# Would Barry Bonds have been a 1st ballot HOF before PEDs? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [July 21, 2013, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137 "2013-07-21T21:56:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Cubsfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Cubsfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cubsfan)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2013, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/1 "2013-07-21T21:56:44Z")
I’m a little too young to remember him in the 80s on the Pirates. What’s the consensus? Was he on track to head to the HOF on the first ballot before gaining 75lbs of muscle? Why? ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2013, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/2 "2013-07-21T22:04:51Z")
Nope. He was a skinny little guy with a good swing, but no way he puts up HOF numbers without the help.\* \*Granted he was also helped by having his bionic elbow guard grandfathered in, but part of the reason that happened is that he was a big star already (based on PEDs). ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2013, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/3 "2013-07-21T22:45:53Z")
If we assume he started after 1998, when McGwire and Sosa battled it out for the HR title, he’d have [the following stats](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml#1986-1998-sum:batting_standard): R: 1364 Hits: 1917 HR: 411 RBI: 1216 SB: 445 AVG: .290 OBP: .411 SLG: .556 OPS: .966 BB: 1357 K: 1050 His hits are low - but he got on base 3200+ times, on account of his excellent batting eye. Those are really impressive numbers. They are, IMO, better than Tony Gwynn’s lifetime resume, and he was a first ballot entry. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2013, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/4 "2013-07-21T23:13:45Z")
**Munch** -question and observation: Question-You just prorated his stats right? Observation-His stats (other than SB) to Killebrew and McGwire. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2013, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/5 "2013-07-21T23:23:54Z")
I voted maybe because I’m not sure if he’d have been a first ballot HOFer or not, but he’d certainly be in Hall eventually. He won 3-MVPs while with the Pirates so he was certainly an excellent player with them well before the steroid use kicked in. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2013, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/6 "2013-07-21T23:39:50Z")
IMO he was HOF caliber before using PED. I wish he would have stayed in Pittsburgh. He more than likely would have naturally been one of the alltime greats. He was a 5 tool player. ---
**Author:** ![kevja](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@kevja](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kevja)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2013, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/7 "2013-07-21T23:44:00Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > **Munch** -question and observation: > > Question-You just prorated his stats right? > Observation-His stats (other than SB) to Killebrew and McGwire. The only 500/500 player. Meh And as far as the other stats compared to McGwire/Killebrew. Really?! You can not be serious! ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/8 "2013-07-22T00:03:56Z")
All I meant (didn’t look at their b-r pages): Lots of HR. relatively low H total, low AVG. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Panda](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ee7513/32.png) [@Darth\_Panda](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Panda)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/9 "2013-07-22T01:10:30Z")
I answered yes before fully reading the question. My answer was yes as whether he’d be first ballot if the scandal never occurred. But as as to whether he was on track to be first ballot before bulking up, I’d lean towards maybe - if he had some more real good seasons like 90 or 92, batting over .300 with 100 rbis and 40 or 50 stolen bases, yeah he could have. But who knows what he would have done? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/10 "2013-07-22T03:34:59Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > **Munch** -question and observation: > > Question-You just prorated his stats right? What Munch posted was the summary of Bonds’ stats through 1998, using the generally-accepted theory that he got into PEDs big-time after McGwire and Sosa’s 1998 home run chase. If Bonds’ career had ended there and then, after 1998, then, no, he’s not a first-ballot HOFer (and probably not a HOFer, period). IMO, despite the 3 MVP awards before '98, he seems to wind up in the Hall of Very Good (see Dale Murphy). If his career continued without PEDs from 1999 forward, and he continued to produce in those seasons as he had (taking into account the natural decline with age), I think he makes it into the HOF, though almost undoubtedly not on the first ballot. He probably would have had 4 or 5 more effective seasons left in him (he was only 33 in '98), and he might have reached 500 or 550 HRs even without the PEDs (not to mention stealing 500 or so bases). His career batting average would have been closer to .280 than .300, but with the other production numbers (and maybe another MVP award), he likely would still have had sufficient credentials. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/11 "2013-07-22T04:26:15Z")
Up until 1998 Bonds had won three MVP awards and was widely regarded as one of the best players of his time, so I admit I am unclear as to what the doubt here is. He was after 1998 vastly more qualified than Dale Murphy. Furthermore, the OP asks if he was **on track** for the Hall of Fame. Quite obviously so. Had he not started using PEDs during or after 1998 - which by every account is when he did - he was a tremendous player at the time, and there’s no reason to believe he would not have tacked on several more excellent seasons. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/12 "2013-07-22T10:52:40Z")
3 time MVP. There aren’t too many players out there with 3 MVPs. He probably winds up easily in the top 20 in HRs and RBI all time, and already had 8 Gold Gloves on his resume. For him to NOT be first ballot would have meant a sharp decline in skills post 1998, cutting his career short. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/13 "2013-07-22T11:42:12Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > Question-You just prorated his stats right? Click the link I provided - it’s his stats up through 1998, just like I said. > [@](#): > > Observation-His stats (other than SB) to Killebrew and McGwire. Huh? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/14 "2013-07-22T15:07:58Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > **Munch** -question and observation: > > Question-You just prorated his stats right? > Observation-His stats (other than SB) to Killebrew and McGwire. Hall of Fame voters are not actually silly enough to think Harmon Killebrew and Barry Bonds are similar players. You don’t just line up six or seven numbers and say “look, they’re the same,” or else they never would have put Ozzie Smith in the Hall of Fame. Over his career, Rusty Staub was as good, if not better, a hitter than Brooks Robinson, but nobody thinks Staub was the player Robinson was. Killebrew and McGwire in their entire careers were not as great as Bonds was from 1986 to 1998. Baseball Reference credits Bonds with about 106 WAR up to and including 1998. That makes him, _just to that point_, roughly the 25th greatest player of all time. Had he retired after 1998 he would have been about as great a player, in terms of that statistic, as Greg Maddux, Mike Schmidt, or Mel Ott. He wa a greater player in his first 13 seasons than Joe DiMaggio was in his 13 seasons, though of course it’s not DiMaggio’s fault he lost three other seasons to the war. Or course he then tacked on the equivalent of a Harmon Killebrew career after shootin’ up the juice. Would the HOF have recognized that? I absolutely 100% think Barry Bonds, had he retired after 1998, would have been in on the first ballot and it would not have been close. Look at how they swept in Kirby Puckett, another short-career player. The HOF historically does give SOME credit to short-career players (especially if there’s some extenuating circumstance, so it depends why Bonds suddenly retires) but in Bonds’s case his resume is so impressive - there’s no precedent for a 3-time MVP to be left out - that I’m pretty confident in saying he’d have been doing his induction speech in the summer of 2004. What to do with that I don’t know. It’s a shame Bonds turned out to be a monumental jackass and a cheater, but that’s how it turned out. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/15 "2013-07-22T15:09:26Z")
Yes, absolutely. ---
**Author:** ![leftfield6](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leftfield6/32/18780_2.png) [@leftfield6](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leftfield6)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/16 "2013-07-22T15:13:39Z")
I answered Maybe, but only because I missed the “on track” qualifier in the first post. I just read the poll question and responded . If asking was he on TRACK to become a HOFer, then yes, assuming the rest of his career would have maintained his projected arc. He would have been a probable first ballot. If the question had been was he a HOF at that point in time, as in he decided to suddenly retire, or career ending injury, then no. He would not have had the long career track record. As it is, with PED use, I hope he never gets in. Same with McGuire, Sosa, etc. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/17 "2013-07-22T15:38:11Z")
Serious question: if Bonds was already worthy before PEDs, why isn’t he still? I mean, logically, why does it matter that he cheated later in his career if what he had accomplished pre-cheating was already enough to qualify him for enshrinement in the HOF? Why does that invalidate his earlier career? Because he broke a bunch of records? I guess what I’m asking is, assuming you believe he cheated and feel he is unworthy of the HOF because of it, if he had started using PEDs after 1998, but just continued as an above-average but declining player and not a spectacular one, would you still feel the same way? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/18 "2013-07-22T15:45:12Z")
I’m genuinely surprised that people are even questioning this. Yes, he was clearly on track to make the HOF before he started using PEDs. I guess it just goes to show that Bill James was right when he referred to Bonds as “the most unappreciated superstar of my or any generation.”(quoting from memory) I think a more interesting choice for such a question would have been Clemens. I’d say yes, Roger would have made the HOF, though probably not on the first ballot, but I can see why many would disagree. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/19 "2013-07-22T15:50:15Z")
I said maybe because we don’t when he started using PEDs, or how his career would have gone without them. But based on the assumptions others are using he had a pretty good chance. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2013, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137/20 "2013-07-22T15:55:37Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > Serious question: if Bonds was already worthy before PEDs, why isn’t he still? > > I mean, logically, why does it matter that he cheated later in his career if what he had accomplished pre-cheating was already enough to qualify him for enshrinement in the HOF? Why does that invalidate his earlier career? Because he broke a bunch of records? > > I guess what I’m asking is, assuming you believe he cheated and feel he is unworthy of the HOF because of it, if he had started using PEDs after 1998, but just continued as an above-average but declining player and not a spectacular one, would you still feel the same way? Because the Baseball writers of America have decided, rightly or wrongly, to send a message that if you use PEDs you don’t get into the HOF. Beyond that, people who break certain rules have been “banned” from the HOF due to those transgressions. Just ask Pete Rose, and Shoeless Joe Jackson. I know others may disagree, but I for one felt that it was appropriate for Major League Baseball to draw such a line in the sand, though obviously Rose’s sins were less severe than Jackson’s. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-barry-bonds-have-been-a-1st-ballot-hof-before-peds/664137.md?page=2)