# Would murder and/or death rates rise, or lower, if the 2nd Amendment was abolished? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 13, 2018, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491 "2018-03-13T14:55:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/141 "2018-03-15T19:18:45Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yesbut Canada only has a tenth of the US population. However, yes, the Canada murder rate is 1.68 as compared to 4.88. About a third. This comment doesn’t make sense. That rate is adjusted for population - it’s number per 100K if I recall correctly. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/142 "2018-03-15T19:27:17Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > This comment doesn’t make sense. That rate is adjusted for population - it’s number per 100K if I recall correctly. Yes, but you have to take it in context. I was replying to Crazy Canucks post of "…6\*08 murders in 2015 in Canada, there where 178 gun homicides, or which 105 were with handguns, which was honestly higher than I expected. It still beats the 13,286 people killed by guns in the States during the same year though."\* So he was comparing the number of people killed in the states as opposed to the raw number in Canada. I was showing that the murder _rate_- which indeed \*is \*adjusted for population- does not show that great of a difference. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/143 "2018-03-15T19:33:18Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > … Depends on your definition of “almost no one”. I would put the number of people that carry on a regular basis at less than 1% of the population. There are no really stats to say one way or the other, but from what I have seen here and amongst my acquaintances, less than 20% of CCWer’s carry regularly. Sure there are (“stats to say”). The WaPo article **Whack-a-Mole** linked to said: > [@](#): > > The peer-reviewed study concluded that roughly 9 million people carried loaded handguns at least one a month, including 3 million who carried them every day. > [@](#): > > The information comes from the National Firearms Survey, which the authors — a group of public health experts at the University of Washington, Harvard University and the University of Colorado — administered in 2015. The nationally representative survey was conducted online with 4,000 U.S. adults, including more than 1,500 who identified themselves as handgun owners. So back in 2015, we had 3 million that said they carried “every day” and another 6 million that carried something less than every day but at least monthly. A fair bit of this hinges on how you define “regular basis”. Personally I’d say that includes the 9 million who carry at least monthly, but YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Crazy\_Canuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crazy_canuck/32/5282_2.png) [@Crazy\_Canuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crazy_Canuck)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/144 "2018-03-15T19:56:39Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > So he was comparing the number of people killed in the states as opposed to the raw number in Canada. I was showing that the murder _rate_- which indeed \*is \*adjusted for population- does not show that great of a difference. Well, I think we might have to agree to disagree that an almost three hundred percent increase in the murder rate “does not how that great of a difference.” That said, I can see how others would be confused by me using absolute numbers and not ratios. Since I’m bored at the office and playing with numbers in Excel at least looks like work, here’s the breakdown. Canada - Population in 2015 is 35.85 million. 608 murders, 178 with firearms. The total murder rate is 1.696 / 100K, while the firearm murder rate is .497 / 100K and the non-firearm muder rate is 1.2 / 100K. US - Population in 2015 is 321.0 million. 15696 murders, 13286 with firearms. The total murder rate is 4.89 / 100K, while the firearm murder rate is 4.14 / 100K and the non-firearm murder rate is .75 / 100K. So in the states, you are 288.3% more likely to be murdered than in Canada, and 833.6% more likely to be murdered with a gun. This is somewhat balanced out by the fact that you are 159.8% more likely to be killed by something other than a gun in Canada. It still feels like a pretty big difference to me. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/145 "2018-03-15T20:08:09Z")
Earlier you said this: > [@Crazy\_Canuck](#): > > … Killing someone with a knife or your fists when you are close enough to look them in the eyes is much more psychologically difficult than pulling a trigger from a distance. … If I understand your stats correctly, that’s apparently not the case, at least in Canada. Our friendly northern neighbors seem more stabby-stabby than the rest of us. :eek: ETA: this post is intended as a light-hearted jest, I understand that the USA’s overall homicide rate is significantly higher than Canada’s. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/146 "2018-03-15T20:17:09Z")
> [@Crazy\_Canuck](#): > > Well, I think we might have to agree to disagree that an almost three hundred percent increase in the murder rate “does not how that great of a difference.” That said, I can see how others would be confused by me using absolute numbers and not ratios. Since I’m bored at the office and playing with numbers in Excel at least looks like work, here’s the breakdown. > > Canada - Population in 2015 is 35.85 million. 608 murders, 178 with firearms. The total murder rate is 1.696 / 100K, while the firearm murder rate is .497 / 100K and the non-firearm muder rate is 1.2 / 100K. > > US - Population in 2015 is 321.0 million. 15696 murders, 13286 with firearms. The total murder rate is 4.89 / 100K, while the firearm murder rate is 4.14 / 100K and the non-firearm murder rate is .75 / 100K. > > So in the states, you are 288.3% more likely to be murdered than in Canada, and 833.6% more likely to be murdered with a gun. This is somewhat balanced out by the fact that you are 159.8% more likely to be killed by something other than a gun in Canada. It still feels like a pretty big difference to me. Sure, but no where near the difference of 608 vs 13,286. ---
**Author:** ![WillReadmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/6f9a4e/32.png) [@WillReadmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillReadmore)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/147 "2018-03-15T20:54:47Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > There are something like 15 million CCW permit holders in the country, probably a million-ish LEOs, and I don’t know how many people who carry illegally. Do you know how many citizens there are? Have you done the division? ---
**Author:** ![Crazy\_Canuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crazy_canuck/32/5282_2.png) [@Crazy\_Canuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crazy_Canuck)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/148 "2018-03-15T21:09:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > If I understand your stats correctly, that’s apparently not the case, at least in Canada. Our friendly northern neighbors seem more stabby-stabby than the rest of us. :eek: Well, according to some people I know, some motherfuckers just need to die, and if you can’t get a gun you just have to work with what you have. As your infographic points out, we just don’t stab people for 38% of all our murders, we also beat people to death with our fists 24% of the time. Still, even given that, I still believe the lack of guns in Canada is a large part of the lower murder rate compared to the States, because killing someone is so much easier with a gun than a melee weapon. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Sure, but no where near the difference of 608 vs 13,286. That is an invalid difference that I never made. The proper comparison would be either 608 to 15696 (total deaths) or 178 to 13286 (gun deaths). Comparing total deaths in one country to gun deaths in another feels pretty disingenuous to me, so I’m going to throw a :dubious: at you and move on. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/149 "2018-03-15T21:28:25Z")
> [@WillReadmore](#): > > Do you know how many citizens there are? > > Have you done the division? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/150 "2018-03-15T21:31:26Z")
> [@Crazy\_Canuck](#): > > Well, according to some people I know, some motherfuckers just need to die, and if you can’t get a gun you just have to work with what you have. … You must have some interesting acquaintances. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/151 "2018-03-15T21:53:08Z")
> [@Crazy\_Canuck](#): > > That is an invalid difference that I never made. The proper comparison would be either 608 to 15696 (total deaths) or 178 to 13286 (gun deaths). Comparing total deaths in one country to gun deaths in another feels pretty disingenuous to me, so I’m going to throw a :dubious: at you and move on. Pretty small difference, but Ok, but comparing the raw numbers of two nations where one has ten times the population of the other is completely disingenuous.😛 Did you know that Canada had over 600 times more murder than Tonga? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/152 "2018-03-15T22:00:09Z")
I’ve realized that the overall death rate of Australia is not a particularly good data set to look at for this question. Here is the suicide rate by year: > **[Historical rate of death by suicide per 100,000 people, 1921 - 2010](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-08/suicide-historical-chart-fact-check/6834466)** > > ABC Fact Check determines the accuracy of claims by politicians, public figures, advocacy groups and institutions engaged in the public debate There is plausibly a decrease in rate that could be put on 1996. It’s small enough compared to historical fluctuations that I wouldn’t call it conclusive, particularly without knowledge of other things that could have affected the numbers around the same time. Unfortunately, we would really need more numbers from more countries, who also performed a widespread gun seizure, to see if there was a consistent adjustment of equalish size. In another couple of decades, we might be able to look back at the Australia data and see if the “default” value has changed. Looking at the historic data from 1900-2000, I’d guesstimate a quasi-default of about 12.5 as being the point at which the line is fluctuating. If the rate stays at the 10.5ish range for the next ~15 years, I’d be willing to say that something may have happened in the 1995-2000 time period to adjust the numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/153 "2018-03-15T22:22:30Z")
Here are the homicide metrics from Australia: > **[Fifteen things to know about Australia’s incredibly effective gun clampdown](https://qz.com/37303/fifteen-things-to-know-about-australias-incredibly-effective-gun-clampdown)** > > It came out of tragedy. In April 1996, a disturbed 28-year-old man named Martin Bryant killed 35 people with a semi-automatic rifle in the Tasmanian town of Port Arthur. It does look like there was some sort of fundamental shift in the murder rates, but it’s more back starting in 1987-1990 range rather than 1996. There was a spike of gun killings in 1996, but the general downward trend seems to have already been in place before that and the gun-homicide downslide is just as equally matched by the non-gun-homicide rate. This could just as easily be explainable by lead exhaust, which started to drop off in Australia starting around 1984: > **[Quantification of atmospheric lead emissions from 70 years of leaded petrol...](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231015300157)** > > Lead is a persistent pollutant and the subject of many environmental studies, yet, in Australia, the extent of atmospheric lead emissions from the use… ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/154 "2018-03-15T22:51:43Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Here are the homicide metrics from Australia: > > [Fifteen things to know about Australia’s incredibly effective gun clampdown](https://qz.com/37303/fifteen-things-to-know-about-australias-incredibly-effective-gun-clampdown/) > > It does look like there was some sort of fundamental shift in the murder rates, but it’s more back starting in 1987-1990 range rather than 1996. There was a spike of gun killings in 1996, but the general downward trend seems to have already been in place before that and the gun-homicide downslide is just as equally matched by the non-gun-homicide rate. > > This could just as easily be explainable by lead exhaust, which started to drop off in Australia starting around 1984: > > [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231015300157](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231015300157) From memory a similar trend pretty much happened world wide starting around that same timeframe, including in the US. I would say that in Australia it certainly helped that they put such heavy restrictions on firearms AND did a fairly wide scale buy back at that time. Your suicide numbers are a bit firmer, though as you noted it will still be some years before we know how rooted that trend is. I don’t know that a similar trend of world wide decline in suicides coincides with that time frame, so I think it’s a bit more solid. ---
**Author:** ![Crazy\_Canuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crazy_canuck/32/5282_2.png) [@Crazy\_Canuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crazy_Canuck)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/155 "2018-03-15T22:59:57Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Pretty small difference, but Ok [snip] It’s not the size of the difference, it’s that you were comparing apples to oranges in a way that was factually incorrect. If you want to get cranky with me because I called you out when you were wrong, the pit is down the hall. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/156 "2018-03-15T23:09:00Z")
@ **Crazy Canuck** I thought that your post #138 left out some pretty critical context as well, mostly in the last sentence. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2018, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/157 "2018-03-16T04:57:21Z")
Average population density in the US is ~85/sq.mi.; in Canada, it is 10.2. That probably makes a bit of a difference. If you have to go considerably farther to find someone to kill, you are not going to be killing as many people. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2018, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/158 "2018-03-16T13:48:37Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Average population density in the US is ~85/sq.mi.; in Canada, it is 10.2. That probably makes a bit of a difference. If you have to go considerably farther to find someone to kill, you are not going to be killing as many people. This is true for rural areas of Canada, but a pretty substantial part of Canada’s population lives in much denser areas than that. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2018, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/159 "2018-03-16T15:15:39Z")
The Canadian cities I’ve seen (quite a few) all seem about as dense as US ones. Got any cites that there’s a difference that matters? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2018, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491/160 "2018-03-16T22:06:04Z")
> [@XT](#): > > From memory a similar trend pretty much happened world wide starting around that same timeframe, including in the US. I would say that in Australia it certainly helped that they put such heavy restrictions on firearms AND did a fairly wide scale buy back at that time. Your suicide numbers are a bit firmer, though as you noted it will still be some years before we know how rooted that trend is. I don’t know that a similar trend of world wide decline in suicides coincides with that time frame, so I think it’s a bit more solid. It should also be noted that there were laws passed in the UK to prevent gun homicides in 1988 and 1997. If we look at their data, the homicide rate continued to rise until 2003. [http://www.citizensreportuk.org/news/2012/01/12/british-murders-2012-victims-of-murder-homicides-and-fatal-violence-mapped/](http://www.citizensreportuk.org/news/2012/01/12/british-murders-2012-victims-of-murder-homicides-and-fatal-violence-mapped/) But then in 2003 suddenly there was a strong pivot. Guns? Well, no, probably not. I think that it’s reasonable to assume that there are two paths that gun restrictions can act to prevent homicides committed with a gun; either the slow path, where gradually the weapons become unusable or lost, or the fast path, where someone decides they want to kill someone and go out to purchase a whole new instrument of death. In the slow case, you wouldn’t see a sharp turnaround in the data, just a gradual decline over the course of the following decade. In the fast case, you would expect to see a sharp effect immediately following the beginning of enforcement of the law. As best I can tell, there was no five year gap between the law being passed and enforcement beginning. On the other hand, there was a set of three strikes laws passed in the UK in 1999. I could see that taking a few years to start kicking in as it starts to filter the bad eggs out of the system. It could just as plausibly be down to that or something else besides. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-murder-and-or-death-rates-rise-or-lower-if-the-2nd-amendment-was-abolished/810491.md?page=9)