# Would murder and/or death rates rise, or lower, if the 2nd Amendment was abolished? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 13, 2018, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491 "2018-03-13T14:55:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/1 "2018-03-13T14:55:33Z")
NOTE: This is not a claim that this is the _only_ reason to for the 2nd Amendment. This thread is for the discussion of claims that the murder rate and/or the total death rate(including accidents and suicides) would go up if the 2nd Amendment were abolished, versus claims that we would see a drop in the murder rate and the total death rate if it happened. Personally, I think the suicide rate would go down, despite claims that if people want to kill themselves they will find a way-guns make it easy and fast. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/2 "2018-03-13T15:01:15Z")
Abolishing the 2nd wouldn’t change any laws about gun buying,owning, or carrying. Do you think there would be new federal laws restricting guns, or widespread state laws doing so? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/3 "2018-03-13T15:03:04Z")
Are we to imagine a country only where the 2nd Amendment were abolished, or are we to presume that in this hypothetical there will be some additional gun control enacted? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/4 "2018-03-13T15:10:32Z")
I think that we can safely assume that without the backing of the 2nd Amendment some states would tighten gun laws to restrict access. Going on the assumption that this is true, do you think the murder rate and/or the total death rate would rise, or lower? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/5 "2018-03-13T15:14:42Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I think that we can safely assume that without the backing of the 2nd Amendment some states would tighten gun laws to restrict access. Going on the assumption that this is true, do you think **the murder rate** and/or the total death rate would rise, or lower? Since criminals don’t care about the law, no. The bulk of handgun deaths are suicide. Total death rate, no idea. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/6 "2018-03-13T15:16:43Z")
I haven’t investigated suicide rates, so I couldn’t say. At a glance, there doesn’t seem to be much correlation between these charts: > **[Estimated number of civilian guns per capita by country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country)** > > This is a list of countries by estimated number of privately owned guns per 100 persons. The Small Arms Survey 2017 provides estimates of the total number of civilian-owned guns in a country. It then calculates the number per 100 people. This number for a country does not indicate the percentage of the population that owns guns. This is because individuals can own more than one gun. > See also: Percent of households with guns by country. It gives the percent of households with guns. It is furth... > **[List of countries by suicide rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate)** > > The following are lists of countries by suicide rate as published by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other sources.\[note 1\] > About one person in 5,000–15,000 dies by suicide every year, with an estimated global rate of 10.5 per 100,000 population down from 11.6 in 2008. In high-income modernized countries male and female rates of suicidal behaviors differ much compared to those in the rest of the world: while women are reportedly more prone to suicidal thoughts, rates of suicide are hi... Sweden, for example, has a higher suicide rate than the USA, but only 20% as many guns. Japan has, effectively, no guns, and a noticeably higher suicide rate. I’m willing to believe that there may be a correlation between gun ownership and suicide in the US, but that could easily be correlated to poverty (living in a dangerous neighborhood), mental illness (general paranoia), and people who want to commit suicide going and _becoming the owner of a gun_. For purposes of argument, I’ve chosen to not investigate the subject and to assume that guns do raise the rate of suicide, but I suspect that if there is any correlation, that it’s either not a causative factor (rather that the reverse is) or that it’s simply not the most notable factor of all other things that you could work on. There are likely other things that you could do which would be more effective and more productive for society, and not risk the intents that the 2nd Amendment were enacted for. (I’ll also note that I hold euthenasia and suicide as a basic rights of life, so I don’t really care one way or the other whether guns do or don’t cause suicide.) I am curious about accidents. I find it plausible and likely that gun ownership leads to accidents. I mean, we talk about keeping guns out of the hands of the mentally unstable or mentally incompetent. But, in a very practical sense, that’s what all children _are_. Granted, they can and will most likely leave that state and because they’re small and cooperative, generally it’s not an issue in life, but they really don’t have the right appreciation of the world and themselves to be safely left with a device that can equalize their killing potential with that of a police officer. On the other hand, it’s plausible that the sort of kid who thinks it’s funny to point a thing that can kill people at their sibling, is also the sort of kid who is otherwise going to do dumb and scary things like pushing their sibling over the edge of a cliff just to see what happens. Fundamentally, kids are just tiny humans and are going to kill themselves or others through general stupidity and/or evil intent given whatever comes to hand as anyone else. But, probably, my guess would be that accidental death rates would go down. Guns are a reasonably effective way of killing someone, compared to most other techniques, and requires very little strength. But I also suspect that accidental deaths would decrease by a rate much lower than most gun haters would be expecting. ETA: I’m writing with the assumption that the OP is assuming that all of the guns already in existence go magically into an alternate dimension and stay there. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/7 "2018-03-13T15:24:44Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > Abolishing the 2nd wouldn’t change any laws about gun buying,owning, or carrying. Not directly, but it would permit changes that are now constantly frustrated by claims based on the 2nd’s existence. The OP would get a more useful discussion by listing the changes he thinks would become enabled. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/8 "2018-03-13T15:29:17Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > ETA: I’m writing with the assumption that the OP is assuming that all of the guns already in existence go magically into an alternate dimension and stay there. Please don’t. Just go on the assumption that there would probably be a fewer amount of legally owned firearms, dependent on what laws states eventually pass. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/9 "2018-03-13T15:44:47Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I think that we can safely assume that without the backing of the 2nd Amendment some states would tighten gun laws to restrict access. Going on the assumption that this is true, do you think the murder rate and/or the total death rate would rise, or lower? Likely no significant change. I suppose, _maybe_, after a century, with less guns in circulation, maybe a small decrease. But certainly nothing significant in the next couple of decades. States or cities with strict gun control in the uSA do not seem to have any significant reduction in violent crime. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/10 "2018-03-13T15:46:25Z")
Not much in the near future, significant change after several decades. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/11 "2018-03-13T15:47:08Z")
The country is already flooded with guns. The only thing that would work is confiscation of all the guns, destroying them, then passing very strict gun control to purchase a new gun. Doing that would drastically lower the number of gun deaths. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/12 "2018-03-13T15:49:13Z")
I think any changes caused by this would get swamped by other factors (like changes in demographics or improving medical care) and be very hard to pick out of the statistical noise. For example, I suspect Australia is the premiere example of “if you get rid of guns, here’s what happens”, and you’ll probably have a hard time convincing people that it significantly altered the total death rates as long as [charts like this](http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/free.nsf/lookupattach/9abde7d9b0a171b0ca2581a700159219/%24File/1.3%20STANDARDISED%20DEATH%20RATES(a),%20Australia%20-%201976%20to%202016.GIF) exist. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/13 "2018-03-13T15:51:06Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Please don’t. Just go on the assumption that there would probably be a fewer amount of legally owned firearms, dependent on what laws states eventually pass. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Likely no significant change. I suppose, _maybe_, after a century, with less guns in circulation, maybe a small decrease. But certainly nothing significant in the next couple of decades. States or cities with strict gun control in the uSA do not seem to have any significant reduction in violent crime. Yep. Even with complete removal, you’re unlikely to see anything drastic, let alone with the rate of decrease in arms ownership that you would see allowing for natural removal of guns over the course of the next century, based on the passage of local laws. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/14 "2018-03-13T15:52:46Z")
All calculations must take into account the increased risk of invasion from England. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/15 "2018-03-13T15:53:24Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think any changes caused by this would get swamped by other factors (like changes in demographics or improving medical care) and be very hard to pick out of the statistical noise. For example, I suspect Australia is the premiere example of “if you get rid of guns, here’s what happens”, and you’ll probably have a hard time convincing people that it significantly altered the total death rates as long as [charts like this](http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/free.nsf/lookupattach/9abde7d9b0a171b0ca2581a700159219/$File/1.3%20STANDARDISED%20DEATH%20RATES(a),%20Australia%20-%201976%20to%202016.GIF) exist. Notably, in Australia, I believe that they went out and collected as large a set of guns as they could each time they raised the restrictions, so you would expect to see some sort of raising or lowering of the graph at a single moment, rather than a relatively smooth transition. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/16 "2018-03-13T15:55:02Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Please don’t. Just go on the assumption that there would probably be a fewer amount of legally owned firearms, dependent on what laws states eventually pass. Still pretty vague. All you can say is that fewer guns = fewer opportunities for gun deaths = fewer gun deaths. “They’ll just find other ways instead” is not a supported statement. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/17 "2018-03-13T15:58:04Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > All calculations must take into account the increased risk of invasion from England. [https://lawfareblog.com/can-it-happen-here-authoritarianism-america](https://lawfareblog.com/can-it-happen-here-authoritarianism-america) > **[Assassination of Julius Caesar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Julius_Caesar)** > > Julius Caesar was assassinated by a group of senators on the Ides of March (15 March) of 44 BC during a meeting of the Senate at the Curia of Pompey of the Theatre of Pompey in Rome where the senators stabbed Caesar 23 times. They claimed to be acting over fears that Caesar's unprecedented concentration of power during his dictatorship was undermining the Roman Republic. At least 60 to 70 senators were party to the conspiracy, led by Marcus Junius Brutus, Gaius Cassius Longinus, and Decimus Ju... ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/18 "2018-03-13T16:06:49Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Still pretty vague. All you can say is that fewer guns = fewer opportunities for gun deaths = fewer gun deaths. “They’ll just find other ways instead” is not a supported statement. I know it is vague, but I also know that there is no way to phrase it that doesn’t invite hijacks. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/19 "2018-03-13T16:08:56Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Still pretty vague. All you can say is that fewer guns = fewer opportunities for gun deaths = fewer gun deaths. “They’ll just find other ways instead” is not a supported statement. That _seems_ logical, but it is not bourne out by the evidence. Indeed: “fewer guns = fewer opportunities for gun deaths = fewer gun deaths” is not a supported statement. In any case, why are we more concerned about “gun deaths” than knife deaths or bomb deaths or any other death? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/20 "2018-03-13T16:13:34Z")
So we’re just dismissing evidence we don’t like, such as the entire rest of the world? Interesting. We \*are \*concerned with reducing killings overall - why do you think otherwise? You hear about guns because that’s where the most opportunity lies, in terms of how many lives we can save and how readily it can be done. The 2nd as it is commonly interpreted today stands in the way. That’s the thread topic, and let’s identify attempted diversions from it as soon as they appear. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491.md?page=2)