# Would nominating Sherrod Brown checkmate Trump in the Electoral College? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 21, 2019, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950 "2019-02-21T08:48:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2019, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/1 "2019-02-21T08:48:02Z")
My answer: close, but not quite. Here’s the only losing map for Brown I could even squint at and kindasorta imagine as semi-plausible: [https://twitter.com/SlackerInc/status/1098502220939780096](https://twitter.com/SlackerInc/status/1098502220939780096) Zero margin for error for the Trump campaign, unlike against any other Democratic nominee I can think of. And he’s acceptable to both the left wing and the more culturally conservative “beer track” union guys. The downside is Democrats give up a Senate seat, but as painful as that is, I think it still might be worth it. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2019, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/2 "2019-02-21T09:14:09Z")
And this is based on…what, exactly? Your assumption that Brown would carry Ohio and Michigan (but not Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, for some reason?). I like Brown a lot, but this analysis seems…less than rigorous. Also, I see from your Twitter icon that you’re a Deadhead. So now we can be friends. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2019, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/3 "2019-02-21T09:23:59Z")
This sounds a lot like the old “blue wall” theory. And I don’t think Ohio would be safe D in such an election either. It would be safer than with probably any other alternative but I don’t look at Brown’s 2018 re-election and see someone who is invincible in the state. Jim Renacci was practically invisible and got 46.6% of the vote. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2019, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/4 "2019-02-21T14:08:25Z")
Brown puts Ohio in play more than anyone else does but he does not confidently deliver it. There is no blue wall but there is a premise behind **SlackerInc** ’s thesis that is reasonable: the Democratic side [likeliest path to victory is “the Northern Path”](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/)- > [@538](#): > > … What is clear, though, is the importance of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (although you could also add Minnesota to the mix). Win all three of them — let’s call them the Northern Path — and Democrats don’t need Florida, assuming that they hold the other states. Lose all three, and even Florida wouldn’t be enough. Instead, they’d have to win Florida plus at least one of North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Georgia as part of what you might call a Sun Belt Strategy. > > Hillary Clinton’s problem was that Trump performed well in the Northern Path states — and she didn’t campaign in them enough — but at the same time, the Sun Belt Strategy wasn’t really ripe yet. … > > … the Northern Path is still the path of least resistance for a Democrat hoping to win the Electoral College. If Trump has lost the benefit of the doubt from voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, he may not have so much of an Electoral College advantage in 2020. Brown is one of the possible nominees with the best goods for performing strongest in the Northern Path. Likely ability to strongly deliver on that path should be a key metric in choosing a nominee. ---
**Author:** ![BlueOhio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/439d5e/32.png) [@BlueOhio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlueOhio)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2019, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/5 "2019-02-21T14:39:53Z")
Ohio keeps getting older and less educated. Brown taking it is not a given at all. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2019, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/6 "2019-02-21T16:19:18Z")
Count me in the camp that doesn’t understand why you concede that he can win PA and WI again, but don’t think he could do the same in MI (or possibly snag MN for that matter). ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2019, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/7 "2019-02-21T22:49:47Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > And this is based on…what, exactly? Your assumption that Brown would carry Ohio and Michigan (but not Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, for some reason?). > > I like Brown a lot, but this analysis seems…less than rigorous. > > Also, I see from your Twitter icon that you’re a Deadhead. So now we can be friends. 🙂 Right on. To clarify, I don’t think this map is the most likely one if it’s Brown v. Trump. The most likely one would IMO add several other states to Brown’s column. What I’m saying is that this strikes me as the most plausible map if Trump somehow pulls off another upset, even against Brown. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/8 "2019-02-22T01:13:40Z")
Looking at the Northern Path map, IMHO it sort of puts a ceiling on how well Trump can do. I think his ceiling is the 2016 map plus Minnesota. Is Sherrod Brown the candidate best positioned to succeed on this Northern Path? That remains to be seen, but I doubt being from Ohio would be that big of an advantage. I think that Trump has a floor as well as a ceiling, and Ohio is one of the states below the floor. I don’t see Trump losing Ohio under any but the most bizarre of circumstances. ETA. If Trump loses Ohio, that probably means he already lost in places like Florida, North Carolina, and maybe even Arizona and Texas. I’ll even go out on a limb and predict that Trump is going to do better in Ohio than he will in either Arizona or Texas. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/9 "2019-02-22T01:42:35Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Right on. To clarify, I don’t think this map is the most likely one if it’s Brown v. Trump. The most likely one would IMO add several other states to Brown’s column. What I’m saying is that this strikes me as the most plausible map if Trump somehow pulls off another upset, even against Brown. Gotcha. Like I was thinking “Isn’t it more likely the Dems would win PA and not MI?” But if that happened, they’d win, so… Anyway, I was going to say that I liked him but that giving up the Senate seat was a big deal. [But he’s not on board with Medicare For All,](https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/430419-sherrod-brown-pushes-for-medicare-buy-in-proposal-in-place-of) so he’s dead to me. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/10 "2019-02-22T03:12:33Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Gotcha. Like I was thinking “Isn’t it more likely the Dems would win PA and not MI?” But if that happened, they’d win, so… > > Anyway, I was going to say that I liked him but that giving up the Senate seat was a big deal. > > [But he’s not on board with Medicare For All,](https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/430419-sherrod-brown-pushes-for-medicare-buy-in-proposal-in-place-of) so he’s dead to me. He’s FOR getting everyone covered, he’s not against universal coverage. But he also knows what messaging works better in the North/Midwest/blue collar states, especially with blue collar union voters who often think a mad rush toward “socialized medicine” threatens the very nice benefits they’ve negotiated. My point is, he may not be signing on to one specific path to universal coverage, but that’s not the only (or even necessarily the best) path to that goal. If he’s a strong candidate to beat Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, saying that he’s dead to you because of one issue is a little ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/11 "2019-02-22T03:30:18Z")
It’s possible that Trump has a good shot to beat Brown in Ohio. But as I see it, under that theory of the case, he is virtually unstoppable against any other Democratic nominee. I’m saying that Brown is the only one who can potentially make a significant difference in the Electoral College due to which state he represents. Maybe I’m overlooking someone, but I sure can’t think who it would be. (Saying Biden would have a good shot at that Northern Path is the closest to it, but that’s still not about “flipping” a state due to his home state advantage.) ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/12 "2019-02-22T03:47:09Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > He’s FOR getting everyone covered, he’s not against universal coverage. But he also knows what messaging works better in the North/Midwest/blue collar states, especially with blue collar union voters who often think a mad rush toward “socialized medicine” threatens the very nice benefits they’ve negotiated. > > My point is, he may not be signing on to one specific path to universal coverage, but that’s not the only (or even necessarily the best) path to that goal. If he’s a strong candidate to beat Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, saying that he’s dead to you because of one issue is a little ridiculous. Well, of course that was hyperbole. I didn’t mean I will never consider voting for him under any circumstances. But I believe strongly that we have waited long enough for the healthcare we deserve in this country. And given that there are several strong candidates in the field who share that view, I’m not currently interested in supporting anyone who doesn’t. Come this time next year, if polls are showing him more likely than his rivals to beat Trump, he will have my undivided attention. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/13 "2019-02-22T03:51:47Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > It’s possible that Trump has a good shot to beat Brown in Ohio. But as I see it, under that theory of the case, he is virtually unstoppable against any other Democratic nominee. I’m saying that Brown is the only one who can potentially make a significant difference in the Electoral College due to which state he represents. Maybe I’m overlooking someone, but I sure can’t think who it would be. (Saying Biden would have a good shot at that Northern Path is the closest to it, but that’s still not about “flipping” a state due to his home state advantage.) I think you’re clearly right. None of the others represent a real swing State. Terry McAuliffe, I guess, but he’s not going anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/14 "2019-02-22T03:55:11Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > He’s FOR getting everyone covered, he’s not against universal coverage. But he also knows what messaging works better in the North/Midwest/blue collar states, especially with blue collar union voters who often think a mad rush toward “socialized medicine” threatens the very nice benefits they’ve negotiated. > > My point is, he may not be signing on to one specific path to universal coverage, but that’s not the only (or even necessarily the best) path to that goal. If he’s a strong candidate to beat Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, saying that he’s dead to you because of one issue is a little ridiculous. [To add some detail](https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/430419-sherrod-brown-pushes-for-medicare-buy-in-proposal-in-place-of) - he is against throwing out the Affordable Care Act and to expand Medicare to those 50 and over as a voluntary buy-in. > [@](#): > > “I want to help people now, and helping people now is building on the Affordable Care Act, not — not repealing ObamaCare, which is what they suggest,” he added. “It’s making sure we fix the consumer protections for pre-existing conditions.” The plan would be to further expand Medicare as the expansion succeeded. > [@](#): > > We will see the success of that, and that will end up continuing to broaden and expand coverage for so many Americans. It’s not just what works as messaging. It’s not just pragmatically deciding to go for a goal that might get passed. It’s what can work as something that can be successfully executed and help people who need help the fastest. And having the backbone to say it in a primary landscape that is not wanting to hear it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/15 "2019-02-22T04:12:30Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > … I’m saying that Brown is the only one who can potentially make a significant difference in the Electoral College due to which state he represents. … Brown’s Northern Path strength is based least on his home state and does not depend on bringing Ohio into the D column. If he does that, and he might, it would be icing on the cake. He has real cred with rural and working class voters of all sorts while also having a long history of real progressive bonafides. His connection to voters in MI, PA, WI, MN … is helped by being of the region perhaps, but it more is what his record is and how he approaches the issues. He is a candidate who can articulate progressive goals (and whop could actually execute them as President) who at the same time undercuts Trump’s strengths. His track record in support of universal coverage, for example, is deep and serious; it is not trendy and jumping on a bandwagon for soundbites. Here’s his [OnTheIssues](http://www.ontheissues.org/social/Sherrod_Brown_Health_Care.htm) report. Allow me to highlight his 100% rating by The American Public Health Association (APHA), the oldest and largest organization of public health professionals in the world. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/16 "2019-02-22T04:15:43Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [To add some detail](https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/430419-sherrod-brown-pushes-for-medicare-buy-in-proposal-in-place-of) - he is against throwing out the Affordable Care Act and to expand Medicare to those 50 and over as a voluntary buy-in. The plan would be to further expand Medicare as the expansion succeeded. > It’s not just what works as messaging. It’s not just pragmatically deciding to go for a goal that might get passed. It’s what can work as something that can be successfully executed and help people who need help the fastest. And having the backbone to say it in a primary landscape that is not wanting to hear it. Yes, agree wholeheartedly. I’m looking for a candidate that can win the votes of right people, not the most people. We won the most people last time, but lost where it mattered. As a self-employed 44-year-old father of two, I want European-style socialized medicine yesterday. But I’d rather have someone who can beat the shit out of Trump and actually get positive shit done than someone who squawks my deepest desires into the cold wind and farts angrily while they die a sorry death. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/17 "2019-02-22T05:06:17Z")
And can somebody help me with the pronunciation? For years, just seeing his name in print, I’ve pronounced it “shur-ROD.” Now I’m hearing it’s pronounced “SHARE-odd?” Is that right? It’s gonna take a while for _that_ to roll off my tongue. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/18 "2019-02-22T05:08:37Z")
Like Sharon but with a D. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/19 "2019-02-22T06:34:05Z")
Three comments: (1) Is it just a home-state advantage? Or would Brown’s status as an Ohioan carry over to Pennsylvania — still the swing state #1 in importance? Biden would have a huge home advantage in Pennsylvania, I think. How about Klobuchar? Would her popularity in Minnesota carry over into other Midwest states? (2) EVERY Democrat wants to work toward UHC. It’s a complex matter; soundbites aren’t the whole answer. Many smart people decided that ACA was the key first step. PLEASE don’t reject a candidate just because he or she doesn’t parrot the exact Sanders-AOC party line. (3) IIUC, the election of Brown would almost automatically cost the Dems a Senate seat. That is just too huge … unless you can prove that Brown would have significantly better November chance than anyone else. Can you? ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2019, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950/20 "2019-02-22T07:41:44Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Like Sharon but with a D. “Can I Speak To Your Manager” Sharon or Ariel Sharon? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominating-sherrod-brown-checkmate-trump-in-the-electoral-college/829950.md?page=2)