# Will Tunisian revolution inspire actions in other nations? (Now following Egypt.) \[ed. title\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 15, 2011, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703 "2011-01-15T09:24:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/1 "2011-01-15T09:24:48Z")
Is this likely happen in Egypt or Saudi? Would those governments let it happen? Where else are people most likely to be inspired to similar actions? [[QUOTE=globalpost.com](http://QUOTE=globalpost.com)] CAIRO, Egypt — Less than an hour after the news broke that President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali had fled Tunisia, the political reverberations of his departure were already being felt over 1,000 miles away in Egypt’s capital. Outside the Tunisian embassy in Cairo on Friday night, a thick line of baton-wielding riot police and plainclothes security watched anxiously as dozens of Egyptian opposition members chanted slogans critical of the government led by President Hosni Mubarak since 1981. “Oh Ben Ali, tell Mr. Mubarak we have the airplane waiting for him to leave too!” Egyptian protesters screamed from behind the security cordon. [cont.](http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/egypt/110114/tunisia-will-revolt-spread-north-africa) [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2011, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/2 "2011-01-17T05:30:00Z")
[Here’s some analysis from the L.A. Times on that](http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-tunisia-arab-world-20110116,0,6836461.story): > [@](#): > > Despite widespread public disillusionment and the excitement over what has unfolded, the Arab world is not Eastern Europe of 1989, when protesters stormed boulevards and communist governments tumbled. > > The region is consumed with Iraq, Islamic extremism, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the influence of Iran. These issues have tended to overshadow poverty and human rights abuses, making the chances smaller for the kind of grass-roots Velvet Revolution that overthrew the government in what was then Czechoslovakia… > > There was a magical quality to Tunisia’s uprising, which transcended religious and political divides and united a population — young and old, educated and not — resentful of years of unemployment, hopelessness and oppression. A similar sense of wonder filled the Middle East during months of violent street protests in 2009 against the reelection of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. > > But singular, galvanizing events in those countries provided the spirit of revolt that has been absent in Egypt and other nations. In Tunisia, street rallies broke out in December after Mohammad Bouazizi, a distraught university graduate, set himself on fire after police closed his fruit stand. In Iran, a video of the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, who was shot near clashes between government militias and demonstrators in Tehran, energized demonstrators there… So the authors seem to think not. FWIW ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/3 "2011-01-18T01:36:37Z")
I never heard a thing about the Tunisian protests until today, and there has been precious little about it on TV news. I would like to believe that it would lead to an awakening of freedom and democracy in the Middle East, but given the way Islamic militants have of seizing power whenever a power vacuum occurs, I have to wonder if the result might be dangerous to US interests, and in fact to freedom and democracy in general. ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/4 "2011-01-18T01:53:59Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > I never heard a thing about the Tunisian protests until today, and there has been precious little about it on TV news. I would like to believe that it would lead to an awakening of freedom and democracy in the Middle East, but given the way Islamic militants have of seizing power whenever a power vacuum occurs, I have to wonder if the result might be dangerous to US interests, and in fact to freedom and democracy in general. Spoken like a true American patriot and a frequent newscast observer :rolleyes: I think it’s a matter of time until a storyline emerges where a popular uprising is being hijacked by A.Q. affiliated fraction maladjusted to world affairs and attempts to take over whereupon an action is triggered and friendly to Western interests ruler is installed. My memory is hazy from an article in New Yorker but there was a party with Islamic attributes (I guess because that is a religion practiced there but I may be wrong) and its leader is currently in exile in UK (just in case, eh?). According to someone I heard today on Democracy Now radio if the election is held today that party would win. All indicators point to another showdown and, of course, an increased threat even though all the elements for assisted transition using center type of party are in place. At this point, it appears World needs another hotbed. ---
**Author:** ![Walther\_Ego](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8dc957/32.png) [@Walther\_Ego](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walther_Ego)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/5 "2011-01-18T10:47:34Z")
The feeling in the neighbours of Iraq is that overthrowing a dictator leads to chaos, limitless bloodshed, no electricity or clean water, danger of the country blowing apart etc. In western North Africa, this must be different. Algeria and Morocco are clearly impacted. Where Egypt stands in this, I have no idea. Our tour guide last winter was surprisingly open in expressing that Mubarak is not a democratic president. I would have thought that that was a dangerous thing to say. In the long run the West clearly needs to let Islam in the politics of Arab countries. Keeping it out is not possible any more than keeping the religious right out of American politics. And we’ve seen that supporting governments who put electric wire in Islamists’ genitals just makes the movements more radical. So popular Islamic parties a la Turkey must be accepted, maybe even encouraged since they seem the movement most intrested in people and their values. ---
**Author:** ![Capitaine\_Zombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@Capitaine\_Zombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capitaine_Zombie)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/6 "2011-01-18T11:40:51Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > I never heard a thing about the Tunisian protests until today, and there has been precious little about it on TV news. I would like to believe that it would lead to an awakening of freedom and democracy in the Middle East, but given the way Islamic militants have of seizing power whenever a power vacuum occurs, I have to wonder if the result might be dangerous to US interests, and in fact to freedom and democracy in general. That must be a joke. I just cant take it seriously. ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/7 "2011-01-18T11:48:01Z")
> [@Capitaine\_Zombie](#): > > That must be a joke. I just cant take it seriously. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Therefore, a cite please? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/8 "2011-01-18T13:42:42Z")
Revolutions don’t always turn out well, you know. Look at France or at Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/9 "2011-01-18T17:40:28Z")
> [@Capitaine\_Zombie](#): > > That must be a joke. I just cant take it seriously. Oh, ye of little memory. I was referring to the[Algerian Civil War](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_Civil_War) in 1991. Particularly to this aspect of it: > [@](#): > > The army saw this outcome as unacceptable. The FIS had made open threats against the ruling pouvoir, condemning them as unpatriotic and pro-French, as well as financially corrupt. Additionally, FIS leadership was at best divided on the desirability of democracy, and some expressed fears that a FIS government would be, as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Edward Djerejian put it, “one man, one vote, one time.” Islamists are not friends of democracy, in case you are thinking that was the US State Department putting spin on the FIS, here’s a quote from Ali Behadj, the vice president of the FIS at the time: > [@](#): > > There is no democracy because the only source of power is Allah through the Koran, and not the people. If the people vote against the law of God, this is nothing other than blasphemy. In this case, it is necessary to kill the non-believers for the good reason that they wish to substitute their authority for that of God. I think under the circumstances it is reasonable to be concerned about power vacuums in Islamic societies, I mean, how well did that whole Iranian theocracy thing work out for us and the rest of the world? And Iran itself, come to think of it? My comment about the newscasts was intended as criticism, not belittling the importance of the events in Tunisia. I do not think the American media served me well by focusing on every little bit of minutiae about the Tucson shooting while virtually ignoring events in Tunisia. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/10 "2011-01-18T17:50:38Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Revolutions don’t always turn out well, you know. Look at France or at Russia. True. And in this region, secular leftist revolutions can, if outside influences screw thinks up in particular, go bad/fundamentalist very quickly. Like Iran. Hopefully we can get it right this time, and end up supporting democratization rather than creating an enemy. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/11 "2011-01-18T17:51:37Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > Is this likely happen in Egypt or Saudi? Would those governments let it happen? Where else are people most likely to be inspired to similar actions? Should we **want** it to happen? In many Islamic countries, if the current regime is overthrown, its successor is more likely to be an Islamist-Jihadist regime than anything else. In SA, the House of Saud’s main opposition comes from ultra-Wahhabists to whom the Sauds are not puritanical **enough.** ---
**Author:** ![Capitaine\_Zombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@Capitaine\_Zombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capitaine_Zombie)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/12 "2011-01-18T23:42:07Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Oh, ye of little memory. I was referring to the[Algerian Civil War](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_Civil_War) in 1991. Particularly to this aspect of it: > > Islamists are not friends of democracy, in case you are thinking that was the US State Department putting spin on the FIS, here’s a quote from Ali Behadj, the vice president of the FIS at the time: > > I think under the circumstances it is reasonable to be concerned about power vacuums in Islamic societies, I mean, how well did that whole Iranian theocracy thing work out for us and the rest of the world? And Iran itself, come to think of it? Seriously dude, who gives a fuck about the US on this subject ? Are you so far out that you cant view anything foreign without asking yourself whether if furthers US interests or not? The revolts in Tunisia and Algeria are not being controled nor started by Islamists. You seem to confuse Islam and Islamists. Tunisia, by Arab standards is rather laic. Even the current events in Algeria dont really compare to those of the early nineties. As for the Iranian Revolution, if really the US was hurt by it, then they reaped the proverbial whirlwind. For once we got a genuine popular movement in the Arab world that may lead to a far more democratic kind of regime, and may even set an example for the region. Compare that to Iraq. But maybe Iraq furthered American interests. In your view. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/13 "2011-01-18T23:59:49Z")
> [@Capitaine\_Zombie](#): > > Seriously dude, who gives a fuck about the US on this subject ? Are you so far out that you cant view anything foreign without asking yourself whether if furthers US interests or not? > The revolts in Tunisia and Algeria are not being controled nor started by Islamists. You seem to confuse Islam and Islamists. Tunisia, by Arab standards is rather laic. > Even the current events in Algeria dont really compare to those of the early nineties. > As for the Iranian Revolution, if really the US was hurt by it, then they reaped the proverbial whirlwind. > For once we got a genuine popular movement in the Arab world that may lead to a far more democratic kind of regime, and may even set an example for the region. > Compare that to Iraq. But maybe Iraq furthered American interests. In your view. It seems like one thing that isn’t really taken into account and that is the big demographic differences between the West and the Middle East/South Asia. The latter is so much younger that the people who were even sentient during, for example, the Iranian revolution, are outnumbered by younger people. So many of the people in countries with lots of Muslims are very young. They haven’t even fully formed their worldviews yet, so it is somewhat presumptuous of us to proclaim where they might fall on the Taliban - liberal secular Muslim continuum. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/14 "2011-01-19T17:31:52Z")
I’d love to see this kind of thing become more widespread over the next months and years but I wouldn’t bet on it. Although I never thought I’d see any Arab country revolt like this anytime soon so anything is possible. A few people have already set themselves on fire in Egypt and Algeria trying to kickstart a revolution there so you never know. You’d get an Islamist government if democratic elections were held in those countries, also a pro-Palestinian government in (majority Palestinian) Jordan if election were held there. Happy days. As far as Tunisia goes Ben Ali only fled because the head of the army told him he’d no longer shoot demonstrators. We may yet see a military coup with this guy taking power himself although I think he’d face exactly the same kind of protests and it’d be hard for the west to back him although they’d love to. The current interim government is trying to exclude the Islamists and the nationalists from taking part in elections. That’s not going to work very well. Based on experience if you start reading and watching lots of stories about an upsurge in violence, rioting, a “eweak government”, possible civil war and a threat from Islamists/AQ etc then expect a western-backed coup. But anything is possible right now, wait and see. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/15 "2011-01-20T20:40:29Z")
Interesting analysis from [_The Nation:_](http://www.thenation.com/article/157897/tunisia-rising) > [@](#): > > The initial lack of interest by the American press in the Tunisian protests may have something to do with the fact that there was no Islamic angle: the Tunisians were not trying to oust an Islamic regime, nor were they supporters of a religious ideology. In other words, this particular struggle for freedom was not couched in simple terms that are familiar to the Western media—Islam, bad; America, good—so it took a while for our commentariat to notice. > > While Tunisia, the poster child of a “moderate Arab country,” was in revolt against tyranny, the French foreign minister, Michèle Alliot-Marie, suggested to the Assemblée Nationale that, as part of the cooperation between the two countries, French troops could be sent to help stamp out the protests. The minister of culture, Frédéric Mitterrand, said that calling Tunisia a dictatorship was an exaggeration. Yet after Ben Ali was ousted, President Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly refused him entry into France. In a final irony, the dictator who had been praised in the West as a bulwark against Islamic extremism ran off to Saudi Arabia for safe haven. > > Meanwhile, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was on a tour of Gulf countries, lectured Arab states about the need for democratic reforms but scrupulously refrained from mentioning the Tunisian protests. The only official statement from President Obama came after Ben Ali had been ousted. Perhaps the Obama administration remained quiet because it had learned from its experience with Iran that it is best to let internal matters play out. Or perhaps it was a stunned silence at the realization that all the conventional thinking about the Arab world is wrong and that a popular revolution against tyranny can occur without American involvement. > > The reverberations of the Tunisian revolution were felt almost immediately, when Muammar el-Qaddafi scolded Tunisians that they should have had the patience to wait for Ben Ali to step down in 2014 and warned them about civil chaos. Of course, this was a warning to the Libyan people, who might feel inspired to topple their own tyrant. In Mauritania and Egypt—yes, two other “moderate Arab countries”—copycat self-immolations are creating deepening worry. And in Jordan the government has hurriedly put together a plan to lower the price of fuel and basic commodities. > > It is too early to tell whether Mohamed Ghannouchi’s interim government will be democratic. The appointment of the activist Slim Amamou as state secretary for youth and sports seems inspired, but the inclusion of several Ben Ali allies, particularly at the Interior Ministry, does not make for an auspicious start. Nor does the exclusion of parties banned under Ben Ali. The Tunisian people do not yet seem content with the government that is shaping up, and there are reports of continuing protests. The revolution is not over. In fact, it may have just begun. > > The Tunisian people are expecting justice for those who died, free and fair elections, and a new political order. But the three biggest lessons of their uprising have already been delivered far and wide. To the Arab dictators: you are not invincible. To the West: you are not needed. And to the Arab people: you are not powerless. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/16 "2011-01-20T22:05:23Z")
I disagree with that analysis of the Obama administration. My guess is that the administration would support a break against the Tunisian government if it knew the resulting government was not a fundamentalist one. Prematurely backing a moderate faction immediately turns them into “US lackeys”. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/17 "2011-01-26T00:15:09Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > Is this likely happen in Egypt or Saudi? Upon further review, well, _[maybe](http://www.bostonherald.com/news/international/africa/view.bg?articleid=1311892)_: > [@](#): > > Thousands of anti-government protesters, some hurling rocks and climbing atop an armored police truck, clashed with riot police Tuesday in the center of Cairo in a Tunisia-inspired demonstration to demand the end of Hosni Mubarak’s nearly 30 years in power. Three people were killed in confrontations around the country. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/18 "2011-01-26T00:26:44Z")
Go Egypt! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/19 "2011-01-26T00:59:59Z")
Hmm. If there were free elections in Egypt, who would win? How strong are Islamists there? ---
**Author:** ![Capitaine\_Zombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@Capitaine\_Zombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capitaine_Zombie)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/20 "2011-01-26T01:12:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Hmm. If there were free elections in Egypt, who would win? How strong are Islamists there? It’s being said the United States convinced the Tunisian Army not to intervene during the Tunisian Revolution. Doubt the States would do the same regarding Egypt. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703.md?page=2)