# Will we walk on Mars in your lifetime? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 27, 2013, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680 "2013-07-27T17:02:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2013, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/21 "2013-07-27T22:15:38Z")
Eggs. Baskets. C’mon guys. We need more baskets. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/22 "2013-07-28T01:24:57Z")
At my age (76) I can say certainly not. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 7:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/23 "2013-07-28T07:34:18Z")
> [@TreacherousCretin](#): > > I’m 62, and would have voted “probably.” I’m 67, and voted “No.” ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/24 "2013-07-28T13:10:23Z")
I’m 59 and said No. ---
**Author:** ![Antigen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/848f3c/32.png) [@Antigen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antigen)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/25 "2013-07-28T14:18:41Z")
> [@Arrendajo](#): > > I hope not. I think it would be a huge waste of money and resources that could be put to better use, considering we can explore this cold dead planet perfectly well with robots and satellites. The thing with exploration is that you can always argue against it by pointing to other things that are more deserving of attention and money. World hunger! Disease! But planetary exploration isn’t just a walk to Mars to take some pictures to put on Facebook. **Trinopus** nailed it: > [@Trinopus](#): > > What tips the balance, just very slightly, in favor of going to Mars is that it will likely lead to a lot of side-stream technological advances. We’ll learn a lot about materials and engineering and the like, which will be useful here on earth. This was one of the best things to come out of the Mercury/Gemini/Apollo era, and is certainly one of the great things coming out of the current satellite/robot space age. Every time we push our limits and try to do something big, we gain [all sorts of other things](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_spin-off_technologies) along the way. It’s because we _can’t_ do it yet that we should _try_ to do it. The constraints of the trip to Mars will push us to figure out how to make things smaller and lighter, and make better and more efficient engines. It’s such a long trip that it might make sense for them to grow their own food - how would they manage that in space? How can we protect the astronauts from the radiation they’ll encounter on the way? Solving these problems for a Mars trip will improve things for the rest of us, too. I hope I get to see it in my lifetime, but I worry that the first trip will be one-way (privately funded - I doubt NASA would go for that plan). While we’d still learn so much from it, it would be sad if they never came home. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/26 "2013-07-28T15:15:33Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > I’m 59 and said No. A better question would be to ask when it will happen-in 10, 20, 50, 100 years. ---
**Author:** ![Heracles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heracles/32/487_2.png) [@Heracles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heracles)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/27 "2013-07-28T18:32:07Z")
I’m 45 and I voted no. I would like to see it happen but I don’t see anybody who would be willing to fund it in the next 40 years. ---
**Author:** ![pancakes3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ba9def/32.png) [@pancakes3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pancakes3)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/28 "2013-07-28T19:10:08Z")
> [@aNewLeaf](#): > > China will have a permanent base on the Moon in my lifetime. > I’m less sure about manned Mars missions, but it will be “in the works” at least. I find a manned Mars mission much more likely than a permanent moon base. I’m 26 and I tentatively voted “yes” but under the assumption that I stretch the limits of my age potential. ---
**Author:** ![Telperion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telperion/32/509_2.png) [@Telperion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telperion)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/29 "2013-07-28T20:49:20Z")
Nah. One does not simply walk on Mars. ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/30 "2013-07-28T20:57:36Z")
I’ll go further and say as long as space travel is based on chemical rocket combustion the answer is “never”. If that changes then a re-consideration will be necessary. Given the insane cost and resources to this and the lack of a compelling scientific reason to go what are we going to do on Mars that robots can’t do for fraction of the cost and risk? On practical basis very little. It’s would be strictly an ego driven visit. ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/31 "2013-07-28T21:12:08Z")
No, and I’m also leaning towards never. There’s not much point really. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/32 "2013-07-28T21:26:36Z")
> [@Telperion](#): > > Nah. One does not simply walk on Mars. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire, ash, and dust. The very air you breathe is a poisonous fume. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/33 "2013-07-28T21:29:13Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > No, and I’m also leaning towards never. > > There’s not much point really. I might go along with that POV. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2013, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/34 "2013-07-28T23:35:15Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > A better question would be to ask when it will happen-in 10, 20, 50, 100 years. Definitely not in 10, extremely unlikely in 20, possible in 50 with dedicated effort, and perhaps likely in 100 provided that one or more nations or corporate interests develop space resource extraction and utilization technologies and a orbital manufacturing infrastructure. Many space enthusiasts assume that a crewed mission to Mars is just a slightly harder version of the Apollo program, but in fact the distance, duration, radiation environments, delta velocity requirements, and other challenges this effort fundamentally more difficult and costly and complicated than the short duration missions to the Moon. A crewed Mars mission would require logistical and sustainability requirements that are vastly beyond what current launch and space habitation technologies can provide, not to mention a degree of individual subsystem reliabilities which are at least two orders of magnitude greater than current systems such as the International Space Station. There are a series of enabling technologies, such as nuclear propulsion, in-situ resource utilization, space manufacturing and assembly, space and hostile environment habitation, et cetera which need significant advancement before an effective crewed mission to Mars or another planet could be sent with a reasonable probability (\>95%) of success and at a cost which would not be exorbitant. As for China engaging on such a mission, it should be pointed out that the Chinese are demonstrating the same basic capabilities developed by the United States and the former Soviet Union circa 1965, and doing so at a relatively slow pace. While the Chinese are certainly showing an interest in the military applications of space systems, the crewed program appears to be strictly as a demonstration of national prestige. Given the difficulties encountered by the Apollo missions with the Lunar surface environment (specifically the charged dust which clings to everything and may present adverse health effects for long term exposure) a permanent Lunar base by China or any other interest is unlikely. The cost and technical challenges of an interplanetary mission are well beyond the existing and projected capability of the Chinese space program, which has yet to send even an uncrewed vehicle beyond Earth orbit. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2013, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/35 "2013-07-29T01:08:21Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire, ash, and dust. The very air you breathe is a poisonous fume. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly. “fire”? ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2013, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/36 "2013-07-29T01:14:10Z")
Google it. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![chargerrich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chargerrich/32/5399_2.png) [@chargerrich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chargerrich)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2013, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/37 "2013-07-29T14:03:29Z")
Delusional I say… no human will step foot on the red planet in this century more less in the lifetime of anyone posting here, and this is coming from a bonafide space nerd. Money, political will and need. Unless diamond rivers or Marvin is found, we are not going. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2013, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/38 "2013-07-29T15:47:04Z")
I vote no, and that’s at least as much me hoping that we don’t try. Yes, space exploration is really cool, and getting the first pioneers into space and onto the moon were amazing accomplishments, but those were driven by the cold war more than science. What sort of real benefit do we get from sending humans to Mars that justifies that expense and risk over a well designed probe? It’s not like humans can do anything on Mars they don’t have the tools for, particularly given the harsh environment. This is a big reason why we haven’t sent more people to the Moon in decades and why we haven’t started seriously working toward going to Mars. Sure, people would line up for it even if it were guaranteed they wouldn’t return alive, but even the expense of getting them there alive is magnitudes greater than a probe, and imagine the egg on the face of the people who tried and things went horribly wrong. So, other than a nationalistic ego stroke, it just isn’t worth the expense and risk, the return on knowledge per investment is just WAY too high, and given the current economic issues and diminishing resources, it just looks like a worse and worse idea. That said, I would be in favor of sending men to Mars or some other non-terrestrial body if the goal were to create a colony and/or terraform it, because we’d need to be sending people there to do that job, though it would probably need to start with some probes to set things up first. Still, the idea of colonizing and terraforming Mars or some other body is clearly well beyond the expected lifespan of anyone alive, so I’m not holding my breath for that. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/39 "2013-07-30T03:45:49Z")
Well, flying a kite in a thunderstorm was of absolutely no use to anyone, at the time. Electricity was an vague curiosity that some odd people fooled around with. As I see it, the largest impact of a Mars mission will not be technological but sociological. We will have to train a quarter of a million candidates from infancy in order to get ten astronauts for the two year mission. Amongst other things, these children will learn multiple languages (because one might be more suitable than others for a given situation), practice biofeedback and metabolism control (easier than trying to design actual suspended animation), but most importantly, they will learn and develop techniques that will allow ten people to share a confined space without strangling each other purple. Those getting-along-with-each-other methods and skills will leak out into the world at large and have a profound positive impact on all corners of global society. If no other reason can justify the Mars project, that alone would pay for it many times over. (Which means, of course, I will be long gone.) ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680/40 "2013-07-30T04:31:13Z")
> [@For You](#): > > As I see it, the largest impact of a Mars mission will not be technological but sociological. We will have to train a quarter of a million candidates from infancy in order to get ten astronauts for the two year mission. Amongst other things, these children will learn multiple languages (because one might be more suitable than others for a given situation), practice biofeedback and metabolism control (easier than trying to design actual suspended animation), but most importantly, they will learn and develop techniques that will allow ten people to share a confined space without strangling each other purple. > > Those getting-along-with-each-other methods and skills will leak out into the world at large and have a profound positive impact on all corners of global society. If no other reason can justify the Mars project, that alone would pay for it many times over. Dude, stop bogarting that roach. Stranger [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-we-walk-on-mars-in-your-lifetime/664680.md?page=3)