# World population declining? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 30, 2021, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197 "2021-05-30T00:43:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2023, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/121 "2023-01-21T02:59:33Z")
The demographics are clear. When countries become more prosperous and the standards of living rise, women have fewer children. More survive to adulthood. Fewer are needed to work the fields when agriculture is more efficient. So why the angst? There is nothing inherently great about an ever increasing population and much to be said about providing a better quality of life to future generations. People are adaptable and ingenious and we will handle big numbers of people. There is no reason to be upset if these big numbers are slightly smaller. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2023, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/122 "2023-01-21T03:06:33Z")
> [@Tibby](#): > > There are now more people with smart phones in Philadelphia in 2023 (population ~1.6 million), than there were in 1950 (population ~2 million). Is depopulation the _cause_ of more smartphones? No, but it will take a lot of highly educated people to figure out how to produce cars and phones without cobalt and/or extract cobalt from the earth in a more humane manner. Are there environmental negatives to higher population? Yes, but there are also positives, and ignoring that is why Malthusians keep on being mistaken. It may be that, as at least one poster suggested earlier in the thread, stable population is best. What has been clear for a long time is that prosperous nations with reproductive freedom (something I favor) tend towards below-replacement fertility. So long as it seems we are going that way, I intend to remain pro-natalist. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2023, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/123 "2023-01-21T22:48:03Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > No, but it will take a lot of highly educated people to figure out how to produce cars and phones without cobalt and/or extract cobalt from the earth EVs with LFP cathodes were already like a third of sales last year. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2023, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/124 "2023-01-22T23:11:54Z")
> [@mbh](#): > > You want an electric car? Fine. The batteries require rare earth elements, which are strip-mined in third-world countries using child labor. Actually, this is entirely incorrect. Batteries do not use rare earth elements, they use common elements. The primary actual rare earth element that appears in electric vehicles is Nd, which is good for making really powerful magnets that make electric motors very efficient, thus requiring less battery to get farther.        Unlike battery stuff, the magnets in motors do not really wear out and the metal is highly recoverable/reusable, meaning misch metal mining is less of an issue than you make it out to be. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2023, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/125 "2023-01-23T02:29:15Z")
If global population declines to 1-2 billion I feel pretty confident that those survivors will adapt and possibly even thrive with the cultural, technological and environmental changes that result. But the transitional decades should worry those destined to experience them. The demographic pressures will be difficult to manage and the potential for panic at the highest levels of governance immense. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/126 "2023-01-24T03:01:05Z")
> **[Japan PM says country on the brink over falling birth rate](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64373950)** > > Fumio Kishida says Japan is on the verge of not being able to function. > [@](#): > > He said that he eventually wants the government to double its spending on child-related programmes. A new government agency to focus on the issue would be set up in April, he added. > > However, Japanese governments have tried to promote similar strategies before, without success. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/127 "2023-01-24T09:37:25Z")
It comes down to people don’t want to produce more biological children of their own, and their society won’t tolerate the immigration of large numbers of people who aren’t them. It’s an extreme example of nativism, but the sentiment exists across Europe and the US among a non-trivial percentage of the population. In post-industrial society there are significant drawbacks to having and raising children. Adding some incentives on top of that doesn’t change the underlying problems and issues. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/128 "2023-01-24T13:55:19Z")
I would think that countries, such as the US and Canada, which are multicultural and historically open to new immigrants will do better in the time of population decline than will countries that are not (China? Korea? Japan?). In particular the populations of India and Nigeria (as I remember the NYT article in the OP said that Nigeria’s population is expected to exceed a billion) are growing, so if a country is willing to accept brown and black people, they will have a net influx. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/129 "2023-01-24T14:22:17Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > as I remember the NYT article in the OP said that Nigeria’s population is expected to exceed a billion The article is paywalled, but that’s a little dubious to me - predictions I’ve seen top out at 800 million. And that’s in 80 years. Which is prediction with a large degree of uncertainty to it. Also note that Nigeria isn’t _that_ massive a source of people - lots of people migrate _to_ it as well, it has a net migration rate of around only -0.2/1000. That’s pretty neutral. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/130 "2023-01-24T14:31:02Z")
FYI, [here](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html?unlocked_article_code=SuD8tfhNeB-jJ7t4xfcZX0x1do21B7qWMPlUzaYe72re0k9xm0rlsa9MLvIRcNBkwgL6hj2UevNyPaiHXkIIHYC1xiO3zDGblLhQWi3mWV9ckqa6Q9su7sqXi4mWDNv7gFoqr53CvPZSaC8NQKRfvU2m0f_vyVYkP5zXDXtwxqYWgP0iq55jG-IY2whpNkQr7SNK3yi7w-1wQ1bsBwyiO8IAxnnYYbiPwpeANEvRsRyMIzt39f3o4XTliABTNeNTdAru0EcrCyKsGG7TrPNUY0AwBQ3wAGAPVIMO191tN2-95e31szYRPt_YVo8aNW855kSTeIcODx9NudoGV12CY34&smid=share-url) is a gift link to the article in the OP. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/131 "2023-01-24T14:35:42Z")
Thanks! I think you have a slight misunderstanding. When the article says “By the end of the century, Nigeria could surpass China in population” this is both because Nigeria’s population will grow _and_ because China’s will decline. Not that Nigeria will grow to China’s _current_ billion+ population. This article has a nice chart illustrating the demographic crossover: > **[Nigeria to overtake China as the second most populous country in the world by...](https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/nigeria-to-overtake-china-as-the-second-most-populous-country-in-the-world-by-2100/tvrhcng)** > > Read the latest news across entertainment, sports, business and more ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/132 "2023-01-24T14:43:06Z")
Sorry, but it’s been a while since I read the original article. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/133 "2023-01-24T16:43:13Z")
Japan is the country we armchair demographers are watching the closest to see how a wealthy industrial nation manages de-population. I don’t know how they’ll manage, however, without a monumental change in immigration values. It’s like what someone recently said about Hungary: Orban would rather there be NO Hungary than a Hungary with a large number of non-Hungarians. I think we’re about 25 years away from the US having immigrant recruiting stations set up in Lagos. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/134 "2023-01-24T16:58:09Z")
Doesn’t South Korea have it even worse than Japan? ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/135 "2023-01-24T17:05:45Z")
Japan’s population has been decreasing since 2014, if not longer. South Korea’s hasn’t started decreasing yet, although will soon. At least that’s the UN population estimates, which tend to be on the high side. Other estimates may have different numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/136 "2023-01-24T17:06:17Z")
I don’t think things are worse yet in SK but they are following the trendlines very closely and with many of the same cultural complications. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/137 "2023-01-24T17:26:30Z")
I saw something that said that Korea’s fertility rate is only 0.8 compared to the 2.1 rate needed for a stable population. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/138 "2023-01-24T17:52:45Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Everything in my entire life (I was born in 1956, three billion by then) has solidified my belief that humans are the worst thing to happen to this planet’s biome since the Meteor. The fewer there are, the better. The contradiction in this opinion is that, no one cares whether there are humans or not except humans (aside from, say, individual pets missing their owners if they were gone). Thus, if there were fewer humans or none at all on the planet, none of the animals would be cognizant of this fact or aware of any improvement. IOW, your negativity toward humans is, ultimately, just a human value, not one that can transcend humanity and retain any meaning. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/139 "2023-01-24T19:10:49Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > What do you think? I think we should be thinking “quality” and not “quantity” when you take into account the fact that humans world wide are living far longer than at any other time in their disease ridden and war plagued history. If you look at the statistics, it is the first world countries with the highest standard of living that are having significantly fewer children than their poorer counterparts, and their quality of living is much better. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2023, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197/140 "2023-01-24T19:11:07Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The contradiction in this opinion is that, no one cares whether there are humans or not except humans (aside from, say, individual pets missing their owners if they were gone). Thus, if there were fewer humans or none at all on the planet, none of the animals would be cognizant of this fact or aware of any improvement. > > IOW, your negativity toward humans is, ultimately, just a human value, not one that can transcend humanity and retain any meaning. You have no way of knowing whether “anyone would notice or care” so your definitive statement really isn’t one. You are, it appears to me, one of the many reductionist thinkers who cannot imagine that anything in the world is sentient the way we are, is self aware in any way, or is aware of the environment changing, etc. I am not negative toward humans per se; if they didn’t degrade or destroy everything they touch, I’d feel quite positively toward them. Why would I imagine I transcend human values? How could I even do so? Where would I stand to look? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/world-population-declining/943197.md?page=8)