# Won't corona virus be with us forever? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 12, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341 "2020-03-12T15:32:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/41 "2020-03-15T17:00:43Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Unfortunately there’s some data to suggest already two strains. Oh, man. I _thought_ that might be the case, just from knowing that this was the case for so long with smallpox (variola major & variola minor), and no one realized for the longest time. But the death rate for the is very different-- IIRC, it was (back when the disease could easily be caught, which hasn’t been the case for a long time) close to 90% for variola major, but only about 10% for variola minor; however, immunity to one conferred immunity to the other. That’s why it was sort of mysterious for so long why a strapping, healthy young person would dies from small pox, while a child or elderly person would survive; people didn’t realize there was a deadly strain and a mild strain. I’ve been afraid to say that I thought so, though, because IANAD, and it sounded like borderline quack theory. > [@DSeid](#): > > WHY are kids so relatively unimpacted - either not getting it, or only getting such mild disease as to be undiagnosed, and apparently NOT very contagious? One speculation is that they have had enough recent and constant exposures to other human coronaviruses as to provide some level of protection (with adults having much less of that exposure and not as recently). That’s good news for me, because I work in a preschool. I very frequently get a runny nose, which give me a little bit of a cough from post-nasal drip, but it goes away in a day. Really, it it a 24-hr. thing. I used to think they were allergy attacks, but my doctor said they were probably “common cold” viruses I got from the kids. Take a decongestant and a cough pill, if it helped; wash may hands a lot, and try not to touch my face. She said if I have a fever, I should stay home, but if not, I’m OK to go in as long as I don’t feel run down. I feel fine when this happens; just annoyed that I have to blow my nose so much. I had the habit of coming home from work, immediately taking off my glasses, and rubbing my eyes and nose bridge. I broke myself of that habit, and now I get a lot fewer of the “24-hr” colds. So maybe I’ll get lucky, and have better-than-usual resistance to COVID-19. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/42 "2020-03-15T19:33:55Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > Now that’s something I haven’t even heard discussed. Do we know where ventilators are normally manufactured? Is it … China? How long does it take to manufacture a ventilator anyway? Its just an air pump. Not a particularly complicated piece of machinery. Modern sophisticated ones with bells and whistles will take longer to produce. [However its possible to make simple ones which can be, mass-produced, battery operated and “good enough”.](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/pandemic-ventilator-coronvirus-hospitals-1.5493830) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/43 "2020-03-15T21:44:34Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Its just an air pump. Not a particularly complicated piece of machinery. Modern sophisticated ones with bells and whistles will take longer to produce. [However its possible to make simple ones which can be, mass-produced, battery operated and “good enough”.](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/pandemic-ventilator-coronvirus-hospitals-1.5493830) They were talking about this on the news. Apparently there are different levels of ventilators so there are many more than the 5,000 discussed. In addition to that we would have a substantial number of BPAP machines that could be used for those who need a lesser amount of assistance breathing. That would be a simpler mask style. A BPAP is a CPAP that releaves pressure when you exhale so it’s not constantly trying to blow you up like a balloon. ---
**Author:** ![TimfromNapa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/d26b3c/32.png) [@TimfromNapa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimfromNapa)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/44 "2020-03-16T19:25:38Z")
[quote=“Northern\_Piper, post:1, topic:849341”] This is somwthing I’ve not seen addressed. Now that the corona virus has spread, won’t it always be part of the diseases that float around, just like influenza? Long-term, will containment plans be of any use? Will populations gradually develop immunity from exposure? Will it lose its virulence as time goes on? I guess what I’m concerned with is that all the discussion seems to be on preventing it’s spread. But once it has spread, and all indications are that it is, what then? Does it somehow become an endemic disease that isn’t as serious as it is right now? Or is it a fundamental change to our way of life, for the foreseeable future?[/QUOT Heck, 1918’s Spanish Flu is still with us now, albeit in mutated form. We can probably expect the same from this new H1N1 virus. It will peak and persist until a vaccine is widely distributed. It will, most likely, mutate and fade into the woodwork as more of the population becomes immune. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/45 "2020-03-17T02:56:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > In terms of your belief that children’s adaptive responses are not as strong as an adults, yes, I 100% dispute that. That’s quite a bullet to bite, since it’s already been refuted by previous cites. > [@Evolution of the immune system in humans from infancy to old age](#): > > As the individual gets older, he or she develops an expanding repertoire comprising memory T and B cells triggered by previous infections and vaccinations, but also a naive-memory repertoire shaped by exposure to the microbiome, food antigens and inhaled antigens. And this is from the section _From childhood to adulthood_, _not_ talking about the first 24 months. I’m sure at this point you’ll try to suggest that an infant’s immune system cells \*themselves \*are as numerous and active as they’ll ever be. Of course they are. But we were talking in the context of my statement “Infants rely more on their innate immune system”, and in this context the lack of antibodies from previous infections is exactly what we’re talking about. > [@DSeid](#): > > But really this is getting down a rabbit hole tangent off the OP. The issue of potential relevance to speculating what happens is the why kids seem so much less significant COVID-19 and spread it so much less relative to influenza viruses and even many other common viruses. Whatever is the cause for COVID-19 being specifically different in kids than influenza and many other viruses _may_ inform what happens over the next season or so. Right it’s a ridiculous field to fight on. You are rejecting that differences in the immune system can have a significant impact in the different incidences of disease through a person’s life, while at the same time, conceding that your hypothesis seems to be making the wrong prediction about this virus that’s the topic of this thread. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/46 "2020-03-19T07:03:29Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > They were talking about this on the news. Apparently there are different levels of ventilators so there are many more than the 5,000 discussed. In addition to that we would have a substantial number of BPAP machines that could be used for those who need a lesser amount of assistance breathing. That would be a simpler mask style. A BPAP is a CPAP that releaves pressure when you exhale so it’s not constantly trying to blow you up like a balloon. I’ve been wondering about this. How different are CPAPs from ventilators? Because we’ve got a shipload of those in every suburb. Would a CPAP not serve the same purpose of maintaining gas interchange in a COVID-19 patient? I suppose we’d have to set it to a higher pressure, but they all have the option to be set to different strengths, right? > [@TimfromNapa](#): > > . . . > Heck, 1918’s Spanish Flu is still with us now, albeit in mutated form. We can probably expect the same from this new H1N1 virus. It will peak and persist until a vaccine is widely distributed. It will, most likely, mutate and fade into the woodwork as more of the population becomes immune. This new virus is not an H1N1. It’s not even influenza. It’s a Coronavirus. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/47 "2020-03-19T07:09:39Z")
The actual name of the virus is SARS-COV-2. The disease it causes is COVID-19. But because the name “SARS” promotes panic, the WHO decided to use the disease name to refer to it. I can’t help wondering if we might have responded more appropriately if they hadn’t done that. Maybe this was a moment to just go ahead and scare the public. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/48 "2020-03-19T19:50:12Z")
My understanding of the development of immunity echoes that of **DSeid**. However, in general there is concern people don’t develop lasting immunity to coronavirus infections. You get lots of colds. That doesn’t mean your body doesn’t fight off the infection, make antibodies or that a vaccine isn’t worthwhile. People develop immunity from pertussis and tetanus vaccines that also requires booster shots. Does this apply to both children, teens and adults? Yes, for pertussis and tetanus. There are differences. Still, there were fears of a pandemic during SARS and MERS and after the initial scares I am unaware of people developing severe cases now. Part of the argument for social distancing is you want the less dangerous strains (causing cold symptoms rather than ARDS) to become contagious if any strain has to become widespread. The virus kind of has the same goal - you can’t replicate as widely if you kill your hosts. So it remains to be seen if there are waves of CoVid19 in the future or if the surviving strains are mild or rare enough it doesn’t make much difference. Or how long a vaccine would last if it can be made. We just don’t know enough to be definitive so better to be safe while minimizing other problems. I’m optimistic things will gradually improve. And I know my way around a respirator. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/49 "2020-03-19T21:07:39Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > This is simply God’s way of somewhat-gently eradicating the earth of a Trump presidency. Now don’t fuck it up, America, or the next plague will be anal-boils. And after that the \*really \*messed up shit starts happening. **Moderator Note** You appear not to have read the rules or forum description for this forum. Keep jabs like this out of factual threads. No warning issued since this is a new forum, but generally you should post as if you were in GQ. Colibri Quarantine Zone Moderator ---
**Author:** ![jonpluc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/fbc32d/32.png) [@jonpluc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jonpluc)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/50 "2020-03-19T22:28:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > WHY are kids so relatively unimpacted - either not getting it, or only getting such mild disease as to be undiagnosed, and apparently NOT very contagious? One speculation is that they have had enough recent and constant exposures to other human coronaviruses as to provide some level of protection (with adults having much less of that exposure and not as recently). So George Carlin was right. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/51 "2020-03-20T14:48:28Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > I’ve been wondering about this. How different are CPAPs from ventilators? Because we’ve got a shipload of those in every suburb. Would a CPAP not serve the same purpose of maintaining gas interchange in a COVID-19 patient? I suppose we’d have to set it to a higher pressure, but they all have the option to be set to different strengths, right? I have a BPAP that will stop pressure when you put back-pressure on it. If you’re too weak to do that then it would have to be a device that moves air in both direction. I’m assuming a ventilator does this. This would leave us with people who are somewhere in between who would benefit from a BPAP. The advantage would be a machine that forces air (and medical oxygen) into the lungs. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/52 "2020-03-20T15:20:19Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > Now that’s something I haven’t even heard discussed. Do we know where ventilators are normally manufactured? Is it … China? How long does it take to manufacture a ventilator anyway? [_Washington Post_: “ More lifesaving ventilators are available. Hospitals can’t afford them.”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/18/ventilator-shortage-hospital-icu-coronavirus/) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/53 "2020-03-20T16:13:58Z")
The rate limiter for ventilator management is more likely staff one (respiratory therapists, nurses, and physicians) than an equipment one. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/54 "2020-03-20T16:30:11Z")
That depends on the place; there is a relative shortage of ventilators in Canada if needs skyrocket. One person can program more than one ventilator, but not everyone has respiratory therapy or emergency care knowledge. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/55 "2020-03-20T17:20:38Z")
No doubt. My statement was based on [this 2015 modeling exercise](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221?rss=1). > [@](#): > > … The number of available critical care physicians was the most constraining key component at the conventional capacity level, limiting the maximum number of ventilated patients to 18,900. The number of available critical care and intermediate care beds was the constraining key component at the contingency capacity level, limiting the maximum number of ventilated patients to 52,400. At the crisis capacity level, the number of available respiratory therapists was the key constraining component, limiting the maximum number of ventilated patients to 135,000. (Table 2) This assessment showed that even if bed capacity and some staff capacity could be expanded by including general ward beds and employing the services of noncritical care physicians and nurses, U.S. ventilation capacity would still be limited by the number of trained respiratory therapists at the crisis capacity level. … [Current US supplies per the NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/business/coronavirus-ventilator-shortage.html): > [@](#): > > Hospitals in the United States have roughly 160,000 ventilators. There are a further 12,700 in the National Strategic Stockpile, a cache of medical supplies maintained by the federal government to respond to national emergencies. Maybe staffing has increased since 2015 but I doubt that was the directionality. About 172K ventilators available is significantly more than crisis level staffing (assuming full staff, none out sick or no child care) capacity of 135K. Of course more is better as it is impossible to 100% efficiently utilize the resources available. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/56 "2020-03-20T17:42:39Z")
During wartime, factories were retooled to pump out aviation parts and required supplies. Some factories have offered to do this for ventilators. At this stage, the ventilator manufacturers may be trying to balance profits and goodwill - but much of the manufacture is done in China. The Canadian government seems to be doing its best to avoid estimating how many are needed - since no one knows and it does not want to buy and store many more than necessary, if it can buy them at all with so much international demand. I’m sure the modeling exercise is relevant and valid. But I’m less sure that the scope of recent events was envisioned. It’s nice to see pharmacists and breweries pumping out hand sanitizer. But soap probably still works better. Staffing issues could become very relevant. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/57 "2020-03-20T18:03:45Z")
Of course, as you know, a sick patient would likely need IVs, medicines, fluids, intubation or setup for possible intubation, a calibrated oxygen supply, monitors which can measure vitals and oxygen, catheterization, frequent turning, a clean environment, precautions to avoid contaminating staff, frequent blood work, ECGs, central lines, nutrition, family support, bathing or disinfection, addressing comorbid conditions, etc., etc. The staff are needed. For the people likely to get ill or suffer consequences from being ill (including problems caused by treatment), the problem is a lot more difficult than a shortage of ventilators and RTs. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/58 "2020-03-21T22:15:04Z")
Those are very well written articles. I don’t know how good your local hospitals are about sharing staff and supplies. In Canada, this raises some issues. The numbers are worse if staff or supplies are needed in different locations, which is inevitable. Sure, there will be more cases in bigger cities - but I would guesstimate the efficiency of distribution to be less than 75 percent? Perhaps lower for staff than equipment? I am too unfamiliar with the American system to be able to make a reasonable guess. In Canada, some smaller hospitals are running low on masks and reusing them. The government has just bought over ten million N95s and hopefully with distribute them at full speed. One concern, of course, is initial waves and the “worried well” arrive at ERs before later waves of greater acuity. Crossing my fingers that the number of identified cases is the tip of the iceberg and that milder cases reflect a milder strain. Since too much is unknown, one must prepare for other scenarios. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/59 "2020-03-21T22:39:19Z")
Yeah I am not so sure that U.S. hospitals would do so well re-allocating resources either. A small plus to the consolidation of healthcare into large hospital systems though is a small bit better of a chance to re-allocate less inefficiently within the systems anyway. More often it isn’t the resources that get moved but the patients. Your unknown/prepare comment made me think that the OP’s comment [in this thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=892204) is right on the money for the whole pandemic! > [@](#): > > I can understand the urgent need to make sure nobody underestimates this, but I feel like knowingly presenting false information as fact to achieve this is reckless, especially from doctors. I wish she had just said “we simply don’t have enough data to know the risk, so we need to treat it as high risk until we have more data” ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/60 "2020-03-21T23:17:06Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Of course, as you know, a sick patient would likely need IVs, medicines, fluids, intubation or setup for possible intubation, a calibrated oxygen supply, monitors which can measure vitals and oxygen, catheterization, frequent turning, a clean environment, precautions to avoid contaminating staff, frequent blood work, ECGs, central lines, nutrition, family support, bathing or disinfection, addressing comorbid conditions, etc., etc. > > The staff are needed. For the people likely to get ill or suffer consequences from being ill (including problems caused by treatment), the problem is a lot more difficult than a shortage of ventilators and RTs. I think this illustrates the key factor in this crisis. Coronavirus may be with us forever but the crisis is due to the amount that’s happening right now. Our health care system doesn’t have the capacity to handle a hundred thousand people all having this disease in the same week. People who would recover if they could be treated are going to die because there won’t be enough treatment available for everyone. A few years from now, if a hundred people are sick with coronavirus every week, it’ll be just another health problem for our healthcare system to handle alongside all of the others. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341.md?page=4)