I freezed framed the video. Presuming I wasn’t fooled by shadows and other optical delusions, it look like to me the right/left aileron was deflected upwards/downwards, as it started going down.
Speculation on my part, but it looked like control input error to me.
Perhaps an erroneously executed attempt to pull out of the inverted flight early – upon realization that the inversion was entered either too low, too slow, or both?
Pilot may simply have fouled up. It happens.
That’s all true, of course. But again, the airshow guys I know are adamant that ground level acro causes fatalities. Deaths that might be avoided a little higer up. Of course, they accept that risk. But I suspect some of them wouldn’t mind a change in the paradigm, and I’m saying as a spectator I’d be fine with that. These accidents always horrify me and I feel many of them need not happen.
I can’t see that myself, the footage is too blurry, but maybe I haven’t managed to stop it at the right frame. Anyway, it doesn’t necessarily mean input error it might just be a matter of doing the right thing too late.
An unsatisfying answer though. I’ve done plenty of aerobatics, about 2000 routines I think, and I don’t recall ever just randomly making a mistake like that. The only times something has gone wrong or something unexpected has happened has been when I’ve been trying something new. They weren’t doing something new. It was something they’ve presumably done many times before. Of course, up to the point he crashed he may well have been able to say the same thing.
I could maybe see the pressure of performing causing him to continue with that part of the routine when he just didn’t have the numbers to make it work. Unfortunately we will never know what he was thinking at the time.
The video resolution and overcast makes it hard to see, for sure. And the head of the spectator along with the plane moving out of the video frame just before the impact, make it difficult to see whether an attempt was made to reverse the control inputs occurred at all.
But will I defer to the NTSB for far more credible evidence and conclusions.
Given the abruptness of the roll, I can’t rule out mechanical failure, but I think he zigged when he meant to zag. You work on this, you concentrate on this, you obsess about this, but sometimes, you just push the wrong way. His altitude left no room for correction.
Ducati
Pilot/aerobatic pilot
Do you really though? Do you really just push the wrong way? Do you ever turn the steering wheel the wrong way in car? Have you rolled the wrong way when you’ve been flying? I think it was going wrong a long time before the final roll and that the final roll was entirely intentional, just too late. But that is just speculation.
I think I find errors of judgement much more understandable/believable than hand/eye coordination errors.
Edit: He would still have crashed if he’d rolled the other way.
For those of you who didn’t recognize the Waldo Pepper reference:
IANA accident investigator.
The nose comes up a little, just before the pilot loses control. To me, that suggests a possible stall. If the aircraft was flying close to its stall speed, that little nose-up may have been enough.
Normal stall recovery is to put the nose down. I thought the pilot might have tried to add power. Most American propellers turn clockwise, as viewed from the cockpit. If the engine is turning that way, then torque would make the airframe turn the other way. It does not appear to me that this happened. To me, it looks like the port wing lost lift.
I’m guessing that the left wing stalled. I make no guesses as to whether it was caused by pilot error, a mechanical problem, or something else. Perhaps someone will notice the NTSB report when it comes out in a year, and post the conclusions here.
The final fatal pass seems to be downwind. Could the pilot have been flying the plane from perceived ground speed instead of actual airspeed? His last turn appears to be slow and close compared the video from a previous performance. Low, slow, and inverted, not good. I hope the NTSB findings can show the cause and the prevention to this tragic accident.
My wife and I very nearly took our kids to the airshow that day. The only reason we didn’t was that our daughter doesn’t tolerate heat very well and we thought it might be uncomfortable for her. I’m sure my son wouldn’ve loved to see all the aircraft.
Wow, am I glad we skipped it now. . .I would’ve hated to see this crash happen in person, and especially for our kids to have seen it. The discussion of the cause of the crash is interesting, but I’m not going to watch the video myself. I don’t know enough about these types of planes to glean any real information from it, and I think it would just upset me to see it play out. We’re very sad for the family of the performers.
My whole family loves aviation and airshows, but the potential for an accident always sort of looms in my mind. I could definitely get behind the idea of higher altitude shows if that increases safety. The show is thrilling enough when everything goes exactly as planned and especially when no one gets hurt.
Another possibility that I wonder about is the pilot’s health. Shoulder pain might make a control input a little less precise than usual, or something else might momentarily confuse or stun a pilot. He was 64, as I recall.
A couple reports are out:
NTSB prelimary report:
http://www.wdtn.com/dpp/news/local/montgomery/ntsb-releases-air-show-crash-report
Ohio Highway patrol report considers it to be pilot error:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/02/usa-crash-ohio-idUSL2N0F81IJ20130702
Anyone know how to find the exact text of the patrol report?
I personally think either pilot’s health problems or mechanical problems are more likely.
Sounds like a stall. (Looked like a stall on the video.)
If it was indeed a stall, I’d call it pilot error. I think it’s too early for the OHP to come out with a definitive statement. Statistically, pilot error is the most likely cause. But it still could have been something else.
But the “pilot error” could have caused by dizziness, mild stroke, mild heart attack… I think this is more likely than a fuckup by a pilot whose skills are probably among the highest couple percent in the country.
I don’t care how great or skilled you are you can still make a mistake, and low-level aerobatics are notoriously unforgiving.
I have friends who fly aerobatics, I’ve spoken with airshow pilots, and the instructor who taught me how to fly tailwheels was also an aerobatics instructor. I don’t know anyone who flies aerobatics who thinks themselves immune to just plain error. Of course they do everything possible to minimize it but “oops” is a very real possibility without needing some medical issue to occur.