu of options for Kim. The problem is whether the Chinese position could really change enough to make NK stop developing the capability to hit the US with nukes. That’s a lot more of a challenge than rejecting some coal imports. Also the assumption that all the NK regime wants is a credible security gtee of NK the country against ‘US aggression’ makes the strong and questionable assumption the NK regime believes its own propaganda. But its own actions show its rationally worried about the real threat, internal opposition. And that threat isn’t addressed by reduced tensions. They might even arguably rationally conclude it’s the opposite. The problem with the NK regime outlook IOW isn’t necessarily complete lack of rationality. It’s possible obliviousness to the potential transition from nuclear/long range BM programs being a means to keep up tensions that protect the regime, to being something the US feels it has to respond to militarily. Brinksmanship without knowing where the brink is. Or again alternatively the debate could shift to why the US should just accept NK nuclear ICBM’s (missile defense, deterrence with more numerous US nukes etc). Even so that wouldn’t explain why the US shouldn’t do anything to try to pressure China into pressuring NK into a real policy change. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/149 "2017-04-17T22:46:27Z")
ISTM that many of the US allies seem uninterested in developing their military capabilities (or allowing what they have to decay / atrophy) while many of our enemies are keen to acquire more advanced weapons and expand the firepower available to their military. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/150 "2017-04-17T22:50:01Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Does your fevered mind imagine some profit motive in the Syria strikes too? If so, could you explain it to the rest of us? Interesting technique: make up something I didn’t say, and then in your most sarcastic manner, challenge me to defend the thing I didn’t say. Seems more like a BBQ Pit tactic, really. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/151 "2017-04-17T23:02:30Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Interesting technique: make up something I didn’t say, and then in your most sarcastic manner, challenge me to defend the thing I didn’t say. > > Seems more like a BBQ Pit tactic, really. I didn’t “make up something [you] didn’t say”. I didn’t claim you said anything at all. I asked you a question (admittedly in a sarcastic manner). Does this post mean you won’t be answering my question? ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/152 "2017-04-17T23:10:36Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > It’s TDS IMO to evaluate the NK situation simply in terms of Trump, as if something he’s creating. …But a policy of the US just cooling it, which is what ultimately prevailed under Clinton, Bush and Obama, is running out of runway. … Again I don’t see how bashing Trump, as much fun (or as much as a compulsive tick) as it is for some people, is very relevant. The point is not to bash Trump, but to point out that chest-thumping is unlikely to result in a satisfactory outcome. And chest-thumping–potentially leading to actual military aggression–is what Trump is offering. Were the T Administration to become aware that some other way is _strongly_ favored by the majority of voters, they might be dissuaded from pursuing all that lovely defense-contractor loot. So that is the reason for pointing out the T Administration’s mixed motives (ie, loot being as important to them as national security, or even more so). As for ‘another way’: the economic sanctions imposed on North Korea, so far, have not risen to the level visited on Iran. There’s a reason for that: China doesn’t want it. For one thing, China’s own economy would be negatively affected (not only by lost trade but by an almost certain increase in the number of NK refugees slipping across the border). But there might be a way to reconcile China to a level of sanctions that might dislodge the NK leadership’s determination to pursue their nuclear program. I’m not pretending to have the answer (it might involve concessions to China in other areas of our mutual economic interdependence in order to compensate them from the losses they’d experience if the NK sanctions are tightened, for instance). But to say that lobbing missiles at NK _OR_ ignoring NK’s nuclear ambitions are the only options currently available to the USA, is simply untrue. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/153 "2017-04-17T23:12:35Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I didn’t “make up something [you] didn’t say”. I didn’t claim you said anything at all. I asked you a question (admittedly in a sarcastic manner). Does this post mean you won’t be answering my question? Again, you are asking me to defend a position I haven’t espoused. How does that make sense? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2017, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/154 "2017-04-17T23:20:32Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Again, you are asking me to defend a position I haven’t espoused. How does that make sense? I’m not asking you to defend any position. I’m inquiring as to whether or not you think Trump’s Syria strike was motivated by a desire / plan to acquire more “loot” or not. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/155 "2017-04-18T01:16:59Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > But there might be a way to reconcile China to a level of sanctions that might dislodge the NK leadership’s determination to pursue their nuclear program. I’m not pretending to have the answer (it might involve concessions to China in other areas of our mutual economic interdependence in order to compensate them from the losses they’d experience if the NK sanctions are tightened, for instance). But to say that lobbing missiles at NK _OR_ ignoring NK’s nuclear ambitions are the only options currently available to the USA, is simply untrue. But one of the ways to reconcile China to that might be to convince them the US will eventually take military action if they don’t. And I don’t see how that line of reasoning would be rejected if we made believe for a moment it wasn’t the hated Trump in charge. The last three admins failed to do anything much about this problem but it’s mainly a moot point for their defenders and critics to argue about that now. If the current admin was Clinton II, it would also have to somehow deal with the changed situation of an NK noticeably closer to reaching actual nuclear BM capability against the US. And just saying ‘well China has to help’, how many times has that been said over the years? You could reasonably non-TDS-ly criticize Trump for lobbing missiles at NK if he had, but he hasn’t. Otherwise, just trying to leave out Trump for a second, you’d have to establish why the idea of making China think we might now actually do something militarily about this couldn’t possibly be one of the answers you are admirably not pretending to know. Neither do I, but I wouldn’t rule out presenting a stance of unpredictability as possibly being advantageous in a situation like this. And who says there’s any deal with China for them to seriously try and stop NK perfecting their ICBM capability if China thinks we’ll ultimately just live with said ICBM threat? Who says either that we don’t _still_ have to compensate them in other spheres after getting them to move with a credible threat of upsetting the local apple cart if they don’t. Also the stuff about policy to NK driven by ‘defense contractor loot’ comes across kinda tinfoil hat just IMHO, not a good point to emphasize while trying to argue you don’t let domestic politics distort your view of the actual situation. Does the great majority want to live with an NK ICBM force aimed at the US? Maybe, but let’s get that out in the open and not hide behind smokescreens like pretending the crisis arises from corrupt monetary motives. This crisis would be coming to a head sometime around now or next few years based on NK technical progress and lack of any any real previous policy success, no matter who was president. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/156 "2017-04-18T11:38:41Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I thought his “Muslim ban” was supposed to be a signal that he didn’t give a flying f\*\*\* about Syrian babies 😕 If he cared about them, he’d let them in as refugees. But his brand of “Christianity” precludes giving aid to Muslims of any age. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Does your fevered mind imagine some profit motive in the Syria strikes too? If so, could you explain it to the rest of us? [Pretty easily, actually.](http://bipartisanreport.com/2017/04/07/trump-caught-profiting-from-missiles-used-in-syria-stock-price-skyrockets/) > [@](#): > > Essentially, Trump’s attack did nothing but earn him a pretty penny. He spent taxpayer money on missiles to fire in Syria, risking lives in the process, to earn the company he owns a stock in a profit. > > According to Business Insider, Trump owns stock in Raytheon Inc., the company that manufactures the Tomahawk cruise missiles. > > As the Palmer Report notes, Trump just earned Raytheon Inc. close to a hundred million dollars in profits — a company he owns stock in — by choosing to use their missiles in the attack on Syria. To make matters worse, Raytheon Inc.’s shares grew today, proving that Trump did indeed profit from the bombing. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/157 "2017-04-18T14:10:31Z")
It seems highly unlikely that the U.S. military chooses their munitions based on Trump’s investment holdings rather than what’s best suited for the objectives. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/158 "2017-04-18T14:21:39Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > It seems highly unlikely that the U.S. military chooses their munitions based on Trump’s investment holdings rather than what’s best suited for the objectives. But it’s quite likely that the Freeloader In Chief knows that the more missiles fly, the more he will profit from them. Here’s a guy who has billed the taxpayers for $35K in golf cart rentals since entering office (since they’re on his courses, guess who pockets the money?" ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/159 "2017-04-18T14:28:01Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > It seems highly unlikely that the U.S. military chooses their munitions based on Trump’s investment holdings rather than what’s best suited for the objectives. Agreed. Regarding North Korea, it seems like a high amount of the missiles they launch either blow up in their own airspace or crash into the sea of Japan. Kim Jong-Un seems like a truly deranged leader, but if he’s crazy enough to fire a WMD at say Japan or the De-miltrazied zone, he might end up taking out part of his own nation when his missile fails to come close to the target. Missile defense is actually far better than what the media reports. Israel has an " IRON DOME " defense to shoot missiles out of the sky and they have next to no warning. Let’s hope Jong-Up keeps quiet and isolated. We do not need another war, but if he dares to fire a nuclear missile, there MUST be a swift response to take him out. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408/160 "2017-04-18T14:44:54Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > It seems highly unlikely that the U.S. military chooses their munitions based on Trump’s investment holdings rather than what’s best suited for the objectives. Very unlikely. Breathlessly pointing to the fact that Trump has Raytheon stock is pretty meaningless as well…he’s probably got a diverse portfolio of stocks including many of the fortune 500 companies. If Trump had sent in fighters or bombers or dropped explosives taped to rubber ducks and chucked them out of a C-130 by nuns instead we’d probably be hearing about how he risked American lives to profit since he’s almost certainly got stock in Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, as mentioned Raytheon, General Electric and so on. Anyhow, I thought I’d link to one of the channels I follow on [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7N3qHSG6F2s) that is in South Korea and asked people there what they think of all of this. The TLDW version is that South Koreans basically think this is just business as usual…that nothing is going to happen, they have seen it all before and everyone should just chill out. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-trumps-war-be-n-korea/782408.md?page=9)