# World population declining? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 30, 2021, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197 "2021-05-30T00:43:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2021, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/41 "2021-05-31T16:59:19Z")
I take a little issue with the belief that SS will be “bankrupt” in 2035. Yes, _without changes,_ the current $2.9 trillion surplus will be gone. But so will a significant portion of the generation currently causing the most stress on the system. A few tweaks – increasing SS tax rates, shifting budgets from other sectors, etc – should be enough to get the country through another decade of generational imbalance until the system once more works its way back into the black. It will be interesting to see how elderly conservative retirees confront the question of “more F35s” vs “benefits continuing at their current levels.” I also think that the coming dominant generations in U.S. politics will want to have a healthy retirement system for themselves as well. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2021, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/42 "2021-05-31T17:01:44Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Stale jokes (at the expense of conservatives and Covid) aside, Millennials and Zoomers will be dealing with this issue in the U.S. the most in the important decades to come, because (1) Boomers cease to be a numerical force in 20 years, (2) Gen X is significantly smaller and (3) the generation following Z will also be smaller in numbers. Sorry to be the annoying fact checker but Gen X [isn’t](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/07/30/now-more-than-half-of-americans-are-millennials-or-younger/) _all_ that much smaller, at least per Brookings. About the same as Z. Share of population: Boomers 21.8%; Gen X 19.9%; Millennials 22%; Gen Z 20.3%. “Geriatric Millennial” meme aside the reality is that in 20 years many Boomers will be dead, the most of the Gen X cohort will be over 67, and the that group now being teased as “Geriatric Millennials” will be not too far behind. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2021, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/43 "2021-05-31T18:51:10Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > But so will a significant portion of the generation currently causing the most stress on the system. Actually, the Baby Boomers have affected the Social Security system less than the Silent Generation and maybe the Greatest Generation and maybe even the Lost Generation (the years of each of which you can see below): > **[Turns out it's not baby boomers who have taken the most from Social Security](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/its-not-baby-boomers-who-have-taken-the-most-from-social-security.html)** > > New research from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College finds that it was the earliest beneficiaries who received more money than they paid into Social Security. And policy changes made in the 1930s helped set the program up for the... > **[Generation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation)** > > A generation refers to all of the people born and living at about the same time, regarded collectively. It can also be described as, "the average period, generally considered to be about 20–⁠30 years, during which children are born and grow up, become adults, and begin to have children." In kinship terminology, it is a structural term designating the parent-child relationship. It is known as biogenesis, reproduction, or procreation in the biological sciences. > Generation is also often used syno... The overall problem is people not calculating how long the average lifespan would be in the future. A good rule of thumb is that the average lifespan increases by two months every year. When calculating how much people on Social Security should receive, how much they should pay in, and when they should be able to begin receiving it, that rule should be followed. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/44 "2021-12-22T17:41:52Z")
Pardon the bump after seven months but latest estimates show the US population increasing by less than 400,000 the past year, or about a .13% increase. Interesting notes: it was the first time since 1937 that the population increase year to year was less than one million. And, according to the Census Bureau, it was the first time immigration numbers (244,000) were higher than natural increase, defined as births minus deaths (148,000). Things get really interesting on many fronts when the annual natural increase numbers turn negative. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/45 "2021-12-22T17:46:40Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Things get really interesting on many fronts when the annual natural increase numbers turn negative. I take it that by “interesting” you mean it in the “may you live in interesting times” sense of the word? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/46 "2021-12-22T18:04:31Z")
Cite for ya: > **[US population growth at lowest rate in pandemic's 1st year](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-immigration-health-us-census-bureau-covid-19-pandemic-d224035ee70e805f1e42da6c1a9c079c)** > > U.S. population growth dipped to its lowest rate since the nation’s founding during the first year of the pandemic as the coronavirus curtailed immigration, delayed pregnancies and killed hundreds of thousands of U.S. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/47 "2021-12-22T18:14:39Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > > [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > > > Things get really interesting on many fronts when the annual natural increase numbers turn negative. > > I take it that by “interesting” you mean it in the “may you live in interesting times” sense of the word? Indeed. Because immigration remains a huge and hotly contested issue in this country and it will become even more so as the country’s population and demographic situations begin to change. One thing that maybe only I’m thinking about: there is a huge pushback against opening the gates at our southern border because of language and cultural “differences.” What happens when we begin to have a greater need for higher levels of immigration and the best source is sub-Saharan Africa? Some minds in the midlands are really gonna asplode. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/48 "2021-12-22T18:19:30Z")
Would it help if the sub-Saharan African immigrants spoke English as their first or second language? As said, the US _needs_ immigrants. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/49 "2021-12-22T18:26:17Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > One thing that maybe only I’m thinking about: there is a huge pushback against opening the gates at our southern border because of language and cultural “differences.” What happens when we begin to have a greater need for higher levels of immigration and the best source is sub-Saharan Africa? Some minds in the midlands are really gonna asplode. > [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > Would it help if the sub-Saharan African immigrants spoke English as their first or second language? As said, the US _needs_ immigrants. Maybe. On the other hand, if we get to that point, Europe probably has dibs on those immigrants due to their closer physical proximity. I hadn’t paid it much thought, but at first glance there does seem to be relatively limited populations in the Western Hemisphere that are under pressure to migrate in large numbers. There’s the Central American countries (Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, etc.), Venezuela, and Haiti off the top of my head. Even the “traditional” idea of Mexicans coming to the US seems to no longer be the case in terms of large numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/50 "2021-12-22T20:37:04Z")
Nigeria is currently on pace to reach a population of 400 million or more by the end of the century. And while they’re the biggest in their neighborhood, they’re not the only growing nation. That region may be able to re-supply western Europe and the US both. But regardless of whether those immigrants are English speakers or not, there will be racial and cultural conflicts. It’s interesting that little discussion has taken place in this thread about how to increase domestic birth rates. I haven’t addressed it personally because I’m not convinced that we should want to. But it’s such a new issue that I’m open to any thoughts anybody might have. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/51 "2021-12-22T20:54:27Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > It’s interesting that little discussion has taken place in this thread about how to increase domestic birth rates. I haven’t addressed it personally because I’m not convinced that we should want to. But it’s such a new issue that I’m open to any thoughts anybody might have. There’s a number of factors as to why Americans in their 20s and 30s are less likely to be having children, including: - The high expense of child-rearing, and childcare - Pessimism about the economy and the political situation in the country - Pessimism about climate change, and a lack of willingness to bring children into that world - Lack of a good partner - A desire to focus on one’s career, and other things in one’s life - And, over the past two years, of course, immediate-term concerns about COVID-19 Tactics like making childcare more affordable for working parents might well help, but our Federal government appears to currently be unable to address this legislatively. And, addressing pessimism about the future of the country and the planet are much harder. > **[Millennials Were Already Putting Off Having Children. Then the Pandemic Hit.](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trend-setters/millennials-economy-children-poll)** > > Nearly 1 in 5 Millennials who don’t have children said they would delay further because of the pandemic, and 15% said they are less interested in having children at all because of COVID-19. > **[How the 21st century economy convinced millennial women that having kids...](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-birth-fertility-rate-decline-having-baby-millennials-kids-cost-2021-6)** > > As the US birth rate declines, millennial women are realizing having kids comes at a cost. There's also a lot more to life in the post-2008 economy. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/52 "2021-12-22T20:56:37Z")
> [@Bootb](#): > > Just to be accurate, every single one of those dire predictions (at least that I’m aware of) was based on Malthusian thinking. > > The biggest downside of a shrinking population is that there are fewer people to dream up solutions to various problems. Human ingenuity is the biggest, strongest, most important natural resource that humanity has. > > Oddly enough, however, this is very seldom mentioned. In all fairness, the ration of geniuses dreaming up solutions to various problems is overshadowed by the much larger number of morons and A-holes who cause the problems in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/53 "2021-12-22T21:10:33Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > What do you think? Demographic collapse is going to be a serious issue down the road. China is only one of the countries where this will be a huge issue. I get that people who have been told for decades about the population bomb and scared by the growing population, as well as those concerned with human-caused climate change would be excited by the news (though this isn’t really news) that instead of an ever-expanding population we are looking at a pretty large overall population reduction in the next 100 years, but it’s something we’ll definitely be dealing with going forward. On the plus side, reducing the global population should further reduce CO2 emissions, in theory at least, as well as other resource utilization… sometime decades from now (see final paragraph). But in cases like China, you are going to see a serious rollback in their economy, as they will have a fairly large elderly population being supported by a much, much smaller young population. That is pretty much a recipe for economic woes (not that this is the only thing). Other countries, including much of Europe, are going to also have major issues. Russia is already in a population decline, though a lot of this is people leaving. Countries with healthy immigration are going to do fairly well…one of the things that keep the US fairly balanced is we allow so many to (legally) immigrate each year. It’s something I think a lot of countries are going to need to seriously look at if they want to keep some balance. The big thing here is that this is all years, decades really, down the road, though as noted some countries are already starting to feel the pinch. The population still hasn’t peaked, just due to how demographics work. China, for instance, won’t really be having issues for several decades. So, this isn’t any sort of quick fix for climate change or whatever another scarce resource is out there…it’s more like a slow-motion train wreck that you see coming from miles away, or like a glacier slowly moving towards your settlement. The fire burning your settlement down is probably more of an immediate threat than the glacier that will roll over it in 100 years. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/54 "2021-12-22T21:18:13Z")
I’d be very concerned about a drop in world population meaning that there’ll be fewer young working drones to support my shamefully high benefits during retirement. But I’ll be long dead before that happens.\* \*unless the Bill Gates/Big Pharma/Vaccine Depopulation Conspiracy picks up steam and everyone starts dropping like flies. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/55 "2021-12-22T22:27:34Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > There’s a number of factors as to why Americans in their 20s and 30s are less likely to be having children, including: > > - The high expense of child-rearing, and childcare > - Pessimism about the economy and the political situation in the country > - Pessimism about climate change, and a lack of willingness to bring children into that world > - Lack of a good partner > - A desire to focus on one’s career, and other things in one’s life > - And, over the past two years, of course, immediate-term concerns about COVID-19 How about the obvious one that “it sucks”? I know everyone loves their kids and all. But children are expensive, time consuming, demanding, and unpredictable. This probably falls under “focus on career / other things”, but the last thing I wanted in my 20s and 30s was children. I much rather spent my time hanging out with friends, going out to dinner with my wife/girlfriend, enjoying various hobbies/activities, working on my career, and just basically enjoy being an adult with few real obligations. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/56 "2021-12-22T23:27:55Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Demographic collapse is going to be a serious issue down the road. China is only one of the countries where this will be a huge issue. The article from The New York Times that I linked to in the OP mentioned South Korea as having the lowest birthrate (at less than one child per woman) in the developed world. (BTW, [here](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuonUktbfqohkTVUZASbKWsIjolqJgf_Fybh5nnjmMSycVTdFyaEOA5KB_UTMY6UlZ8c2237TYu59B4IVZa44yP5DbQsqQhO0o5CAldNbcnlr8oy4BSY4hcyQGO0yr2KvPzHjdKJ1zrez5U-Pama8UKTPwDZ2clYe1JhmfFyo3XAalOySQqMuhI4Ijbp2DYt6RDwDeCGKo_Lobh5_M96CZR3dgRIkD6AbAXqA2I7BtM9TNVlaGlnET3hg4G4j6d86O9kfP6n3KxNIa9Oiwkgoj5xy0NNKKHDKuWQh&smid=url-share) is a gift link to the same NYT article, except this one should be accessible by anyone.) ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2021, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/57 "2021-12-22T23:59:49Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > The amount of increase in the world population is less each year. So you’re saying that the 2rd derivative of population w.r.t. time is declining, which is equivalent to saying that the 3th derivative is now negative? ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2021, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/58 "2021-12-23T00:10:32Z")
The amount of increase is the first derivative, which is now declining, so the second derivative is negative, I think (the third derivative - the amount of jerks, seems to be still increasing 🙂 ) ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2022, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/59 "2022-01-17T15:17:22Z")
China just reported a birth rate of .75 for 2021, the second year in a row it has been less than 1. Real birth numbers decreased from 12 million to 10 million. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2022, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/60 "2022-01-17T17:05:56Z")
South Korea and Japan are even lower. (.69 and .72 respectively) So it seems the problem is a broader one for east asian culture / society. (and of course a problem seen across the developed world, but currently more acute in East Asia). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197.md?page=4)