# Will Tunisian revolution inspire actions in other nations? (Now following Egypt.) \[ed. title\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 15, 2011, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703 "2011-01-15T09:24:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/181 "2011-01-30T03:03:06Z")
Biden was just being political. If Mubarak wins out, he will see we did not abandon him. If he loses and a new leader comes along,the new leader will not automatically hate us for backing Mubarak. We are kind of staying out. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/182 "2011-01-30T03:05:41Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > I hope you are right Even Sven but I dint think you are. A theocracy is the last thing we need in Egypt. Perhaps. _But it’s not our decision to be making._ ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/183 "2011-01-30T03:13:25Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > The Brotherhood got about 20% of the vote in the last election. An election that the Brotherhood encouraged full participation in. Only 20% of the available electorate voted. Why, that’s a ringing endorsement. So about 4%. Here’s a general cite from that hive of scum and villainy the Christian Science Monitor: > > [Egypt election routs popular Muslim Brotherhood from parliament - CSMonitor.com](http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/1201/Egypt-election-routs-popular-Muslim-Brotherhood-from-parliament) > > There are many, many others, and Google is such a great resource. > > You’ll need your own cites, Tom, for the Brotherhood being “armed and willing to use violence”. They have gone out of the way in Egypt, during the current unpleasantness, and for a good while before, not to do so. The Brotherhood got 20% of the vote in an election that most observers claim was skewed by direct government interference. Hardly evidence that they have lost clout among the people. (They have never been a majority, only the largest coherent opposition party–a point echoed by your link.) As to their Sinn Fein-like “only political” aspirations, I certainly hope you are right, but the current chaos is liable to re-energizetheir more IRA-like associates. Again, I am not claiming a done deal that the Brotherhood is going to sieze control in the manner of the Bolsheviks. And even if they do come to power, there is always the chance that they will govern responsibly. I simply note that predictions that Egypt cannot possibly be taken over by extremists seem, to me, to be indications more of hope than analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Capitaine\_Zombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@Capitaine\_Zombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capitaine_Zombie)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/184 "2011-01-30T03:24:48Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > It likely will not be an easy transition. Things will probably get worse before they get better. \*If this wave of revolution \*continues, it is probable that some extremist governments will get into power- certainly there ins’t much hope for Yemen. There are a lot of angry people, and they are angry at us, and to some degree they probably have a good reason to be. Can you honestly say you’d be cool with American if you were one of the people oppressed by Mubarak? These forces will come to the surface. It is this wave thing that keeps me hopeful. A revolution in Egypt only with just the Muslim Brotherhood at the helm doesnt sound like a very entertaining thought. But a tidal wave of revolutions hitting several major Middle Eastern counries at once, that’s just not the same dynamics anymore. I think everybody was surprised, the West was, of course, but probably most of the people actually living in those countries too. Those things happened fast and spontaneously (well, I’m using past tense, but I know I should use the present). P.S: **even sven** , I definitely share your feelings on the subject. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/185 "2011-01-30T03:40:53Z")
There may be more to come. Sub-Saharan Africa is littered with Cold War legacies, and there is no doubt that people are watching this quite intently. Africans are not stupid- they know that their revolutions usually end poorly- so they tend to keep the peace until things get truly dire. In any case, it’s the middle-class urban elites that keep people in power, and it’s rare for things to get so bad that they feel they have nothing to lose. But once you can’t afford food, that all goes away. Rising food prices is the one thing that can hit the urban power bases (who rely on buying food) harder than the poor (who are growing their food.) Meanwhile it seems more and more likely that France may be somewhat serious in keeping their promise to start disengaging from African politics. I think, finally, France is getting sick of micromanaging Francophone Africa. I think there is a good chance that Tunisia can pull it off well, and if that happens I think Sub-Saharan Africans will take notice. And God willing, in a world free of Cold War posturing, there is a small, small chance that it can work for them, too. There are finally international systems in place that seem to work (see how South Sudan was able to do everything by the book,) there are educated, inspiring potential leaders who for once are not being offed or bribed in Cold War intrigues. It might just be time for round two of African independence. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/186 "2011-01-30T03:52:01Z")
> [@newcomer](#): > > I’m at a loss at figuring out how Mubarak oppression of his own people is in the best interest of US? Was propping up Shah in Iran in US best interest? Probably not, but, in the context of Cold War geopolitics, it seemed so at the time. This year’s equivalent is the GWOT and it will inform all decisions of this kind. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/187 "2011-01-30T04:03:26Z")
Watching CNN. In Egypt’s larger cities, the army is in the streets, the police have withdrawn, and law and order have broken down. There is widespread looting, several deaths, 1,000 prisoners broke jail, and police stations have been raided for their weapons. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/188 "2011-01-30T04:20:01Z")
The stated aim of Osama bin Laden/al-Qaeda is a united Islamic Caliphate.\* I haven’t heard that idea (or anything else that might be called a form of internationalism) mentioned in connection with any of these uprisings, but if Islamists are involved in them, do those Islamists think that way? - I’ve never understood how they think Sunni and Shi’a Muslims could accept the same Caliph. It would be like having a Pope of All Catholics and Protestants. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/189 "2011-01-30T04:29:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Watching CNN. In Egypt’s larger cities, the army is in the streets, the police have withdrawn, and law and order have broken down. There is widespread looting, several deaths, 1,000 prisoners broke jail, and police stations have been raided for their weapons. The police are the looters. Mubarak is sending out plainclothes police with government-issue weapons to false-flag violence and looting in order to force the military to take action. Al Jazeera is saying that protesters are actually policing the city and taking “looters” into custody…protesters are the ones who discovered that the weapons carried by these “looters” are G.I. It’s likely that the regime released those prisoners, as well. The more chaos, the better the chances that a brutal crackdown won’t garner international opprobrium. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/190 "2011-01-30T04:35:57Z")
Just heard a Arab-American professor of Mideast studies comment that nobody seems to be **leading** this. It’s a real spontaneous mass uprising, and every party that might have put itself at the front of it has held back, fearing backlash. Which doesn’t mean they can’t exploit it. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/191 "2011-01-30T04:39:50Z")
Which means its like the Iranian Revolution then. A leadership vacuum which will be used by whosoever is smart and savvy enough to exploit properly. Dose the Muslim Bortherhood or I dunno the Pharaoh Association have a Khomeini like figure? ---
**Author:** ![Capitaine\_Zombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@Capitaine\_Zombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capitaine_Zombie)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/192 "2011-01-30T05:34:46Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > The police are the looters. Mubarak is sending out plainclothes police with government-issue weapons to false-flag violence and looting in order to force the military to take action. Al Jazeera is saying that _protesters are actually policing the city and taking “looters” into custody_…protesters are the ones who discovered that the weapons carried by these “looters” are G.I. So, the protesters are arresting the police for looting? That’s truly a Revolution. BTW: Ben Ali used the exact same tactics in Tunisia. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Buttons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a6a055/32.png) [@Mr\_Buttons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Buttons)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/193 "2011-01-30T06:20:03Z")
> [@Capitaine\_Zombie](#): > > So, the protesters are arresting the police for looting? That’s truly a Revolution. > BTW: Ben Ali used the exact same tactics in Tunisia. That might be a totalitarian college course on the 200+ level of college of courses, but I believe it 90% as an outsider, and if I were an Egyptian I’d probably believe it 100% at this point. When in need, to bring an ambivalent army to save your side, call in YOUR looters to disrupt stuff, in order to bring the military to action… (for your side of course.) ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/194 "2011-01-30T06:36:06Z")
Why do people believe that Totalitarian governments are so efficient that they always have 100 control over all their minions. These people are so Machiavellian that they can imagine up schemes to put the blame on the protesters for disorder by ordering organised looting (an oxymoron if I ever heard one) but so incompetent otherwise that they cannot even prevent their own police stations from falling. Even if the reports about police looting are true most likely it is some guy who has lost contact with headquaters since it burnt down (along with his paycheck for the month) who decides “well what the hell, its my sons birthday next month and my wife banished me to the couch for a week since she discovered my gay porn collection, a necklace might calm her down.” As it is said in [Tvtropes](http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NoDelaysForTheWicked) ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/195 "2011-01-30T06:37:15Z")
OTOH, maybe these “policemen” are acting independently. After all, if you hire thugs as cops, you shouldn’t be surprised if they act like thugs. On edit: dammit, **AK84**. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/196 "2011-01-30T07:37:41Z")
Incidentally: [demonstrations scheduled for Sunday in Khartoum](http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/29/sudan_next) ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/197 "2011-01-30T12:51:08Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Watching CNN. In Egypt’s larger cities, the army is in the streets, the police have withdrawn, and law and order have broken down. There is widespread looting, several deaths, 1,000 prisoners broke jail, and police stations have been raided for their weapons. Of course, it is worth noting that the police have been looting, shooting the protestors, and letting people out of jail. Or killing them in jail. No, that’s not a joke. The people who broke into the Egyptian Museum were identified as police, as were the people who broken into the children’s cancer hospital, as well as various looters on bicycles. The military is currently enforcing curfew so they can stop looters, and attempting to protect what they can. They’re being really good about the whole thing. It’s also worth noting that the Egyptian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, as these things go, is secularized, but not secular. Think of 'em as the Protestant version rather than the Evangelical. Everything in Egypt still has religion tied to it, but they’re really not as bad as it could be. It’s also worth noting that the head of the Muslim Brotherhood has stated they will _not_ try to take over as President, and this whole matter has started purely on pro-democratic demands from the people. Get your news from people who are closer to the source, people. CNN is not worth watching anymore. Sadly. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/198 "2011-01-30T12:57:36Z")
It might be that the policemen are acting independently, but there’s a _fuckload_ of them doing it. Further, they’re attacking high-profile, low-profit locations, like a children’s cancer hospital and the Egyptian Museum. And they’re not looting, they’re just wrecking. It’s a bit unlike Katrina-style looting in that manner. The military is viewed by Egyptians as their protector. And it looks like the military is responding as such. The odds are really good that the military is going to take control in the end, and, if they continue to behave as expected, it will be a relatively brief control, passing to an interm president, then passing to an elected president. Because everything is still intact. If Mubarak’s nerve breaks, this looks, so far, like the tidiest revolution I’ve ever seen. And yes, there is no head. This is a People’s Revolution. They’re mad as hell and they’re not gonna take it anymore. Kind of makes you proud of the human spirit, doesn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/199 "2011-01-30T13:31:32Z")
For what it’s worth BCC reports: > [@](#): > > A coalition of opposition groups issue a statement asking Mohamed ElBaradei to form a transitional government. They call on the Nobel Laureate “during this transitional stage, to act in the internal and external affairs of the nation, and to form a temporary government… and to dissolve parliament and draft a new constitution which enables the Egyptian people to freely choose its representatives in parliament and elect a legitimate president.” The statement was signed by the 6 April Movement, the We are all Khalid Said Movement, the National Assembly for Change and the 25 January Movement. I hope somehow all the opposition could get behind this, as I guess El Baradie is a figure the Americans may not freak out about. Frankly just watching BBC, I have the sense the Americans better find a new horse soon or we’re going to see some nasty, nasty things in Egypt. UK is asking citizens to evac, and so is India, BBC indicated they’re sending planes. I can’t recall the Indians doing that before. Oh let me second that CNN (Int’l where I am) is complete shite. I am sure you can get BBC either via Sat or via Internet broadcast. Far more worth your time. The BCC journos actually have something of a clue. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2011, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703/200 "2011-01-30T13:42:56Z")
I can’t actually find any decent American coverage of this. Huffpo is crap, because, well, it’s totally out of their range of experience. Fox is crap, cause fox. CNN is crap because… I’m actually confused by that. MSNBC is crap cause fox. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-tunisian-revolution-inspire-actions-in-other-nations-now-following-egypt-ed-title/567703.md?page=11)