# World Cup 2022 - discussion, predictions, and thoughts **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-soccer-fifa\ **Created:** [November 6, 2022, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476 "2022-11-06T20:37:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/21 "2022-11-12T01:01:58Z")
Two, in this group it should be England and one of the other 3, probably the US, but: “This is football and anything can happen ™” ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/22 "2022-11-12T03:09:10Z")
If McKennie comes to play, the US squad is a different animal. And even though it’s an obvious risk to install a central defender who hasn’t played for the national team in over a year, I like the addition of Tim Ream. He’s been solid for surprising Fulham and we were just so soft at that position (even though I’ve been largely pleased with Zimmerman’s play during qualifying). It seems like a wide open cup to me. Maybe a rugged team with a boatload of talented and combative midfielders like Portugal could find a way to grind through. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/23 "2022-11-12T03:23:03Z")
Any prominent athletes boycotting this thing? ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/24 "2022-11-12T03:40:12Z")
Not a single one, I don’t think. I mean, I can think of a retired premier athlete (Philipp Lahm) saying he won’t go, but nobody active. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/25 "2022-11-12T04:33:02Z")
Tony Kroos? The only problem with Ream is that he and Zimmerman are both slow and can be a liability playing a high line, especially since Dest and McKennie are not disciplined. I can see the CBs really getting caught on the counter. Now, the alternative is apparently Long, who is terrible, so I’ll take that chance. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/26 "2022-11-12T04:46:43Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Tony Kroos? He retired from international matches last year. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/27 "2022-11-12T04:50:56Z")
Complete coincidence. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/28 "2022-11-15T00:32:03Z")
[If you must go to Qatar for the World, Cup, this expert advises you to take a burner phone for your own protection.](https://www.theregister.com/2022/11/11/world_cup_security/) ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/29 "2022-11-17T00:27:13Z")
538 has their [predictions page](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/) up. It’s a pretty nice interface, and their probabilities will be updating throughout the tournament, even during individual games as they progress. They give Canada better chances than I would’ve expected. 25% to beat Belgium, 26% to draw; 27% to beat Croatia and 29% to draw. They give Canada 37% to get out of the group, where I would’ve expected maybe 20 to 25%. Then only 11% of making the QF - I’m assuming because they’d likely get Germany or Spain in the round of 16. The “how this works” is interesting. Canada gets a much higher “team match” rating than “roster” rating, which fits with the narrative about Herdman getting lots out of them and the team being more than the sum of their parts. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/30 "2022-11-17T00:45:31Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > 538 has their [predictions page](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/) up. It’s a pretty nice interface, and their probabilities will be updating throughout the tournament, even during individual games as they progress. Thanks. I guess I won’t get my hopes up for the US or Wales all too high. Or Korea for that matter, who I hoped had at least somewhat of a shot. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/31 "2022-11-17T00:48:37Z")
I’m planning to subscribe to Peacock this weekend to get the World Cup Just one month of subscription. Would there be any difference in the service between the $5 and the $10? Will $10 offer no ads even on the World Cup? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/32 "2022-11-17T00:50:15Z")
53% and 36% to advance are better than I would have thought for the US and South Korea. Man groups B and especially F are balanced. England with the best roster in the world? Huh. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/33 "2022-11-17T02:46:57Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > Two, in this group it should be England and one of the other 3, probably the US, but: “This is football and anything can happen ™” I think England and Wales move on. I’m a fan of the USMNT and look forward to their matches but I don’t think they’ll escape the group stage. I’m not sure I’ll do any betting but if I do—I’ll bet many dollars that the USA will not make it to the knock-out rounds. As always, the US has some fast players and has some strong players but that’s about it. As usual, the Americans are—almost without exception—unable to trap any ball unless it’s the slowest, most basic pass creeping along the ground. Their passing is similarly bad and uninspired (as always). Now Pulisic is a decent passer and can trap as well as the average 2nd Division journeyman, (which rates as stellar compared to the average American professional). He’s capable of scoring against very strong defenses but probably only when he has the support of Premier League-level service. So… go team. Make me wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/34 "2022-11-17T03:09:51Z")
Pulisic isn’t the most technical or best passer on the team. All of Pulisic, Reyna, Musah, Dest, and Aaronson are above average technically. “2nd Division journeyman” is just laughable. Of the likely starters that fits Long, Turner, Zimmerman and Ferreira. The rest are all comfortably within the skill level you’d expect in a first division squad. The issue with this team has been tactics / staying focused (they’re the youngest team at the WC I think). _eta_ And health. The top 2 choices at LCB are missing the WC due to injury and Reyna and Pulisic have missed a lot of time with injuries. Out of curiosity, there are the # of players that play in a top 5 league in group B: England - 26 Iran - 2 (remainder mostly domestic or 2nd tier European leagues) USA - 13 (remainder mostly MLS) Wales - 12 (remainder 2-4th division in England) ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/35 "2022-11-17T05:00:26Z")
Here are the Opta predictions for the sixteen most likely winners: [![](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/800/cpsprodpb/15AEE/production/_127641888_2613a227-bb88-4536-b684-72fc276467fe.jpg) ](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/onesport/cps/800/cpsprodpb/15AEE/production/_127641888_2613a227-bb88-4536-b684-72fc276467fe.jpg) USA are just off the table, with a 0.7% predicted chance of becoming champions. > **[Who will win the World Cup? The computer says...](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63489985)** > > Do you want to know who is being predicted to win the 2022 World Cup? Opta uses artificial intelligence and the latest data to assess each country's chances. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/36 "2022-11-17T12:31:26Z")
This looks far more realistic than the 538 ratings, I mean, 538 puts Portugal with the same probabilities than Argentina to win. On the other hand my gut instinct is awfully conservative and weighs the “history” of a team a lot, in detriment of their actual current state, so who knows may be 538 is right. ---
**Author:** ![SanVito](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sanvito/32/2805_2.png) [@SanVito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanVito)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/37 "2022-11-17T12:55:34Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I really am screwed. How many teams go from group play to final round? Just one? I am cheering for England, Wales, and the US. A painful opening round for sure. Hopefully two - I’m English, and my wife is Welsh 😬 ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/38 "2022-11-17T12:58:40Z")
> [@SanVito](#): > > Hopefully two - I’m English, and my wife is Welsh 😬 My mother is English and her mother was Welsh. Good luck! ---
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2022, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/39 "2022-11-17T23:28:29Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I’m not sure I’ll do any betting but if I do—I’ll bet many dollars that the USA will not make it to the knock-out rounds. As always, the US has some fast players and has some strong players but that’s about it. As usual, the Americans are—almost without exception—unable to trap any ball unless it’s the slowest, most basic pass creeping along the ground. Their passing is similarly bad and uninspired (as always). How did you wind up in 1994? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2022, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476/40 "2022-11-18T02:11:19Z")
Sadio Mane out of the tournament, that’s too bad, he’s phenomenal and one of the 10 best players of the last ~5 years. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-cup-2022-discussion-predictions-and-thoughts/974476.md?page=3)