# Will unrealistic expectations of driver less cars make them infeasible? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 19, 2014, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763 "2014-05-19T19:55:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/21 "2014-05-20T01:09:25Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I think there’s a touch of overconcern about this issue. Insurers will offer coverage against systemic failure, doing the math just as they do for potential damages caused by human drivers. I really don’t know if insurers will in turn pursue manufacturers for compensation but I don’t think this uncertainty is a dealbreaker for the advance of the technology. If accident rates – and deaths and injuries – are dramatically lowered, then all three legs of the stool (humans, manufacturers, insurers) are the better for it. This is what I think will drive the market. If it cost me $150 a month in insurance to drive a Ford vs $75 a month to drive a Nissan equivalent, then as a consumer I’ll have more incentive to buy a Nissan. And as a manufacturer, I’ll have every incentive to get my safety ratings up so I can best Nissan’s insurance rates so I can sell more cars. This is actually a rare instance in which a business model benefits everyone involved. ---
**Author:** ![Spiderman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spiderman/32/230_2.png) [@Spiderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiderman)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/22 "2014-05-20T02:41:19Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > Computer driven cars will still make errors, and those errors will require insurance. They will become widespread at the point that those errors are significantly lower than the errors made by human drivers. Race track driving has already shown that computers can be programed to drive faster than the most daring human without losing control. This is the argument against them. Race tracks are (private) roads that are in great condition & aren’t used in bad weather. Our governments can’t maintain our existing roads. Look at all the potholes, & worn/missing lane lines, & closed bridges because they’ve deteriorated to the point that they are structurally deficient. What happens when there’s heavy rain/ponding or snow on the road? What happens when one of us takes our old jalopy out for a ride, the one w/o car-to-car communications? What happens when there is a cyclist or a runner on the road? What happens when I get to the end of the magical driverless expressway & I haven’t finished my nap/reading the chapter? I’m not a big fan of cruise control. Yes, I’ll use it a bit to rest my leg on long drives, say 5 minutes an hour. However, I find it easier to be become distracted if I’m not using my brain (& leg) to drive at my desired speed. I’m fearful of it driving for me & then turning onto a road that it can’t handle & me (or you) not recognizing this fact. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/23 "2014-05-20T03:32:33Z")
If it can go 500,000 miles without an accident in regular traffic, it is a lot better driver than I am. Far safer. ---
**Author:** ![drachillix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/48db29/32.png) [@drachillix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drachillix)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/24 "2014-05-20T03:42:22Z")
The complicated part is not bad road, its other drivers/vehicles. A couple potholes are not going to send the system into a fit. Google already has some ReallyFuckingSmartPeopleTM throwing the system curveballs all day long trying to break it, so they can teach it to deal. Insurance is a non issue, you are still responsible for your car, period. You want to blame the manufacturer, sue like you would over any other mechanical defect. The manufacturers are not complete morons and stand to lose alot if they put out a self driving car with shitty driving skills. Sure there are people who can out drive the computer. They will probably be in the top 5-10% of drivers, not the top 50% that will claim to. Too many variables for a computer? Yet morons who didn’t start high school can do it effectively? Driving computers will be tracking and doing things no human could hope to manage especially in a crisis: Monitor individual wheel RPM Apply brakes to individual wheels Awareness Of angles, vector, and position no human could follow 360 degree visibility and awareness of moving objects the driver cannot see the ability to stop a car safely even with the driver incapacitated If a car sees something that confuses it, it can always default to stop and have the human driver handle it. A computer can run half a dozen sets of calculations modifying those calculations as the situation develops and choose a best case scenario faster than a human being would even realize he has a problem. Ask anyone in EMS, its not a lack of skill that causes accidents, its shitty decision making. People try to “beat the light”, try to turn too fast on wet roads, driving under the influence, tired, not paying attention, distracted, the list goes on. Trucking companies are already drooling over the idea that long haul trucks might be able to run longer days if not 24 hours and making better gearing/speed decisions for better mileage. I heard a rumor walmart is already hoping to run things like having trucks running without a driver between distribution centers and stores then have the dock crews on each end handle parking/docking at each end. My concern is more with customization. Change rims/tires and you can introduce shifts in how the car perceives its situation. granted common tire types can be tested but plenty of folks will try to do their own tire swaps then blame the car when it starts erroring out of auto drive when wheel speed and sensor speed do not line up. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/25 "2014-05-20T04:47:13Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > the ability of autonomous vehicles capable of engaging in vehicle to vehicle (V2V) comunication to form ad hoc convoys with less intervehicle spacing - improving mpg, traffic flow, and safety simultaneously. The thing that will really improve mpg is when the evolution of self-driving cars makes single-occupancy cars the norm. A car configured to carry just one person and maybe a bag or two of groceries will require a lot less fuel than even the most efficient car designed to carry 4-5 people. The thing about self-driving cars is, once a driver is no longer required, you’ll only need to own as much car as you use every day, because Zipcar won’t need to be on your block - if you need a 4-passenger car for a weekend family trip to Grandma’s, you can have Zipcar send you that car from their lot a few miles away. So Zipcar and its competitors can work in the 'burbs as well as in the cities. You’ll be able to get extra car capacity when you need it, so people will start buying only as much car as they use daily, and the single-occupancy car will take off. (Figuratively, not literally - we’re talking _self-driving_ cars here, not _flying_ cars. ;)) ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/26 "2014-05-20T05:16:05Z")
RT, That makes me wonder, will taxi companies be successful in blocking this new form of competition? We see with Tesla that dealerships can be successful in blocking direct sales. Taxi companies and probably bus driver unions will be opposed to this. Taxi companies could make the case that it’s an automated form of taxi cab for which they need to buy a permit and those are purposefully limited in number. Hopefully they won’t prevail and I guess they’ll eventually lose but it could take a while. I also wonder if people who insist on driving themselves will eventually be seen as weird and reckless control freaks. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/27 "2014-05-20T05:30:56Z")
What happens when the plaintiff’s bar get a hold of this. They contribute huge sums to political parties and will find any and all excuses to sue on the first error, real,or imagined, of an autonomous vehicle. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/28 "2014-05-20T05:33:27Z")
Computer reliability is served through redundancy. The space shuttle had 3 independent piloting computers that could override each other, there is no practical reason that this could not be duplicated in automobile-auto-pilot, and it probably ought to be. As well as redundancy in telemetry systems. Failure should not be an option, even if it results in a costlier design. Nor should zombie reliance on the accuracy of current GPS information – which I think has resulted in humans driving into impassable situations. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/29 "2014-05-20T06:12:10Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > What happens when the plaintiff’s bar get a hold of this. They contribute huge sums to political parties and will find any and all excuses to sue on the first error, real,or imagined, of an autonomous vehicle. As a member of the Plaintiff’s bar, I can give you some clues. There will be black boxes, and those will have video and speed data. They will show exactly what happened, eliminating a lot of time wasted in litigation currently. The owners of these vehicles will still have required auto insurance that will pay for damages, and juries will not care if the passengers are drunk. It will reduce damage awards because it will not become insurable until it reduces the number and severity of accidents. After that point, insurance companies will first encourage it with discounts, and eventually require it. Judges and juries do not make damage awards higher when a machine does the damage, they still award the damages. Unless there are allegations that Google (or whatever company that comes forward with this) committed some kind of fraud, there will be no punitive damage awards, just compensatory, which we already have. To get compensatory damages, you need to show causation. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/30 "2014-05-20T06:13:07Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#): > > RT, > > That makes me wonder, will taxi companies be successful in blocking this new form of competition? We see with Tesla that dealerships can be successful in blocking direct sales. Taxi companies and probably bus driver unions will be opposed to this. Taxi companies could make the case that it’s an automated form of taxi cab for which they need to buy a permit and those are purposefully limited in number. > > . Well, the right side of history seems to suggest that automated cars ARE going to happen, it’s just a matter of when. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/31 "2014-05-20T06:14:53Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#): > > RT, > > That makes me wonder, will taxi companies be successful in blocking this new form of competition? We see with Tesla that dealerships can be successful in blocking direct sales. Taxi companies and probably bus driver unions will be opposed to this. Taxi companies could make the case that it’s an automated form of taxi cab for which they need to buy a permit and those are purposefully limited in number. > > Hopefully they won’t prevail and I guess they’ll eventually lose but it could take a while. > > I also wonder if people who insist on driving themselves will eventually be seen as weird and reckless control freaks. Well, the right side of history seems to suggest that automated cars ARE going to happen, it’s just a matter of when. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2014, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/32 "2014-05-28T06:06:05Z")
The future is approaching quicker than anyone thought. This may actually become common within my lifetime. Google launches 25 mph driverless car No steering wheel included. > [@](#): > > Google last night announced it will start building its self-driving car - and it plans to have the revolutionary vehicles on roads within a year. > > Co-founder Sergey Brin unveiled the car - which will be equipped only with a stop/go button and be capable of speeds up to 25mph - at a conference in California. > > Rather than reworking an existing car, the tech giant has built its own model and is working on around 100 prototypes to test out later this summer. The goal is for the car to ‘shoulder the entire burden of driving.’ ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2014, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/33 "2014-05-28T07:24:38Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The thing that will really improve mpg is when the evolution of self-driving cars makes single-occupancy cars the norm. A car configured to carry just one person and maybe a bag or two of groceries will require a lot less fuel than even the most efficient car designed to carry 4-5 people. > > The thing about self-driving cars is, once a driver is no longer required, you’ll only need to own as much car as you use every day, because Zipcar won’t need to be on your block - if you need a 4-passenger car for a weekend family trip to Grandma’s, you can have Zipcar send you that car from their lot a few miles away. So Zipcar and its competitors can work in the 'burbs as well as in the cities. You’ll be able to get extra car capacity when you need it, so people will start buying only as much car as they use daily, and the single-occupancy car will take off. (Figuratively, not literally - we’re talking _self-driving_ cars here, not _flying_ cars. ;)) My belief is that cars will become modular - they will be single occupant with a small electric motor, but will be able to connect to each other with retractable doors when two, four or even 8 people want to be in the same vehicle. There will be “luggage modules” that will also attach as and when needed ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2014, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/34 "2014-05-28T07:39:08Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > If accident rates – and deaths and injuries – are dramatically lowered, then all three legs of the stool (humans, manufacturers, insurers) are the better for it. Not actually correct. Insurers will be much worse off. Insurers make money two ways: - the volume of cash they churn, off of which they make _investment profit_. - the margin between claims and premium off of which they make _underwriting profit_ The former is usually the biggest earner: most people don’t understand that insurance is mostly about making money off investing premiums received _now_ before claims are paid out _later_. There is often little or no margin of premium received over claims paid. Insurers do like things that reduce their risk to some extent because it gives them a short term profit: typically the risk goes down first, but premiums go down later because it takes competition in the market a while to catch up. In the long term however, disruptive-level reduction in risk just tends to contract the market, reducing the ability to make investment profit, and leaving smaller volume on which to make underwriting profit. I don’t think insurers will try to hinder self-driving cars: they won’t be able to resist the sugar hit from initial reductions in claims. Long term however, if self driving cars massively reduce auto accidents, it is going to reduce the entire motor vehicle insurance market to a small fraction of its current bulk. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2014, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/35 "2014-05-28T07:42:15Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#): > > That makes me wonder, will taxi companies be successful in blocking this new form of competition? Maybe. Or maybe the owners of taxi companies will be the companies that invest in self driving taxi fleets. I know taxi fleets are sometimes owned by driver co-operatives but excepting that, most taxi companies will see profit _increases_ if they can get rid of their need to employ drivers. ---
**Author:** ![SpeedwayRyan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@SpeedwayRyan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpeedwayRyan)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2014, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/36 "2014-05-30T12:31:20Z")
Google wants their car to “shoulder the entire burden of driving.” Google and I differ right from the start if they consider driving to be a burden. I don’t care if all the texting, makeup-applying, hamburger-eating morons get a car that drives itself…it’s safer for them. But I won’t give up the wheel until it’s a law, and even then I’m sure I’ll go drive on private tracks etc. ---
**Author:** ![drachillix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/48db29/32.png) [@drachillix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drachillix)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2014, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/37 "2014-06-04T23:12:26Z")
> [@SpeedwayRyan](#): > > Google and I differ right from the start if they consider driving to be a burden. As a guy who drives alot and gets tons of phone calls due to being self employed, this is the equivalent of me getting a driver so that I can manage my business on the go, an extra $10K on an self driving car/truck would be the best $10K I ever spent. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2014, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/38 "2014-06-05T00:03:04Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > If it can go 500,000 miles without an accident in regular traffic, it is a lot better driver than I am. Far safer. The Google cars travel some times on the road I commute to work on. It isn’t regular traffic, it is traffic from hell. The elimination of road boulders, dive bombers, car poolers who cross four lanes in 1/8 mile, and nitwits in general will make my drive a lot safer and faster. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2014, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/39 "2014-06-05T00:05:25Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > The public doesn’t realize these things. The public aren’t airline pilots, the public drives cars. But while the public is sure that they personally are great drivers, they are also sure that most other drivers are incompetent jerks, and that getting them away from the wheel will be a very good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2014, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763/40 "2014-06-05T00:13:11Z")
> [@Spiderman](#): > > This is the argument against them. Race tracks are (private) roads that are in great condition & aren’t used in bad weather. Our governments can’t maintain our existing roads. Look at all the potholes, & worn/missing lane lines, & closed bridges because they’ve deteriorated to the point that they are structurally deficient. > What happens when there’s heavy rain/ponding or snow on the road? What happens when one of us takes our old jalopy out for a ride, the one w/o car-to-car communications? What happens when there is a cyclist or a runner on the road? What happens when I get to the end of the magical driverless expressway & I haven’t finished my nap/reading the chapter? > I’m not a big fan of cruise control. Yes, I’ll use it a bit to rest my leg on long drives, say 5 minutes an hour. However, I find it easier to be become distracted if I’m not using my brain (& leg) to drive at my desired speed. I’m fearful of it driving for me & then turning onto a road that it can’t handle & me (or you) not recognizing this fact. I assure you, the roads the Google cars have been driving on have plenty of pot holes and worn out lane markers. There are also plenty of runners and cyclists here. And the cars are not limited to the freeway. Here is why they are really going to succeed. Older, experienced drivers are better than new drivers. It takes some time to get good, then you get old and get worse, and give up driving to a new generation. When driverless cars get better due to experience, faster hardware, and better algorithms, the improvements will be spread to all the cars. There are no teenage driverless cars. There are no geezer driverless cars. My father-in-law gave up his car, which was the right thing to do. When I get to be his age I won’t be dependent on taxi services - I’ll have a car which will safely take me to the doctor and to the store. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-unrealistic-expectations-of-driver-less-cars-make-them-infeasible/688763.md?page=3)