# Won't corona virus be with us forever? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 12, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341 "2020-03-12T15:32:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/61 "2020-03-22T00:15:42Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Those are very well written articles. > > I don’t know how good your local hospitals are about sharing staff and supplies. In Canada, this raises some issues. The numbers are worse if staff or supplies are needed in different locations, which is inevitable. Sure, there will be more cases in bigger cities - but I would guesstimate the efficiency of distribution to be less than 75 percent? Perhaps lower for staff than equipment? I am too unfamiliar with the American system to be able to make a reasonable guess. > > In Canada, some smaller hospitals are running low on masks and reusing them. The government has just bought over ten million N95s and hopefully with distribute them at full speed. One concern, of course, is initial waves and the “worried well” arrive at ERs before later waves of greater acuity. I had to go to Emergency at Joseph Brant Hospital in Burlington yesterday, for a matter unrelated to COVID-19. I was dreading it - I figured worried-well and everyone with a sniffle would be there. There was… no one. Well, there was exactly one person in the waiting room, and a small handful of patients in the examining rooms. Staff far outnumbered the customers. I do not in my whole life remember an ER being so underused. I was swept in, thoroughly examined, had my blood taken and tested, a full ECG, and sent on my way in an hour, including check-in, administration, the works. It was actually sort of encouraging. If there ever is a wave of patients truly needing help, it’ll take people NOT going just because they have a mild fewer and a sore throat to ensure the resources are free. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/62 "2020-03-22T02:58:48Z")
Yes. Coronavirus will be with us forever but within a couple of years, we will all be immunized and immune. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/63 "2020-03-22T03:57:13Z")
You would hope, but the more people are infected, the more likely that it splits into different strains and becomes something like seasonal flu, where you can get a vaccine for one strain but need to do that basically every year. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/64 "2020-03-22T15:41:58Z")
I’ve heard from a few people that folks are finally using the ER for emergencies. I don’t think **RickJay** ’s experience was unique. SARS has been studied for 17 years. We don’t have a vaccine for SARS or other mutating viruses. The RNA mechanisms and mutation make vaccines quite challenging. Hopefully, our best minds and new money come up with something. Perhaps things would be easier if the government had more clearly messaged: “Because so much is unknown, we are treating this seriously. We are acquiring more data to guide us. Until we can ascertain the risk, we ask everyone to follow these guidelines and will relax them as soon as it is safe to do so.” Unfortunately, a measured approach with less disruption would require much more widespread testing than is available in Canada with strict isolation of positive cases. The media would have to strike a less fearful tone. And given the situation in some places, would not be without controversy. All things considered, I think the Canadian government has tried hard to strike a balance. But it won’t be easy to back off from tough measures, will set precedents, and won’t be inexpensive. There is much to be said for maintaining normalcy and one hopes the right lessons are learned for how this can be improved. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/65 "2020-03-22T15:53:23Z")
I hope it does split into strains and the more lethal ones die out (The other ones can too). I hope a yearly vaccine shot is soon available, as with the flu. Coronavirus was discovered in the 60s and started to get well researched after SARS but clearly will be a stronger focus now. But it must have been around for tens of thousands of years before, no? I wonder if anything is different or has changed looking at a long-term viral history. Probably no one knows? ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/66 "2020-03-22T16:02:39Z")
> [@Kimera757](#): > > 1. Once most of the population has been infected, it will have a hard time spreading. People can spread the disease without symptoms, but I suspect that people who are immune to the disease will not spread it. I guess it’s like SARS, which I believe still exists but isn’t killing very many people. Not to be pessimistic, just realistic, it is not yet known if victims of the disease become immune, or if they cease to be able to spread it. > [@](#): > > 1. There will be a vaccine eventually, and there will be a huge rush to get it to people who need it the most (eg the elderly and health care workers). Unfortunately immunocompromised people get no benefit from this. Immunocompromised people benefit greatly from herd immunity. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Quatro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bc8723/32.png) [@Mr\_Quatro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Quatro)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/67 "2020-03-22T16:28:08Z")
even Christians don’t know if this virus called Covid-19 is from God, but if it is from God a whole lot of other things will happen next like earthquakes, famine, wars, nations in turmoil (these promises are in the New Testament) The Bible also says, \*\*“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.” \*\* This virus does not like heat so summer should see it’s being less, but I think we will all be back in this same predicament by December 2020 ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/68 "2020-03-22T16:42:16Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Immunocompromised people benefit greatly from herd immunity. And from vaccines, though they are slightly less effective in that population. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/69 "2020-03-22T17:57:46Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > I hope it does split into strains and the more lethal ones die out (The other ones can too). I hope a yearly vaccine shot is soon available, as with the flu. Coronavirus was discovered in the 60s and started to get well researched after SARS but clearly will be a stronger focus now. > > But it must have been around for tens of thousands of years before, no? I wonder if anything is different or has changed looking at a long-term viral history. Probably no one knows? Coronaviruses are group of viruses within the family of _Coronaviridae_. The coronaviruses responsible for the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak, the MERS outbreaks, and the recent COVID-19 outbreak are all of recent zoonotic origin; that is, they have recently been transferred from animals to humans. In fact, most pathogenic viruses and bacteria have a zoonotic origin. [CDC: Zoonotic Diseases](https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/basics/zoonotic-diseases.html). This is an essential consequence of animal husbandry and the incautious preparation and consumption of animal products. It is really difficult to track the genetic history of viruses very far because as they are not living organisms they do not directly transfer or combine genes from one another, and essentially exist due to lateral gene transfer from living organisms. However, in the pre-civilization era although zoonosis could and did occur, serious pathogens simply couldn’t travel very far because if they had detrimental effects on hunter-gatherer populations they would simply disable or kill infected groups. The rise of epidemic disease is an artifact of civilization, e.g. living in dense groupings, wide travel and commerce, industrial food processing and distribution, living in enclosed spaces with pathogen-friendly surfaces, et cetera. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/70 "2020-03-22T18:13:22Z")
I’m aware that many betacoronoviridae show so much genetic similarity to animal diseases that their zoonotic origin is relatively clear. But no one was looking at coronaviruses for so long that it would be interesting to know more about their history. As you say, we may not know enough to do that now and it may be impossible. I’ll buy that a severe disease affecting an isolated hunter-gatherer group might well die out after exhausting its hosts. But civilization in the sense of dense populations is at least several thousand years old; the network effects of someone being able to travel almost anywhere and return are perhaps fifty years old. That speaks to contagion, and maybe to zoonosis too. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/71 "2020-03-22T18:40:00Z")
[_VICE News_: “The Scientific Detectives Tracing Coronavirus](https://youtu.be/fi2xlIajRUk) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/72 "2020-03-22T21:06:09Z")
I can’t say I know much about molecular clock analysis. But I’ve read some articles from virology journals on Google Scholar and it’s fascinating they can trace certain zoonotic crosses back to 1890 and before. Who woulda thought? ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2020, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/73 "2020-03-23T16:22:39Z")
Because Australia has been affected (to a degree similar to Canada), and is in summer, it seems at this stage the effects of heat are smaller than the pressure to spread. Flu goes down in the summer. Coronavirus probably won’t go down too much, but I hope it does. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2020, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341/74 "2020-03-23T16:58:33Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Not to be pessimistic, just realistic, it is not yet known if victims of the disease become immune, or if they cease to be able to spread it. > Immunocompromised people benefit greatly from herd immunity. Has there ever been a virus to which humans do not develop a temporary immunity, at least? Temporary being a minimum of 6 months. If there are viruses to which humans do not develop immunity, are any of those closely related to corona viruses? Would the fact that, by and large, this thing isn’t reinfecting people in China suggest that immunity is attained, possibly just temporarily? (I know there are some reports of at least 1 reinfection, but my understanding is that is not known if that was a reinfection.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wont-corona-virus-be-with-us-forever/849341.md?page=3)