The OP states average guy vs average wolf. A 200 lbs kung-fu expert is not what we are talking about. The average guy has no combat training, and virtually no combat experience (maybe a couple fights during childhood?). I would even say something simple like knowledge of the “fist down the throat” trick could not fairly be ascribed to the average man. The average guy is basically going to have to get a shot at choking the wolf to win.
The average wolf has combat experience, although in the case of comabat against larger mammals probably experience in pack hunting only (wolves may hunt small prey individually). One can reasonably assume something along the lines of slash and retreat would be applied by the wolf.
So the question is would the guy be able to choke the wolf before he bleeds to death and/or gets his throat eaten. Depends on environemnt and circumstances.
Unfortunately the OP does not state circumstances or environemnt.
Presumably we are talking combat with no preparation - random wolf meet random guy, ok, lets get it on.
If we are talking about an enclosed area small enough (small cage/cell) where the retreat portion of the wolf’s attack is negated then the average guy could pull it out just by being able to close with the wolf, definitely getting fucked up in the process, but ultimately size, brain and opposable thumbs could win.
If it is an enclosed area large enough that the wolf can take shots at the guy and keep away from those opposable thumbs then it has to go to the wolf. If an animal is fast enough that the only time you “touch” it is when it is biting off your fingers then yer screwed. I am not an animal expert but it seems reasonable to state that a wolf is in the “crazy fast” category of animals.
If we are talking out in the woods and the guy can collect a whole bunch of rocks and sit in a tree then thats not really a fight is it?
All in all I would say most cases go to the wolf unless it is forced by proximity to a stand up fight, even then it is not a for sure for the human, you get your femoral artery cut and you are not going to be grappling for long.
I would have to agree with the posters stating you can not draw on experiences with domestic dogs as a case FOR a human beating a wolf. I can pull my lab mutts jaws apart with my hands no sweat, with my friends pit bull mutt (BTW 30 lbs lighter than my dog) its like trying to pry apart a C clamp, and those are both domestic dogs (granted pit bull was bred for jaw strength, but what do you think natural slection is doing for wolves jaws?). The point being that the range of physical attributes, even among domestic dogs, is so great that being able to handle a “wolf sized” dog has very little to do with handling an actual wild wolf.
Someone had made point about a hunter gatherer type man going toe to toe with a wolf would have a better chance, I would have to agree, but at that point we are 8 layers deep in the debate about which no one has any real knowledge. I think 7 layers is the legal limit before someone says “wtf this is dumb”.