While agreeing that Sharon’s demise changes the equation, I’ll believe this when I see it.
But let’s suppose that the Israelis do act as you suggest – yank their settlers out, and disengage. The question then is, why the hell didn’t they do this 25 years ago, before they had filled up the West Bank with settlements? This gets to my larger point here, which is that if you’re going to be eventually forced by circumstances to do something – like evacuate the West Bank – why don’t you use some prognostication skills to not go down that particular road in the first place? Where’s the mystery in all this? The Israelis had to know that putting the settlers in was pouring gasoline on the flames. They had to know that the Palestinians, poor as they were, had an astronomical birthrate. They had to know that the Palestinians would resist, making things hot (and expensive) for the settlers.
This is what I’m saying here – the Israelis don’t have a good track record on realism. They let ideology lead them astray.
But who knows – maybe Olmert will be the man history remembers – the man who brought Israel the one-nation solution. Because remember that both Gorbachev and De Klerk, like Olmert, were rightist apparatchiks who came up through the ranks.

