The fact is, nobody knows for sure. Certainly not The Experts. As we’ve discussed earlier in this thread, it’s up to each person to collect whatever facts are available and then determine their own comfort level WRT risk and proceed accordingly. That may mean going out sans mask to a bar tonight (if you can find one that’s open) or staying in, ordering grocery delivery, and taking solitary walks for another six months to a year.
Was talking about different weed, my friend.
I’ve long said I wanted to head off to the body farm. Even picked out my outfit! My wife has problems w/ that. Maybe we’ll both get lucky and she’ll predecease me! Or maybe I’ll die before the local bulk trash pickup, and she can just fold me into a contractor’s bag and slap a sticker on me…
Yes except for people who have been furloughed, laid off, or unable to WFH. If TPTB say HEY, it’s all fixed now! Come back to work you slackers!! Then people who can’t WFH will have to go back to the office if their jobs still await them or go out and try to find work in a possible recession. And if they don’t because they’re concerned about a COVID resurgence, then they will be bringing in no money and will probably no longer be eligible for those unemployment benefits.
Yeah, the vast majority of Americans won’t have much choice about when they go back to work physically. The WFH and retirees are mainly the ones who’ll get to act on their assessed risk.
Social distancing may need to last until 2022, Harvard study shows. Coronavirus: Social distancing may need to last until 2022, Harvard study shows
Did you read what I said or just not understand it? I said people need to consider *"…whatever **facts *are available and then determine their own comfort level WRT risk and proceed accordingly." One of those **facts **is the need to work for the income and/or for the health insurance.
Social change happens on the margins. ‘We’ aren’t going to stop going to concerts - but some people will on the margins. People who already were on the fence about certain activities may be swayed by the virus. Expect attendance to be somewhat lower at hockey games and other public events. The cruise industry will not collapse, but it might shrink. Etc. There may be tipping points that lead to radical changes, but by definition they aren’t predictable.
For example, let’s say that telework doubles, from maybe 5% to 10%. This doubling of the market woild attract more investment in better tools, which in turn makes it easier to teleconference, which causes even more people to do it… But we really don’t know.
Much will depend on whether this is a one-off event, or if Pandemics become an increasingly common feature of an increasingly dense, increasingly globalized world. I think permanent change in behaviour requires repeat shocks. We’ll go back to normal after this, but if another wave hits us in fall, and another in spring, and another next fall… At some point, defensive behaviour will just become part of society as it is in some Asian countries today.
Another way to think about prediction is to look at trends that had already started. Fist-bumping or other acknowledgement could take the place of casual handshakes. On the other hand, the role of the handshake as a serious sign of commitment or agreement could increase.
Another trend that was already underway was the exodus of people from large crowded cities. The combination of increased telework and memory of the pain experienced by this episode will only accelerate that. This is doubly true for cities that heavily rely on mass transit to move the people around.
But that isn’t a choice for them if politicians who are more concerned about the stock market than people’s health basically make the decision for them. Joe Schmoe may still be afraid to go out but be forced to by his governor’s decision that everything is fine now.
Ah, that’s the one. Thanks.