# With hindsight, when did McCain actually lose all hope of winning? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 8, 2008, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860 "2008-11-08T23:21:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2008, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/61 "2008-11-10T23:04:57Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > You must not have been paying close attention. The right wing of the Republican party set out on a mission to terrify Jews about Barack Obama with non-existent “associations” with, OMG Palestinians! and anti-Semites like Farrakhan and George Soros. They were **relentless** in their smear campaign. Fer cryin’ out loud, the Repigs in PA, **in conjunction with McCain operatives** , sent out an email[equating Obama with **HITLER**](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/pennsylvania-republicans-send-false-anti-obama-e-mail/)! And in a LOT of corners it worked like a charm. My step-mother, for one, fell for it hook, line and sinker, and no amount of debunking would sway her. If Obama was such a shoo-in among Florida Jews, there wouldn’t have been [The Great Schlep.](http://www.thegreatschlep.com/) > [@The Great Schlep](#): > > The Great Schlep aims to have Jewish grandchildren visit their grandparents in Florida, educate them about Obama, and therefore swing crucial Florida vote in his favor. Don’t have grandparents in Florida? Not Jewish? No problem! You can still become a schleper and make change happen in 2008, simply by talking to your relatives about Obama. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2008, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/62 "2008-11-10T23:07:33Z")
McCain ended up doing no better with the Jewish vote in Florida than Bush had done against Kerry. He [had been](http://www.newsweek.com/id/163348/page/1) on track to do much better. Many of these elderly Jews were scared of the Black guy with an Arab middle name and his scary associations. > [@](#): > > Though Jews account for only 5 percent of Florida voters, they turn out reliably on election day. In 2004, Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, captured about 78 percent of the Jewish vote nationally—roughly in line with recent historical trends (Ronald Reagan’s 39 percent in 1980 marked the high point for Republicans). But this year’s Democratic nominee, Sen. Barack Obama, has appeared to lag among Jews. The AJC poll showed only 57 percent of Jews nationwide supporting Obama, with 30 percent backing McCain and 13 percent undecided. “There’s no question that Obama came into this election with probably less going for him than most Democratic nominees,” says Wald. But the Palin pick “probably blunted any gains the Republicans had made.” Did it lose him Florida, let alone the election? Not by itself. Just part of the package of the campaign of the damned. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2008, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/63 "2008-11-11T15:51:37Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > I have a lot of respect for McCain and everything he has done for our country. However, the Palin/heartbeat thing that made me look seriously at Barack. From that point on, Barack just kept looking better and better. I’d be willing to bet that Palin cost JM more votes than anyone realizes. I believe this aspect can’t be overstated: A lot of voters who initially dismissed Obama as just another tax-and-spend loopy-liberal Democrat, when forced by horror at Palin to take another, deeper look at him, discovered to their pleased surprise that he’s actually a man of reasoned substance and calm intelligence who isn’t going to take the country off a far-left cliff and in fact might do a damned fine job of fixing much of what’s wrong. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2008, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/64 "2008-11-11T23:02:45Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > 364-(11+4+15+20)=314 > > Obama can lose all those plus Florida and still wins the election. I think Palin was a net negative, but I can’t see how McCain wins with Pawlenty or Romney or whoever on the ticket instead. Romney possibly would have gotten Virginia for McCain, too. That said, I don’t think that would have turned the tide either. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/65 "2008-11-12T03:04:11Z")
Palin was a bad pick, but candidates have survived bad picks (cough-Dan Quayle-cough) and gone on to win. McCain still had a fighting chance until the Wall Street meltdown and the whole broker-a-bailout fiasco. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/66 "2008-11-12T05:40:01Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Palin was a bad pick, but candidates have survived bad picks (cough-Dan Quayle-cough) and gone on to win. > > McCain still had a fighting chance until the Wall Street meltdown and the whole broker-a-bailout fiasco. Bingo. There has never been a more respected VP nominee than Lloyd Bentsen or a LESS respected VP nominee than Dan Quayle. It didn’t matter. It almost never does. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/67 "2008-11-12T05:44:04Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Palin was a bad pick, but candidates have survived bad picks (cough-Dan Quayle-cough) and gone on to win. But there’s a difference between a pick that’s looked down on, and one that’s feared; and a difference when people think there’s a good chance the Vice President could actually end up President, and when they don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/68 "2008-11-12T06:00:41Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Reagan didn’t need to have gone to Harvard, did he? Even if we want to pretend that Palin was Reagan, Obama wasn’t Carter. Federal campaign funding was mentioned upthread. I can only imagine McCain’s reaction when he saw Palin drawing in millions of dollars from conservative donors – about two days before he was supposed to take public financing. I’m guessing part of the “Obama didn’t take federal funding like he promised!” gripe in the final days was born from McCain just being pissed on a personal level about how that turned out. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/69 "2008-11-12T06:06:54Z")
His ‘Return to Washington’. ---
**Author:** ![Billdo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/billdo/32/315_2.png) [@Billdo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Billdo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/70 "2008-11-12T13:26:06Z")
I think most everyone is missing why the Palin pick was so bad. In the end, it is true, she was the clarion call to the Republican base and turned everybody else off. However, in the beginning, she was picked not really for her Republican base credentials, but rather because she was a woman who would appeal to the disaffected “PUMA” Hillary Clinton voters. McCain didn’t think of her as divisive, but rather as someone who would pick up a large number of female votes while keeping the base satisfied. This was, I believe, McCain’s biggest miscalculation, as virtually all of the angry Hillaryites came back into the Democratic fold well before the general election (as almost all of the commentators said they would). McCain tried to use Palin to capture what he saw was a new group that could put him over the top, and failed. ---
**Author:** ![UncleNito](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/7cd45c/32.png) [@UncleNito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleNito)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/71 "2008-11-12T14:50:25Z")
> [@Drain\_Bead](#): > > I’m thinking Indiana and NC. Those would be my two picks as well, OTOMH. Basically, McCain needed to lose the cities by a little less in both states. _Maybe_ Ohio as well, for the same reason. For good measure, I’ll suggest that Romney might have delivered Nevada, and Pawlenty might have put MN in play. But for the record, I don’t think Palin “cost” McCain the election, she just made it worse. ---
**Author:** ![UncleNito](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/7cd45c/32.png) [@UncleNito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleNito)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/72 "2008-11-12T15:18:52Z")
> [@Billdo](#): > > However, in the beginning, she was picked not really for her Republican base credentials, but rather because she was a woman who would appeal to the disaffected “PUMA” Hillary Clinton voters. McCain didn’t think of her as divisive, but rather as someone who would pick up a large number of female votes while keeping the base satisfied. I partially agree and partially disagree. I didn’t slog through all 352 Palin threads when she was first picked, but I thought and still believe that McCain basically had to do two thing at once, and Palin offered the most realistic hope of doing it. In order to win, he needed to shore up the GOP base **and** peel off some persuadable Dems. First, he had to convince the Evangelical conservatives that he was one of them. They weren’t going to vote for Obama, but they’ve made a lot of hay in the last 8 years by threatening to stay home. But the base wasn’t big enough to win this year, so he needed to expand it. Hence the play for the PUMA vote – this was the most likely “persuadable” demographic. This was doomed from the start, however, because it is impossible for a candidate to both support and oppose the right to an abortion. I’m not sure there was anyone who could have won significant support from both groups. But McCain had to dig so deep to find a pro-life woman that he probably ended up shrinking his base, as some GOP-leaning voters ended up switching sides. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/73 "2008-11-12T16:16:06Z")
> [@UncleNito](#): > > I partially agree and partially disagree. I didn’t slog through all 352 Palin threads when she was first picked, but I thought and still believe that McCain basically had to do two thing at once, and Palin offered the most realistic hope of doing it. > > In order to win, he needed to shore up the GOP base **and** peel off some persuadable Dems. Yup. And I think it was an impossible goal without some outside intervention (like Obama eating babies on live TV). ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2008, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/74 "2008-11-12T21:44:30Z")
I’d say it was as soon as the Palin bump went away, combined with ongoing negative ads. If he’d come up with reasonable decisive solutions to some of the nation’s problems instead of concentrating on attacks I think he would have won. If I had to pick a single moment it would probably be the Palin interview with Katie Couric. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2008, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/75 "2008-11-13T00:17:09Z")
> [@control-z](#): > > If I had to pick a single moment it would probably be the Palin interview with Katie Couric. Which I agree with but it just about makes my head explode. Is there a less likely candidate than Katie Couric to do an indepth , hardhitting, tough, substantial interview that exposes a candidate’s shortcomings? It’s like she asked Palin, “Could you name some of your favorite desserts?” and Palin freaked out: “What, do you think we don’t eat dessert up in Alaska? We’re normal people, we eat dessert like everyone else. I can’t remember the exact names, not right this second you betcha, but we eat all of 'em, whatever you serve us, we just suck it down. Some of them desserts have funny names and some others have stuff sprinkled on 'em, I tell ya that furshure and my mom used to make some of 'em, usedta serve 'em up after dinner, sometimes in the middle of the meal too, desserts are great, yup, I love 'em…” ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2008, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860/76 "2008-11-13T00:48:38Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > Is there a less likely candidate than Katie Couric to do an indepth , hardhitting, tough, substantial interview that exposes a candidate’s shortcomings? It’s Katie Couric, The Kingmaker. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/with-hindsight-when-did-mccain-actually-lose-all-hope-of-winning/471860.md?page=3)