# Wisconsin's primary is Tuesday. I have no predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 29, 2016, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566 "2016-03-29T20:31:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/61 "2016-04-06T01:27:02Z")
With 2% reporting we have so far: Cruz…12,937… 54.2% Trump…6,851…28.7% Kasich…3,586…15.0% Sanders…7,452…55.6% Clinton…5,930…44.2% From here: > **[2016 Election: Wisconsin Primaries – The Huffington Post](https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-04-05)** > > Live-updating Wisconsin Primaries results ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/62 "2016-04-06T01:42:20Z")
With 18% reporting Cruz remains over 50%, but on the Democratic side Clinton is gaining ground. Sanders…102,991…52.4% Clinton…93,098…47.4% ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/63 "2016-04-06T01:50:08Z")
With 20% of the vote in, they’re calling it for [Pugsley](https://www.google.com/search?q=pugsley+addams&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjaw4vY8vjLAhVFvYMKHUWyAf0Q_AUIBygB&biw=1600&bih=799#imgrc=qt2cm2JgBRlQPM%3A) and Bernie. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/64 "2016-04-06T02:30:38Z")
> [@digs](#): > > where they make their Bloody Marys with beer What? I thought a Wisconsin Bloody Mary was _chased_ with a beer. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/65 "2016-04-06T02:54:55Z")
With just over half the vote in , Bernie’s up 55-44 on the Dem side. And on the GOP side, Cruz is winning in a blowout, 51-33-14 over Trump and Kasich, respectively. ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/66 "2016-04-06T02:59:58Z")
Trump is an idiot for his comment on abortion. It may cost him the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/67 "2016-04-06T03:02:31Z")
Polls showed Sanders winning by 2%, 49 to 47. He is actually winning by 12% now with almost 60% of the vote in. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/68 "2016-04-06T03:02:33Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > Trump is an idiot for his comment on abortion. It may cost him the nomination. comment_ **s** _. Multiple comments. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/69 "2016-04-06T03:07:16Z")
Christ could Sanders possibly say the word ‘momentum’ any more? I’m betting I’ll hear it a million times more before his concession speech. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/70 "2016-04-06T03:07:36Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Cruz will beat Trump and Kasich by a substantial margin, probably with a clear majority of the vote. I suspect Sanders will beat Clinton by a fairly substantial margin as well. Heh heh, looks like someone’s right. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/71 "2016-04-06T03:08:53Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Don’t bet the family farm on that. Looks like someone owes me another family farm. Like I said, Cruz _BIG_ – possibly a majority. Sanders won big, though not a majority. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/72 "2016-04-06T03:09:50Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Polls showed Sanders winning by 2%, 49 to 47. He is actually winning by 12% now with almost 60% of the vote in. No question this is a very good performance for Sanders. He won’t hit that 16% margin but close enough to keep the storyline of possibility alive. Well done for him and his team. Not sure how much longer he can keep up that story line with winning but not by quite enough to actually catch up, but clearly he can into NY. And RTF … ARG maybe now into the F range? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/73 "2016-04-06T03:11:17Z")
When all is said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sanders has a 15% net spread over Clinton. Madison is only 2/3 through counting. California has demographics similar to Wisconsin (more or less. Black population is about 6%, white is about 80%+ California has more asians and less whites but still). If demographic trends hold, maybe Sanders can win California by 10%+. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/74 "2016-04-06T03:18:24Z")
I am wondering if, now that the debate date is set (4/14), Clinton is going to start punching back. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/75 "2016-04-06T03:21:30Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > When all is said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sanders has a 15% net spread over Clinton. Madison is only 2/3 through counting. > > California has demographics similar to Wisconsin (more or less. Black population is about 6%, white is about 80%+ California has more asians and less whites but still). If demographic trends hold, maybe Sanders can win California by 10%+. California has similar demographics to Wisconsin?! Google and Wikipedia are your friends. But if you don’t have time for research, take it from someone who lived there for a decade: Wisconsin ain’t California. For one thing, the California Republic has these people called…LATINOS. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/76 "2016-04-06T03:27:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > No question this is a very good performance for Sanders. He won’t hit that 16% margin but close enough to keep the storyline of possibility alive. Well done for him and his team. > > Not sure how much longer he can keep up that story line with winning but not by quite enough to actually catch up, but clearly he can into NY. > > And RTF … ARG maybe now into the F range? As I said before, the danger here for Hillary and the entire progressive movement is that Bernie storms into the convention on a major win streak. He will win the majority of contests from here on out – bank on it. Hillary will win some big contests, but in terms of the number of individual states, Bernie will win the majority of the contests remaining. That sets up a situation in which Bernie could roll into Philadelphia and claim that a) he’s ahead in the polls and b) he’s won a majority of individual state contests and c) he’s even won a few swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. If Hillary can’t win without super delegates, then there’s the possibility of a bitter split between the energetic core progressives that are supporting Sanders (the same group that helped Obama win in 2008 and 2012) and the ‘pragmatic’ progressives who support Hillary. Now if there’s a 3rd party protest run by Trump, nothing matters – you could get Walter Mondale to run and he’d win. But if it’s Ted Cruz (likely) against Hillary Clinton, this could be a game-changer. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/77 "2016-04-06T03:34:52Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > As I said before, the danger here for Hillary and the entire progressive movement is that Bernie storms into the convention on a major win streak. He will win the majority of contests from here on out – bank on it. Hillary will win some big contests, but in terms of the number of individual states, Bernie will win the majority of the contests remaining. > > That sets up a situation in which Bernie could roll into Philadelphia and claim that a) he’s ahead in the polls and b) he’s won a majority of individual state contests and c) he’s even won a few swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. and d) Hillary still has a majority of the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/78 "2016-04-06T03:35:10Z")
\*"Sixty-three percent of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters said they were looking chiefly for a candidate who “cares about people like me” or who “is honest and trustworthy” (eight points more than average in previous contests) and Sanders won these groups by wide margins, with 70 percent and 82 percent support, respectively, exceeding his usual levels in both cases. Clinton came back with broad support among voters who cared more about experience or electability. Fewer, four in four in 10, call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated."\* > **[Democratic Primary Exit Poll Analysis](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38163893)** No problem, she’s got the [del]party hacks[/del] superdelegates in her pocket. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/79 "2016-04-06T03:36:33Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > When all is said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sanders has a 15% net spread over Clinton. Madison is only 2/3 through counting. > > California has demographics similar to Wisconsin (more or less. Black population is about 6%, white is about 80%+ California has more asians and less whites but still). If demographic trends hold, maybe Sanders can win California by 10%+. Yeah, take it from a lifelong resident, Wisconsin is nowhere near the same as California. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566/80 "2016-04-06T03:38:25Z")
oops. The demographics table I was looking at for California counted latinos and whites into one category. So yeah, it isn’t the same. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wisconsins-primary-is-tuesday-i-have-no-predictions/750566.md?page=5)