# Would McCain have won the election if he'd chosen Tom Ridge as Veep? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 3, 2008, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947 "2008-11-03T23:50:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![TVeblen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/4bbf92/32.png) [@TVeblen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TVeblen)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/21 "2008-11-04T02:43:31Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] McCain will probably lose primarily because he ran a terrible campaign. I thought Kerry ran a bad campaign 4 years ago, but McCain’s is much worse. He would need a lot more than a good VP pick to win if we assume his campaign tactics would remain the same. Not to mention that fact that Obama is running a extremely good campaign, which would not have changed with Ridge on the GOP ticket. [/QUOTE] I can’t quite separate McCain’s terrible campaign from his choice of Veep. Since he decided Lieberman was too risky, the idea of woman on the ticket was rather genius, IMO, especially given the Dem’s prolonged Hillary experience. Ridge could have pulled some votes but he also hauled baggage, notably the expensive and inept Homeland Security department. Toss up there, IMO. There was no one, clear perfect choice as a running mate but McCain had a wide array of really excellent folks to pick from. Again, though, I think the idea of a conservative woman running mate was inspired. He just chose about the worst one possible. Olympia Snowe, governor of Maine, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Linda Lingle, governor of Hawaii: all smart as hell, experienced and oozed credibility. Instead McCain went for a blatant appeal to the religious right with Palin, who was not only manifestly unqualified but whose maverick, i.e. ruthless, ambition made her unreliable. She energized the wingnut faction but alienated the centrists and fiscal conservatives. McCain’s (or rather his handlers’) gamble with Palin _might_ have worked anyway except for the crucial, unforeseen element: Wall Street imploded. This election race would be a real nail-biter, IMO, if the economy hadn’t tanked in such spectacular fashion. I’m not sure _anyone_ could have given McCain enough distance from the debacle but a running mate really strong in economics–and not too tied to Cheney/Shrub–would have given the GOP a much stronger shot. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/22 "2008-11-04T02:44:21Z")
I don’t think he could have won, but he might have merely lost rather than being humiliatingly drubbed. ---
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/23 "2008-11-04T02:45:55Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > There is no such thing as “the GOP” in the sense that you are using that term-- ie, some monolithic entity that “forces” things to happen. It’s a bunch of competing factions, many of whom were horrified at the selection of Palin. Not the least of whom was Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who thought he was qualified as a VP pick, only to lose to no-brainy Sarah. Recall how cool he was toward a McCain visit to his state? “I won’t be available. I’ll be at Disney World,” was about what he said. And then the Gov dramatically expanded voting times throughout Florida. McCain might well lose the Sunshine State for pissing off Crist. I hope so, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/24 "2008-11-04T02:47:56Z")
> [@TVeblen](#): > > Again, though, I think the idea of a conservative woman running mate was inspired. He just chose about the worst one possible. If it had to be a woman, she had to be pro-life, and she had to be a governor, I don’t think there were any other options (which should be a _clue_, shouldn’t it?) than Palin. Now, we can argue about it, but I think a pro-choice choice would have been a bad choice for McCain choice. The Dobsons were already suspicious of McCain, for goofy reasons in my opinion. A pro-choice running mate would likely have exacerbated that suspicion. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/25 "2008-11-04T02:50:29Z")
> [@BarnOwl](#): > > Not the least of whom was Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who thought he was qualified as a VP pick, only to lose to no-brainy Sarah. He would have been a better choice if not for the persistent gay rumors. It’s ridiculous that such a thing matters, but it does. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/26 "2008-11-04T02:52:09Z")
> [@TVeblen](#): > > Olympia Snowe, governor of Maine, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Linda Lingle, governor of Hawaii: all smart as hell, experienced and oozed credibility. Snowe is a senator, actually (both of Maine’s senators, Snowe and Susan Collins, are women). The governor is David Baldacci. But you make a good point. There were experienced women out there, and “executive experienced” male governors like Crist and Sanford. Who knows - maybe McCain could’ve formed a center-right coalition if he hadn’t made such a strong play to the religious right. But I think he probably just had to please too many people, and as a result he faced too many constraints on what he could say and do. ---
**Author:** ![TVeblen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/4bbf92/32.png) [@TVeblen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TVeblen)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/27 "2008-11-04T02:58:29Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] Snowe is a senator, actually (both of Maine’s senators, Snowe and Susan Collins, are women). The governor is David Baldacci. But you make a good point. There were experienced women out there, and “executive experienced” male governors like Crist and Sanford. [/QUOTE] D’uh! Right you are, my mistake, brain fart and apologies. Sigh. Election overload. And kunilou made my same basic point to the OP but did it in three elegant sentences. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/28 "2008-11-04T03:03:02Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Yeah, Palin had [no effect](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/04/after-palin-speech-obama-has-record-10-million-day/) on the race. :rolleyes: Just a cursory glace at the SDMB will show you that voters are _very, very_ tuned into the VP’s impact on this race. I think you are going to be alone in your analysis. If voters on the SDMB were indicative of the electorate, Obama would win 80% of the popular vote and all 538 electoral votes. Palin has hurt the McCain campaign, but as John Mace points out, the McCain campaign has been very badly run in many respects. I think Palin’s selection will just make the defeat greater; had he picked Tom Ridge I suspect they’d have lost anyway, but been closer. Obama is running the best election campaign I’ve ever seen in my life; it’d be a hard thing to beat. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/29 "2008-11-04T03:14:14Z")
Picking Ridge would not have made a difference because, in the end, John McCain is still at the top of the ticket, and John McCain is too closely tied to the giant albatross that is George W Bush. ---
**Author:** ![LouisB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/dfb087/32.png) [@LouisB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LouisB)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/30 "2008-11-04T03:16:21Z")
McCain hasn’t lost this election as yet; let’s keep that firmly in mind when we go to vote tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/31 "2008-11-04T03:22:16Z")
It might’ve helped quite a bit if he’d decided on Palin two months earlier and had her extensively tutored in public speaking and current events so she’d come off as hot, right-wing _and_ smart. Man, I wish I coulda been Palin’s speechwriter… Quayle’s, too. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/32 "2008-11-04T04:01:55Z")
Most political experts say the VP makes no difference. It is about the presidential candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/33 "2008-11-04T04:52:53Z")
How many times has Biden been quoted in the paper. Not quoted by the opposition (e.g., look at this gaffe), but stories made of of utterances? If the whispering campaign has had any impact on the vote, it had a tremendous boost by the mega-coverage that she garnered for McCain. How that balances out I can’t say, but between that and the energizing the base aspect, I think this is about as tight as it could have gotten. Just think what could have happened if she had just a few extra months’ advance notice of her selection. She seems like an idiot because she’s drastically unprepared. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/34 "2008-11-04T05:41:44Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > A cursory glance at the SDMB will show that we’re mostly Obama supporters. > > If you’re interested in a debate, cool it with the condescension and rolleyes. I’m not arguing that the SDMB is representative, I’m arguing that the VP choice is _clearly_ meaningful in this particular Presidential race. That fact that it’s made the local Obama supporters rabid is valid evidence of that fact. Whether or not the SDMB is balanced or centrist is not relevant. You’re making a statement – that Palin is meaningless in this election – that is so completely off the reservation that there’s going to be a bit of condescension, sorry, just the way it goes. I’m not saying it’s the _only_ issue or that it’s more important than McCain and Obama but your complete denial of it’s significance is baffling in the extreme. It’s like saying the sky is red and the world is flat. > [@Marley23](#): > > I’ve said since September that the other options were really lame, so Palin wasn’t THAT bad of a choice. But I think I have to admit by now that the polls show independents think she’s an idiot and even Republicans have serious concerns. So looking at that I guess the conclusion is that McCain shouldn’t have compromised the experience card (in exchange for a “team of mavericks” thing that never caught on). But the second-biggest problem McCain had - and the most significant one he could control\* - is a failure to connect with people on economic issues. In the first presidential debate, he didn’t mention the middle class once, and he continued to make that error in the other debates and even to the end of the campaign. So maybe Romney was the best choice after all, much as people didn’t respond to him as a person. The one thing he could’ve offered was economic expertise. > > I do stick to my thesis though - all the top candidates had at least one serious flaw, and I don’t think you can automatically conclude that McCain would’ve won if he’d picked someone else. Palin had the experience problem, but Ridge and Lieberman weren’t socially conservative enough and Romney lack real conservative cred, especially on religion, while Pawlenty didn’t seem to have anything to offer. All of them (except Palin) are very short on pizzazz, and he DID need to generate some excitement. I don’t know think it would have been impossible to find someone who fit the conservative criteria without surrendering experience. > > Ultimately maybe McCain just had too many flaws for a VP to cancel out. He had a shortage of excitement, of Reagan conservative plaudits, and of religion. Maybe if he’d been able to grab a hold of one of those three, he would’ve have had to go so far outside the box for his VP and independents would have been easier to reach. > > \*The biggest problem in the campaign wasn’t McCain’s fault: it was that his opponent was Barack Obama. I agree that Barack might have been unbeatable, but the reason I chose Ridge was under the assumption that he could guarantee Pennsylvania would be red. Other candidates might have worked better politically and share the benefit of not being Palin, but they couldn’t have delivered as many electoral votes. I think it’s an interesting academic question. A open debate of which VP choice would have been best from a policy perspective is probably a good topic for another thread, but I’m curious if people think that playing electoral college math is the most effective strategy for choosing a VP. > [@RickJay](#): > > If voters on the SDMB were indicative of the electorate, Obama would win 80% of the popular vote and all 538 electoral votes. Like I said, not really making the case that the SDMB is representative, but the fact that they care about Palin _a lot_ makes it hard to claim that she didn’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/35 "2008-11-04T07:49:02Z")
> [@TVeblen](#): > > Again, though, I think the idea of a conservative woman running mate was inspired. He just chose about the worst one possible. Olympia Snowe, governor of Maine, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Linda Lingle, governor of Hawaii: all smart as hell, experienced and oozed credibility. Exactly. The pundits talk about Ridge & Pawlenty, but Kay Bailey Hutchison or Christie Whitman would have made a lot of sense. Whitman’s a bit to the left of the party, but Hutchison is very conservative. There was little real downside (what, the pro-lifers were going to run to the Dems over Biden’s disapproval of publicly funded abortion?) but it’s like no one considered it. ---
**Author:** ![Carson\_O\_Genic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cdc98d/32.png) [@Carson\_O\_Genic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carson_O_Genic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/36 "2008-11-04T10:14:54Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I agree that Barack might have been unbeatable, but the reason I chose Ridge was under the assumption that he could guarantee Pennsylvania would be red. ``` I don't think that's a fair assumption. Yes, he's popular and moderate, pro-choice and doesn't harp about religion, but that's why he wasn't a good fit for McCain in the first place. Had he been picked, the race WOULD be more engaging, and McC would have a larger share of Pa., but Philly/Pittsburgh dominate and will paint the place blue. ``` ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947/37 "2008-11-04T13:54:58Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I’m not arguing that the SDMB is representative, I’m arguing that the VP choice is _clearly_ meaningful in this particular Presidential race. That fact that it’s made the local Obama supporters rabid is valid evidence of that fact. Whether or not the SDMB is balanced or centrist is not relevant. Obama supporters don’t like Palin therefore Palin is super relevant because otherwise those Obama supporters would have switched over and voted for McCain? Interesting theory. Assumption 1: Palin appears to have fired up the Republican base and probably brought some right wingers back to the fold. Ridge would not have done this. Assumption 2: Palin appears to have turned off some moderates and driven some independents away. Ridge would not have done this. Sorry. I just don’t see Palin as being the game-changer you want to believe she was. The poll pattern followed the bump Nate Silver on 538 predicted before Palin was chosen. The economy tends to be a favorable issue for Democrats. McCain is probably a little worse than most Republicans when it comes to trust on economic issues. George Bush is _remarkably_ unpopular. So, believe that Obama supporters determine Palin’s relevancy all you want. That doesn’t make it so. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-mccain-have-won-the-election-if-hed-chosen-tom-ridge-as-veep/470947.md?page=1)