# Would a pro-gay marriage stance cost Obama the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 8, 2012, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313 "2012-05-08T19:22:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Eve](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/9e8a1a/32.png) [@Eve](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eve)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/21 "2012-05-09T19:16:18Z")
_Wow!_ Who knew Obama read The Straight Dope! ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/22 "2012-05-09T19:36:37Z")
> [@CJJ](#): > > I have little evidence to support this other than my gut feeling there is a political opportunity here, but I suspect Obama will use this interview to publically support gay marriage; his evolution ends today. > > It’s a guess, I agree, but after looking at some insider scuttlebutt on the web, nationwide polling on gay marriage–particularly support for it among independents and young voters–and the chance to own the news cycle for the next week or so (Romney will be immediately asked the same question, and I doubt he has an answer that will appease his base), I think Obama has weighed the calculus and decided the votes this will cost him in swing states are worth it. I respect **Exapno’s** political analysis, but I still think Obama has good reasons to make this move. Wow good call. When I first read your post I was skeptical but it actually kind of convinced me and it turns out you were right. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/23 "2012-05-09T19:39:13Z")
Nice call, **CJJ** \* ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/24 "2012-05-09T19:43:59Z")
> [@ladyfoxfyre](#): > > [Obama Backs Gay Marriage | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/09/obama-gay-marriage_n_1503245.html?1336589752&ncid=edlinkusaolp00000009) Huh. I guess that means that the election is over and Obama feels he literally cannot lose. Probably because of the 294-170 lead that page gives him in electoral votes. Can we please, please, please just take this as the sign it is and not go through the next six months of idiocy and tedium? ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/25 "2012-05-09T19:44:57Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > If Obama was going to do something like this, he should have done in back in 2009. Yes, he would have taken a lot of heat over it but that would have faded with time. Doing it now would make it a fresh issue right before an election. > > In addition, having waited three years shows Obama isn’t really all that concerned about gay marriage. If he was, he would have done something about it before now. If he had made it a major issue right at the start, his opponents might have disagreed with his stance but he would have at least gotten some credit for making a principled stand. Color me surprised if he takes any significant heat over this position, except by those who already despise him. ---
**Author:** ![PandaBear77](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@PandaBear77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PandaBear77)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/26 "2012-05-09T19:46:07Z")
SSM is the least of Obama’s worries as far as getting re-elected goes. That said his announcement today probably didn’t do much for him bringing in the Muslim vote. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/27 "2012-05-09T19:48:44Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Huh. I guess that means that the election is over and Obama feels he literally cannot lose. Probably because of the 294-170 lead that page gives him in electoral votes. > > Can we please, please, please just take this as the sign it is and not go through the next six months of idiocy and tedium? I know you know better than that. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/28 "2012-05-09T19:55:00Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > I know you know better than that. Yes. Tedium and idiocy it is. Sigh. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/29 "2012-05-09T20:02:15Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Huh. I guess that means that the election is over and Obama feels he literally cannot lose. Probably because of the 294-170 lead that page gives him in electoral votes. I suspect it means just the opposite: it means the election is close, and they’ve decided this is the way to play it. You don’t switch on a controversial issue months before election just for the sheer hell of it. As politics, it’s a very good move IMO. It very much energizes the young progressives who are his base and whose money and campaign work he needs. It hurts him with african-americans, but probably not too much. It energizes social conservatives against him … but they were already energized. More upside than down IMO. Really, it speaks to a weak economy combined with rapidly changing public opinion: they’d rather be in an election about gay rights than in one about the economy. The only downside, AFAICT, is that it now makes it awfully hard to campaign against Romney as an insincere flip-flopper on issues. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/30 "2012-05-09T20:09:49Z")
> [@furt](#): > > The only downside, AFAICT, is that it now makes it awfully hard to campaign against Romney as an insincere flip-flopper on issues. It’s not a flip-flop, technically, and that’s not how they’re campaigning against Romney. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/31 "2012-05-09T20:09:51Z")
To add: As I understand him, he’s only saying that he, personally, supports gay marriage – **not** that he supports a federal law or constitutional amendment intended to override state laws/constitutions. The latter would be a much different proposition. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/32 "2012-05-09T20:10:57Z")
Nobody thought otherwise. There is zero chance a federal law or Constitutional amendment could pass. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/33 "2012-05-09T20:17:05Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > It’s not a flip-flop, technically,… > [@](#): > > Obama told MTV he believes marriage is “between a man and a woman” and that he is “not in favor of gay marriage.” [http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2008/11/obama-on-mtv-i/](http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2008/11/obama-on-mtv-i/) > [@](#): > > Obama told ABC News that, after reflection, he had “concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same sex couples should be able to get married.” [http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/\_news/2012/05/09/11621156-obama-i-think-same-sex-couples-should-be-able-to-get-married?lite](http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/09/11621156-obama-i-think-same-sex-couples-should-be-able-to-get-married?lite) If you can find a way to make that into a single, unchanged position, explainable in two sentences or less to the typical voter … well, run for congress. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/34 "2012-05-09T20:24:50Z")
I’d forgotten about that comment. I was thinking of the “evolving” line. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/35 "2012-05-09T20:28:28Z")
> [@furt](#): > > If you can find a way to make that into a single, unchanged position, explainable in two sentences or less to the typical voter … well, run for congress. A “flip-flop” isn’t just changing your mind on an issue. That happens all the time in politics. The difference is when the change in position appears to be politically motivated and that the person holding the opinion will change sides just to pander to whoever they want to impress that day. This is pretty much the opposite of a flip-flop. ---
**Author:** ![Absolute](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b2d939/32.png) [@Absolute](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Absolute)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/36 "2012-05-09T20:30:11Z")
I think this is a huge gift to Romney. There is lots of support for gay marriage among young people, but sort of in an apathetic, “Yeah, why not?” kind of way. I do not think this will significantly increase young voter turnout. On the other hand, I think there are lots of older, conservative, or evangelical voters who care deeply about the issue and would definitely make an effort to show up on election day and vote against gay marriage (i.e. vote for Romney). I think it will help pro-Romney turnout a lot. Obviously Obama either disagrees, or thinks he has enough margin to win even despite this effect, or cares more about making a principled stand than winning. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/37 "2012-05-09T20:33:20Z")
> [@Absolute](#): > > I do not think this will significantly increase young voter turnout. Obama does need to recapture more of the enthusiasm and support he had from young people in 2008 - not just in terms of votes, but in terms of money. (Gay groups are apparently also working hard for him.) I can’t think of a better way than this. Since he took office people have been hoping he’d move faster on these issues. > [@](#): > > On the other hand, I think there are lots of older, conservative, or evangelical voters who care deeply about the issue and would definitely make an effort to show up on election day and vote against gay marriage (i.e. vote for Romney). And you thought those people were going to stay home otherwise? ---
**Author:** ![Absolute](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b2d939/32.png) [@Absolute](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Absolute)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/38 "2012-05-09T20:33:46Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > A “flip-flop” isn’t just changing your mind on an issue. That happens all the time in politics. The difference is when the change in position appears to be politically motivated and that the person holding the opinion will change sides just to pander to whoever they want to impress that day. > > This is pretty much the opposite of a flip-flop. Yeah, how so? That’s certainly what it looks like. I don’t think Obama has really changed his opinion on gay marriage in the past few years. I think he just kept his mouth shut until now for political reasons. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/39 "2012-05-09T20:36:39Z")
The difference between Romney’s flip-flops and Obama’s (in this instance) is that Romney never admits that he had a different opinion at one point. He just goes right ahead with, “I’ve always been against mandated insurance coverage.” I don’t believe I’ve ever heard Romney say, “You know, I’ve given it some thought and I’ve changed my mind on that.” He’s just always been at war with Eurasia. ---
**Author:** ![CJJ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecc23a/32.png) [@CJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CJJ)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2012, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313/40 "2012-05-09T21:25:07Z")
This is technically a change in position when compared against previous statements. But in Obama’s case there really seemed to be a clear evolution–he got rid of DADT, he told the Justice Dept. to stop with DOMA; in short, you can argue that he was legitimately wrestling with his conscience and that now he’s taking the politically dangerous position. And as **Jack Batty** points out, Obama acknowledges his past statements and owns the fact that he’s changed his mind. Romney’s flip-flops aren’t even comparable; they always seem to be calculated to take advantage of the latest political wind, and he just ignores whatever quotes are played in the past. I too wish Obama had done this sooner, and that he didn’t need to be pushed by other WH staffers to do it (though those may have been trial baloons sent up to test the political fallout in advance). But he deserves credit for finally getting there on his own, and he deserves to be defended from the inevitable screeching on the right. I can predict those doublethink clowns on Fox will claim it’s both a savvy political strategy yet also hugely unpopular with “main-stream America”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-a-pro-gay-marriage-stance-cost-obama-the-election/621313.md?page=3)