Voyager might eventually make its own way back to us, if some sources are to be believed.
V’Ger will return to us some day. Just too bad we never got around to sending the other 4 probes out.
I thought Pioneer 10 was the first to leave the Solar System? A short perusing of Wikipedia just leaves me more confused…
Depends on how you define the boundary of the Solar System.
And the concept of the Wait Calculation certainly precedes the year 2006, even if that’s the origin of that name of it. In Civilization II (or was it I?), in the mid 90s, one of the victory conditions was to send a spaceship to alpha Centauri. You could send it early, with relatively low tech (“early” and “low tech” both being relative terms here, of course), or tech up further and launch later with the hope of passing by the earlier launches.
Both Civ I and Civ II worked this way. That’s my useful contribution to this discussion over, sadly.
Pioneer 10 was the first spacecraft to reach escape velocity of the Sun, which means it would forever travel away from the Sun. But Voyager 1 and 2, launched 5 years later, reached even faster speeds. Voyager 1 “overtook” Pioneer 10 (i.e. got farther from the Sun) in 1998.
Whether Pioneer 10 “left the solar system” before it was overtaken by Voyager 1 - that depends on what you mean by “leave the solar system.” It was well past the orbit of Neptune and Pluto, but hadn’t reached the edge of the heliosphere.
Even if we had the technology and energy budget to consider retrieving it, which I think very unlikely, I think it would be rather sad if we did. To let it drift through space would be a more fitting tribute.
The idea is hardly new. My memory is failing me on this, but I remember reading a SciFi story over 30 years ago that featured a group of vanguard explorers (on their way to a star whilst in suspended animation) that were overtaken when about half way to their destination by a now vastly more advance human race that made the journey almost as a regular commute. The main story was more about dealing with culture shock, but as I said, the idea isn’t new. My feeling about the story was that it was not a recent writing when I read it.
The notion used in the Wait Calculation isn’t exactly new either. There was a lovely paper some time ago discussing the question of computational physics. The basic question being, that if you won a grant to purchase a supercomputer to solve a problem, and it would take X years at current compute speeds, when it the right time to buy the supercomputer. They showed that for a 5 year project, the best time to buy was a little under 4 years off. This got you the answer faster than any other strategy.
Have any of the probes reached galactic escape velocity? If not, won’t they return in about 150M years?
I think it was James Blish who wrote a story where the first starship crew reached their target planet and were greeted by cheering crowds who were the descendants of the crews of later, faster starships.
Robert Heinlein wrote about that too, in the novel about the telepathically-linked twins, where one goes to interstellar space on a slow starship.
I think Asimov had something similar in Nemesis, too, though the time difference wasn’t nearly so great there.
If you sent out a faster starship that got to Alpha Centauri sooner than a slower vessel that left earlier on, waiting for that slower starship to finally show up when you can pick them up along the way seems rude.
You are assuming the second ship would have the extra room for the members of the first crew and the supplies needed for them all to get there. I guess you could say they should think about that when building the second ship though.
You think a couple of couple of ~6 foot probes will outlast every building on earth? :dubious:
I am not.
Without a doubt. Earth is a very active, destructive, corrosive place. Compare that to deep space, in which you have stable temperatures, no free moisture, no decomposing life forms, no earthquakes (or any tectonic activity) and no people running around blowing stuff up. Seriously, on a long-enough scale, the ground under a building won’t even be the ground anymore - it will have been weathered off or buried.
Furthermore, our current crop of buildings won’t even outlast some of the ancient ones like the pyramids. They’re beautifully and efficiently designed… but are not meant to withstand centuries of time.
Of course, by a long shot.
There are all kinds of forces on Earth–weather, plate tectonics, rust, erosion, artillery–that conspire in one way or another to make short work of everything we make, not just buildings. The oldest known man-made structures are no more than 6,000 years old.
The Pioneers, Voyagers, and others we’ve sent out on the other hand face none of these challenges. They get hit by micrometeorites once in a while but as they get further away from a star (e.g., the Sun) and all its attendant debris they’ll come into contact with fewer and fewer objects of appreciable size. Even radiation–which doesn’t exactly destroy them in any case–will be less of a factor.
Current projections say Voyager 1 will come near a star again some 40,000 years from now. Voyager 2 will stray near Sirius 296,000 years hence. Pioneer 10: Aldeberan in 2 million years.
You’re going to bet on the Sears Tower being here in the year 298,000 AD? Over a couple ~6 foot probes that will be floating through, for all practical purposes, nothing for tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of years?
Wow, we must have some telepathic connection, typing basically the same exact thing at the same exact time!
Also see the short story “Far Centaurus” by A.E. van Vogt.
Yes, the van is not capitalized.