# Would nominee Romney win or lose MA **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 7, 2012, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055 "2012-03-07T18:24:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![TheonX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed8c4c/32.png) [@TheonX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheonX)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/1 "2012-03-07T18:24:16Z")
It might be a bit speculative at this point, but has anyone made a guess at whether Romney could carry his home state in a general election? Also, are there any modern occurrences of candidates loosing their home state? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/2 "2012-03-07T18:35:57Z")
> [@TheonX](#): > > Also, are there any modern occurrences of candidates loosing their home state? Gore lost Tennessee in 2000. I can’t think of a case where it happened to a winning candidate though. Romney is extremely unlikely to carry Mass. In polling on a one-on-one race there, Obama leads by an average of 19 points. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/3 "2012-03-07T18:36:06Z")
> [@TheonX](#): > > Also, are there any modern occurrences of candidates loosing their home state? do you mean to ask “lose their home state but win the election?” Because losing candidate lose their own state all the time. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/4 "2012-03-07T18:40:29Z")
If he wins Massachusetts, you’re looking at a landslide where Romney either wins every single state, or wins almost every state. In the real world, no, he’s not going to win Massachusetts. ---
**Author:** ![DianaG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7ab992/32.png) [@DianaG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DianaG)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/5 "2012-03-07T19:23:22Z")
Wait, I thought Michigan was his home state. Does he get more than one? That’s very Mormon of him. 😉 No, Romney doesn’t take Massachusetts. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/6 "2012-03-07T19:26:13Z")
> [@TheonX](#): > > Also, are there any modern occurrences of candidates loosing their home state? It depends on what you mean by “home state.” If you define it as the state where the candidate was born, then Bush I lost Massachusetts in 1988 and Bush II lost Connecticut in 2000 and 2004. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/7 "2012-03-07T19:55:21Z")
Mass. is a reliably Democratic state (just ask George McGovern) when it comes to Presidential campaigns. There is very, VERY little chance that, even as a former governor, Romney could carry it in November. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/8 "2012-03-07T20:02:07Z")
Candidates will affiliate themselves with as many states as they can in any way they can think of in the hopes they’ll get some more votes, but I doubt it really works. If you define home state as the state where the candidate lives or the state he’s most closely associated with, it’s been a long time since a candidate won the election while losing his home state. Arguably the only guys who have done it are Polk in 1844 and Wilson in 1916. The other possible entry is Nixon, who was elected president in 1968 while losing New York, where he was living at the time, but winning California, where he’d been governor and lived most of his life. If Romney is elected, he’s basically a sure bet to be added to this list. ---
**Author:** ![DianaG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7ab992/32.png) [@DianaG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DianaG)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/9 "2012-03-07T20:06:28Z")
Romney’s governorship wasn’t even a ringing endorsement. He was unchallenged in the primary and beat a rather spectacularly uninspiring opponent in the general (who still took 45%). ---
**Author:** ![conway](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ec9cab/32.png) [@conway](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/conway)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/10 "2012-03-07T21:14:50Z")
> [@](#): > > The other possible entry is Nixon, who was elected president in 1968 while losing New York, where he was living at the time, but winning California, where he’d been governor and lived most of his life. Nixon was in the House and Senate, but was never governor. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/11 "2012-03-07T21:21:49Z")
Ah, right, he got “kicked around” and lost that election. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/12 "2012-03-07T22:42:45Z")
> [@](#): > > Also, are there any modern occurrences of candidates loosing their home state? It’d take an awfully big bow, and I’m not sure how you’d even fletch a state to begin with. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/13 "2012-03-07T23:47:23Z")
Wouldn’t his [del]support for[/del] opposition to [del]Romneycare[/del] Obamacare count against him? Gosh, this is confusing. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/14 "2012-03-07T23:57:02Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It’d take an awfully big bow, and I’m not sure how you’d even fletch a state to begin with. Would it be easier to fletch or to felch a state? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2012, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/15 "2012-03-09T03:37:37Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Mass. is a reliably Democratic state (just ask George McGovern) when it comes to Presidential campaigns. MA went for Reagan twice, and more recently elected 4 straight Republican governors, including Romney. The McGovern vote is better explained by MA voters being _smarter_ than most. 😉 > [@](#): > > There is very, VERY little chance that, even as a former governor, Romney could carry it in November. Yes, but not because of his party affiliation. He has no chance here because we already know him the way the rest of the country is getting to know him. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2012, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/16 "2012-03-11T00:38:33Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Yes, but not because of his party affiliation. He has no chance here because we already know him the way the rest of the country is getting to know him. I have to think he would probably lose Massachusetts even if he were relatively popular. New York State is pretty similar to Massachusetts in terms of its governors - Pataki won three three terms starting in 1996 - but it went for the Democrats in every presidential election during that period, and if Pataki had won the nomination in 2008, he wouldn’t have won in New York. New York City hasn’t elected a Democrat mayor since 1989, but it’s a stronghold for Democrats on the presidential level. Federal elections and statewide elections aren’t necessarily related. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2012, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/17 "2012-03-11T01:59:30Z")
Exactly why I said “when it comes to Presidential campaigns.” A state which hasn’t been carried by a Republican candidate for President since 1984 is, IMHO, " reliably Democratic." ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2012, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/18 "2012-03-11T12:56:10Z")
It might be fair, at least in some ways, to call Romney the Republican Dukakis. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2012, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/19 "2012-03-12T01:28:56Z")
Of course, the typical New York City Republican is probably more liberal than, say, the typical Montana Democrat on most issues. The presidential race is pretty much the only time when different regional flavors of politics are compared directly against each other. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2012, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-nominee-romney-win-or-lose-ma/615055/20 "2012-03-12T02:00:08Z")
Obama won MA by 26 points. I seriously doubt there is any chance that the GOP will win it in 2012.