With hindsight, when did McCain actually lose all hope of winning?

Great Debates
21

It was the Couric interview. McCain had already lost his short-lived post-convention bounce before the economic meltdown and long before McCain’s suspension stunt. It’s only instant revisionist history on the part of the righties that McCain lost his lead because of the meltdown. His lead was already gone.

Andrew Sullivan debunks that myth in this piece. but really you can go back and check any of the tracking poll histories. McCain got an average Convention bounce that lasted about a week and a half. The Palin interviews caused McCain to hemorrhage women and independents and he never got them back (the inflammatory rallies didn’t help either).

I do agree that the fake suspension never looked like anything but a transparent political stunt. The public didn’t buy it, McCain ended up looking silly, and Obama looked like the calm, cool mature one, but I think Obama would have won anyway. He led for virtually the entire race. McCain/Palin had like one good week. In retrospect, it was an asskicking all the way.

22

Palin, Palin, Palin. The economic stuff hurt him, badly, but he could have worked around that, in that many voters are forgiving of idiocy in their leaders, lack of knowledge, lack of interest, especially if you keep offering them reduced taxes. (Don’t even have to bother explaining how. Just keep hitting “My opponent will raise your taxes. I won’t,” no matter how little sense that makes.) But as Palin’s gross incompetence kept making headlines, there was no way for McCain to blame choosing her on Obama, or Bush, and when he tried putting it off on his handlers, that just made him look weak. He made this election a referendum on Sarah from Wasilla and, though it gave him a brief boost, it ended up killing his campaign.

23

Plus, I’ve heard that Palin doesn’t like schmoozing with big donors because she fears it could corrupt her. Is that true?

24

When Bush screwed up the New Orleans Hurricane effort.

25

No that I have ever heard. It is, of course, difficult to track that sort of thing for the just concluded election but in her 2006 Gubernatorial race, which is complicated by the fact that Alaska is a cheap state to run in, her top donors for the general were all PAC/Party contributions of one sort of another. In terms of Industry numbers we have

Civil Servants/Public Workers: #2
Commercial Fishing: #4
Health Professionals: #5
Lawyers and Lobbyists: #6
Real Estate: #7

http://www.followthemoney.org/database/StateGlance/candidate.phtml?c=94263

26

An incumbent’s chance of getting in is directly linked to the rate of economic growth over the previous four years.

McCain failed by trying to be the incumbent. He should have disavowed Bush as a torturer, big governmentist, and overall incompetent. McCain also wasted a lot of time preaching to the choir. After getting the Presidential nomination, he should have focused on the middle instead of keeping the right (as it’s not like they’d end up voting for Obama.) Though perhaps his funding was shakey enough that he couldn’t afford to “leave the farm” and essentially his campaign was held hostage by the party.

27

I think McCain sealed his fate pretty early on in the contest. Even if the election were closer, the inferior ground game McCain had would have ultimately lost the race for him. Bottom line was that McCain and his people did not work hard enough or smart enough. This article from the Politico talks about how McCain didn’t campaign on the weekends for several months. He didn’t take the time to frame the election, raise money, or develop a strategy in the three months he had as the only settled candidate. That speaks volumes. All the other horrendous decisions and chaos can be understood when you start to appreciate the decisions they made early on. He ran a historically bad campaign tactically and strategically, but more importantly they didn’t want to work hard enough.

28

Well, Obama clinching the nomination was the beginning of the end.

McCain vs Hillary would have been an entirely different race. Everyone now is talking about the disorganized and high-drama McCain campaign. But the Clinton campaign was also famously high-drama.

Hillary as an opponent might have made McCain look like the calm and reasonable one. And with Hillary you wouldn’t have had the disasterous Palin pick. Or maybe you would.

It’s not that I believe that Hillary would neccesarily have lost. Just that the Hillary campaign would have created all sorts of potentially exploitable weaknesses. McCain would have much better odds against Hillary than Obama.

29

Not so – Palin lost him the center (as it inevitably became known how inept and extremist she was), and that lost him the election. Appealing to the base can win you the primaries, but it can’t win you the general election. McCain’s bass-ackwards pattern of appealing to the middle during the primaries and the base during the election was doomed to failure.

30

One can argue that he had lost once he was following the Bush Presidency. Everything else just made it more of an entertaining show.

31

It was always going to be a tough election for McCain which he compounded with several big mistakes. The Palin pick though it boosted him in the short run undermined his biggest strength: the widespread perception among MSM types that he was a statesman who stood apart from the average politician. It also undermined one of the most effective criticisms of Obama: his lack of experience and helped bring McCain’s age front and center in the campaign.

The suspension of the campaign was the second big blunder and probably the nail in the coffin. After the second debate CW was that Obama would win and after that it was always going to take some kind of huge event to turn the race around. Note the lackluster support from the likes of Crist in the final stages of the race. I bet he and others would have been a lot more helpful if they believed McCain would win.
32

I have a lot of respect for McCain and everything he has done for our country. However, the Palin/heartbeat thing that made me look seriously at Barack. From that point on, Barack just kept looking better and better. I’d be willing to bet that Palin cost JM more votes than anyone realizes.

33

Thisdidn’t help either. Although it was never aired or anything, its topic was a loud drum that the Obama campaign never stopped pounding.

34

Part of the reason these things happened was because of the long primary. Obama had his network already set up and working at high pace when the general election started.

35

I’ve seen this a lot, but surely, McCain could have spent that same time doing the same thing, even without an opponent? I mean, you don’t need to know who the Dem nominee will be to start recruiting volunteers, renting office space, printing yard signs, and the like.

36

He could have done it, but without the inspiration of the primary campaign, it probably was just a harder row to hoe.

37

There just isn’t any one reason. I know it’s tempting to reduce history to simple explanations, but there are a LOT of factors here:

  1. Campaign competency. Obama’s campaign was magnificently run. McCain’s was not.

  2. The choice of Palin, who was damaging to McCain’s popularity among swing voters, versus Biden, who was basically filler, as Obama had doubtlessly planned.

  3. Bush’s unpopularity.

  4. The economic meltdown.

  5. Image. Obama is a handsome middle-aged man. McCain’s an old fogey. Image matters.

38

Up until McCain publicly conceded I was worried. I knew Obama was ahead, I was always worried until the end.

39

Sarah Palin handled herself very poorly in her interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric.

But anyone who blames her in any way for the defeat of John McCain is kidding himself.

If you’re inclined to argue the point, don’t. Let’s just play a game: let’s pretend McCain had gone a more “safe,” bland, conventional route and picked, say… Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty.

Name two states McCain lost that he would have won with either of those guys as his running mate.

(Jeopardy theme music plays…)

Sarah Palin did nothing to help the ticket, but she didn’t hurt it. VP nominees almost never do.

40

The man who would be the oldest elected president in his first term, a cancer survivour, who choses a vice president CLEARLY not prepared? Really? She didn’t hurt? Really?