# Would murder and/or death rates rise, or lower, if the 2nd Amendment was abolished? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 13, 2018, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491 "2018-03-13T14:55:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/81 "2018-03-13T22:06:25Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > With all the scenarios he seems to be afraid of(and thus prepared for), I don’t think I am the one who is confused. Where on earth are you getting that I’m quaking in my boots from fear of an invasion? And what difference would it make if I were? Anyone can fall prey at any time. A person can live in an expensive home with alarms on every door and window and closed-circuit television and guards at the gate, etc., and still get robbed, beaten or shot during a hijacking. His wife could get abducted from a parking lot. Etc., etc. When it comes to protection, people buy guns for the same reason they buy insurance - not because they expect something to happen (or are ‘afraid’ of it, as you suppose), but to be protected in the event it does. Please don’t tell me you’re unaware of this. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/82 "2018-03-13T22:14:09Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > The number of good guys killed by bad guys would go up. The number of bad guys killed by good guys would go down. > > This includes good guy deaths resulting from weapons other than guns that would have been prevented had the good guys had guns. For example, you are lying in bed at night when a bad guy with a knife breaks in. You are at his mercy and he kills you for whatever reason (you wouldn’t/couldn’t tell him where your money was hidden, he didn’t want to leave witnesses, the thrill of the kill, whatever). Obviously your best defense would have been a gun, which would have rendered the bad guy with a knife no problem at all. But you’re a good, law-abiding citizen and you’ve turned in all your guns, so now you’re dead. And probably your wife will be too once he’s done raping her. > > Bad things happen to people when they can’t defend themselves, and guns are the best defense there is. The thing I find hilarious about this scenario, aside from the general aura of hysteria, is that when he gave himself back his gun he didn’t also give one to the crook. Of course it can be assumed that even if the crook did have a gun, he’d miss, or only give those flesh wounds that can be shrugged off like on the TV. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/83 "2018-03-13T22:26:05Z")
> [@begbert2](#): > > The thing I find hilarious about this scenario, aside from the general aura of hysteria, is that when he gave himself back his gun he didn’t also give one to the crook. > > Of course it can be assumed that even if the crook did have a gun, he’d miss, or only give those flesh wounds that can be shrugged off like on the TV. Is there a line on the application that says “GOOD GUY\_\_ BAD GUY\_\_ (Please Check One)” that makes sure the guns don’t get in the wrong hands? ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/84 "2018-03-13T22:36:22Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Is there a line on the application that says “GOOD GUY\_\_ BAD GUY\_\_ (Please Check One)” that makes sure the guns don’t get in the wrong hands? There is, but private sellers don’t need to submit the form when they resell their guns to other people. ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/85 "2018-03-13T22:43:25Z")
So let me get this straight. You guys have now landed on “_Haha, **Starvey’s** scared of bad guys_” as your argument in favor of outlawing guns? Oh, well. When a man really wants something, one reason’s as good as another, I suppose. But still…:D:D:D ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2018, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/86 "2018-03-13T22:55:27Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > So let me get this straight. You guys have now landed on “_Haha, **Starvey’s** scared of bad guys_” as your argument in favor of outlawing guns? > > Oh, well. When a man really wants something, one reason’s as good as another, I suppose. > > But still…:D:D:D No, we’re landing on how stupid your presented scenario was - how the man with the knife _dominated_ you, but then you (and not he (especially not he)) suddenly got a gun, and were _GOD_. Your argument for keeping guns was bad comedy. So we’re laughing at it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/87 "2018-03-14T02:02:28Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > So let me get this straight. You guys have now landed on “_Haha, **Starvey’s** scared of bad guys_” as your argument in favor of outlawing guns? > > Oh, well. When a man really wants something, one reason’s as good as another, I suppose. > > But still…:D:D:D Yeah, that was weak, shows they got nuthin better. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/88 "2018-03-14T02:44:25Z")
That might be a valid point if the discussion was actually centered on literally outlawing guns. But I guess those are our only options: guns coming out of the woodworks or all guns are illegal. Thanks for clarifying the terms of discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/89 "2018-03-14T02:53:37Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think any changes caused by this would get swamped by other factors (like changes in demographics or improving medical care) and be very hard to pick out of the statistical noise. For example, I suspect Australia is the premiere example of “if you get rid of guns, here’s what happens”, and you’ll probably have a hard time convincing people that it significantly altered the total death rates as long as [charts like this](http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/free.nsf/lookupattach/9abde7d9b0a171b0ca2581a700159219/$File/1.3%20STANDARDISED%20DEATH%20RATES(a),%20Australia%20-%201976%20to%202016.GIF) exist. The OP asks two questions. Would murder rates decrease and would death rates decrease. Your graph shows death rates decreasing in Australia. I can tell you that murder rates have also decreased in Australia. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/90 "2018-03-14T03:07:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > He should be free to do as he chooses. If he wants to buy a gun, he should be free to do so. That’d be fine, if that’s how all guns were used, i.e. home defense. Blame many of your fellow Americans for ruining it for everybody. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/91 "2018-03-14T03:41:06Z")
> [@Isamu](#): > > The OP asks two questions. Would murder rates decrease and would death rates decrease. Your graph shows death rates decreasing in Australia. I can tell you that murder rates have also decreased in Australia. Yes, but (as has been brought up in some of our discussions about Trump’s economic performance) that analysis of yours in the paragraph I cited above, _completely ignores_ the pre-existing trend. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/92 "2018-03-14T03:42:19Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > That’d be fine, if that’s how all guns were used, i.e. home defense. Blame many of your fellow Americans for ruining it for everybody. Not many. It’s a relatively few that are ruining it for everybody. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/93 "2018-03-14T03:51:14Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Yes, but (as has been brought up in some of our discussions about Trump’s economic performance) that analysis of yours in the paragraph I cited above, _completely ignores_ the pre-existing trend. But I think that the gun restrictions were also part of the same anti-violence trend that Australia has been going through since the 70s. A big public campaign against drinking (or pro responsible drinking) and anti brawling posters etc. It’s been a big change. So, part of the trend. ---
**Author:** ![Sanity\_Challenged](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de053/32.png) [@Sanity\_Challenged](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sanity_Challenged)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/94 "2018-03-14T05:41:23Z")
An America that mustered up enough momentum to repeal the 2nd would be socially very different than current America - so much so that social differences would alter homicide/suicide rates much more than any legal changes. Hard to predict what that would look like, so instead, we’ll go with waving a magic wand and poofing the 2A out of existence in current America. California, New Jersey, New York, Chicago, Washington D.C. all immediately pass draconian gun-control laws, some with very well-funded confiscation efforts that are magically very successful (just to play with the hypothetical). IMHO with no cites whatsoever… Suicide attempts go down very slightly among the least committed. Successful suicide rate goes down somewhat more - probably the biggest change caused by the hypothetical with the most chance to be statistically measurable. The majority of murder doesn’t change much. Criminals in gun-controlled areas still get plenty of guns to shoot each other with. Attempted murders of impulse & passion probably go down very slightly, and also have a lower success rate. High profile school shootings by teenagers probably significantly drop or disappear in heavy gun-control areas, no change elsewhere. A tiny percentage of a tiny percentage of all murders, so not noticeable in the stats. Adult whackos still get their hands on guns and commit enough mass murders to keep the news networks busy. Various forms of assault go up. Some assaults not intended to be murders end up being murders, so the increased assaults result in more murders. Enough to fill in the gaps left by the very small decreases in other successful murders, or even exceed them? I actually think this will be close. As for overall death rate, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that 100% of people still die. Not a guarantee when we’re swinging magic wands around, but I’m going to stick with “no change”. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/95 "2018-03-14T10:20:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Not many. It’s a relatively few that are ruining it for everybody. Well, not to bother quibbling over the difference between “many” and “relatively few”, at least we agree that something being ruined. Other constitutional rights are subject to restriction, even when the harms caused by abuses of those rights are far less severe. I don’t see why the 2nd should be special. ---
**Author:** ![DragonAsh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/db5fbb/32.png) [@DragonAsh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DragonAsh)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/96 "2018-03-14T10:28:52Z")
> [@Sanity\_Challenged](#): > > Suicide attempts go down very slightly among the least committed. Suicide attempts - and obviously successful suicide attempts - would probably fall sharply, probably by at least 30%. That’s based on what has happened pretty much any time any sort of barrier - anything at all! - to killing oneself has been introduced (changing the types of ovens we use, adding a slightly higher barrier to climb over on bridges etc). The actual act of suicide itself is a split-second, spontaneous thing. Guns make it very easy. Note that people that survive an actual suicide attempt usually don’t try again. > [@Sanity\_Challenged](#): > > The majority of murder doesn’t change much. Criminals in gun-controlled areas still get plenty of guns to shoot each other with. > Attempted murders of impulse & passion probably go down very slightly, and also have a lower success rate. > High profile school shootings by teenagers probably significantly drop or disappear in heavy gun-control areas, no change elsewhere. A tiny percentage of a tiny percentage of all murders, so not noticeable in the stats. Adult whackos still get their hands on guns and commit enough mass murders to keep the news networks busy. > Various forms of assault go up. Some assaults not intended to be murders end up being murders, so the increased assaults result in more murders. Enough to fill in the gaps left by the very small decreases in other successful murders, or even exceed them? I actually think this will be close. :smack: So with fewer guns around, we end up with _more_ assaults and more murders? I am struggling to understand how you could arrive at that causal relationship. From [FactCheck.Org](https://www.factcheck.org/2017/10/gun-control-australia-updated/) > [@](#): > > “While 13 gun massacres (the killing of 4 or more people at one time) occurred in Australia in the 18 years before the NFA, resulting in more than one hundred deaths, in the 14 following years (and up to the present), there were no gun massacres.” > “In the seven years before the NFA (1989-1995), the average annual firearm suicide death rate per 100,000 was 2.6 (with a yearly range of 2.2 to 2.9); in the seven years after the buyback was fully implemented (1998-2004), the average annual firearm suicide rate was 1.1 (yearly range 0.8 to 1.4).” > “In the seven years before the NFA, the average annual firearm homicide rate per 100,000 was .43 (range .27 to .60) while for the seven years post NFA, the average annual firearm homicide rate was .25 (range .16 to .33).” > “[T]he drop in firearm deaths was largest among the type of firearms most affected by the buyback.” In terms of [total crimes per capita](http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Crime/Total-crimes-per-1000), the UK is as ‘dangerous’ (or possibly more so) than the US, yet the homicide rate in the UK is considerably lower. I wonder why that is. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/97 "2018-03-14T14:58:37Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > So let me get this straight. You guys have now landed on “_Haha, **Starvey’s** scared of bad guys_” as your argument in favor of outlawing guns? Our main argument has nothing to do with your preparedness when in comes to rare/extreme circumstances you may have seen on crime reality shows. The next time you grasp at straws, might I suggest you go for the ones that haven’t already traveled through a cow’s stomachs? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/98 "2018-03-14T15:32:23Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > The number of good guys killed by bad guys would go up. The number of bad guys killed by good guys would go down. I would love to see your support for this. It flies in the face of the data (as in actual evidence) in the post just above your post. Do you have more than feelings on this? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/99 "2018-03-14T15:33:44Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Well, not to bother quibbling over the difference between “many” and “relatively few”, at least we agree that something being ruined. Other constitutional rights are subject to restriction, even when the harms caused by abuses of those rights are far less severe. I don’t see why the 2nd should be special. The RKBA is already subject to restrictions. I don’t see why so frequently debaters on your side make the false claim that there aren’t regulations in place today. ---
**Author:** ![Kearsen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/82dd89/32.png) [@Kearsen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kearsen)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/100 "2018-03-14T15:49:13Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > That’d be fine, if that’s how all guns were used, i.e. home defense. Blame many of your fellow Americans for ruining it for everybody. Which fellow Americans would those be? The ones committing crimes with guns? I have a great idea, make whatever they do ILLEGAL! Oh wait… Or even better, make whatever they do WITH A GUN, even more ILLEGAL! Oh wait … [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491.md?page=6)