# Would real nation building have worked in Iraq in 2003? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 11, 2015, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301 "2015-06-11T23:41:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/81 "2015-06-14T17:49:58Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > So if the U.S. had selected more inclusive people, there would not have been sectarian violence in post-war Iraq? And that Iraqis would have rallied against AQI rather than having been further provoked against each other? If the U.S. had not disbanded the Iraqi military, leaving in place a trained, local force to prevent the looting and destruction of the nation, and then had not handed power over to Shiite partisans known to be corrupt, there is certainly a good chance that the Sunni/Shi’a conflicts that arose would have been more localized and less prone to spread and worsen. Once Chalabi had power, he was able to place enough of his partisans in control of enough of the country so that when he was replaced, their partisan feuds continued with the support of the next corrupt, (but still heavily Shiite), government. Could the U.S. have prevented every bad thing that has happened in Iraq. Short of not invading it, probably not. But certainly the U.S. actions contributed heavily to the utter breakdown. Even through today, Talabani and Masum, ignoring history for their own personal power, have continued championing Shiite power and control at the expense of the Sunnis, many of whom now view ISIS as the lesser of two unavoidable evils. Shiite militia who have attacked ISIS are reported to have looted Sunni communities and executed Sunni leaders after entering Sunni communities to “protect” them. That sort of conflict has direct roots in the way that the U.S. permitted Shiites to dominate Iraq rather than making at least some effort to bring Sunnis and Shiites together between 2003 and 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/82 "2015-06-14T18:24:40Z")
Well stated, but I do disagree. First, while I agree there’s an Iraqi identity, the country had even a recent history of division based on Shiite and Kurdish interests. The fact that Saddam kept it mostly under control is evidence of his repression (gassing thousands of Kurds, killing who knows how many Shiites in 1999) rather than the lack of division within the country. Even while the CPA was being formed, the disorder of society was starting to spill out. Even while the surge occurred, I still think the main reason that sectarian violence was decreased was that the virtual ethnic cleansing of cities and neighborhoods had been completed, not that more troops (both Iraqi and U.S.) meant better security. The idea that the U.S. could have handled things differently and there would have been less violence is, of course, speculation. We will never know the alternate history of Iraq. But I will engage in my own speculation: had we handled things differently, we would have been faced with different problems that probably would have been just as serious as those we did see. The idea that the U.S. would have been somewhat more like liberators had Rumsfeld et al not been in charge does not ring true for me at all. We so frequently hear critics saying that the fundamental problem with the Middle East is that imperialists drew the borders. I do not believe for a second that had more enlightened foreign powers drawn the borders in a somewhat more enlightened way that we would have a stable region today. Because fundamentally, conflicts are about interests that surpass the lines on a map, just like there isn’t a correct way for anyone to take an active hand to resolve the China/Taiwan issue, on an map or whatever. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/83 "2015-06-14T19:23:35Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > My thesis is that a sense of Iraqiness is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a stable _democratic_ state combining multiple powerful groups with diverging ethnic and religious identities. I think what you’re getting at is that they have to consider themselves Iraqis, AND put that identity as Iraqis first… ahead of their identity as Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, etc… as well as have a certain degree of confidence in the machinery of the state to govern and administer the law fairly and effectively. If a population self-identifies as something other than members of the state, and also has no confidence in the ability of the government to take care of business, you won’t have a very successful state, unless, that is, you have some kind of strongman or junta ruling things via raw force. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/84 "2015-06-14T19:26:02Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Well stated, but I do disagree. First, while I agree there’s an Iraqi identity, the country had even a recent history of division based on Shiite and Kurdish interests. The fact that Saddam kept it mostly under control is evidence of his repression (gassing thousands of Kurds, killing who knows how many Shiites in 1999) rather than the lack of division within the country. Even while the CPA was being formed, the disorder of society was starting to spill out. Even while the surge occurred, I still think the main reason that sectarian violence was decreased was that the virtual ethnic cleansing of cities and neighborhoods had been completed, not that more troops (both Iraqi and U.S.) meant better security. > > The idea that the U.S. could have handled things differently and there would have been less violence is, of course, speculation. We will never know the alternate history of Iraq. But I will engage in my own speculation: had we handled things differently, we would have been faced with different problems that probably would have been just as serious as those we did see. > . What are you trying to say? That Iraqi society had fissures pre invasion? Well no one is arguing againt that, every society on earth has them. And, lost in the whole “Saddam attacked Kurds and Shias” issue is the fact that he was at heart a Baathist, who distrusted religious types. The Baathist always were majoirty Shia, like Iraq itself. He surpressed plenty of Sunni parties which had secretarian agendas. And even many of the Shia/Kurd parties which were attacked were those with an avowedly secretarian oe ethnic agenda. The Dawa party which Maliki and Abadi were members of was founded by Sadr Snr and was pretty heavily secretarian. The PUK, which Talabani and now Masaum are from was a fairly ethnocentric party as well. Its people like this whom the US brought on to power. At the same time the US went after pretty much all those who were nationalistic, partly due to expediency, the initial years of the insurgency was heavily concentrated amongst nationalist types and former military men, ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/85 "2015-06-14T19:28:27Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The idea that the U.S. could have handled things differently and there would have been less violence is, of course, speculation. No, this is not idle speculation or 20 20 hindsight. It was bloody obvious at the time. Bremer and Slocomb’s arrogant decision making are clearly what turned a secular population, that was willing to work for a new Iraq, to flock to insurrectionist movements. The only resistance movements to flock to, were religious ones. Those movements were marginal before that time. Also, there should have been an immediate crack-down on the forming of the shiite mahdi-army of Al Sadr. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/86 "2015-06-14T20:19:36Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > No, this is not idle speculation or 20 20 hindsight. > It was bloody obvious at the time. Bremer and Slocomb’s arrogant decision making are clearly what turned a secular population, that was willing to work for a new Iraq, to flock to insurrectionist movements. The only resistance movements to flock to, were religious ones. Those movements were marginal before that time. You realize that the Kurds had effectively been operating their own state for years before the invasion, right? You honestly think they wanted to go back to being a minority again? ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/87 "2015-06-14T20:56:14Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The idea that the U.S. could have handled things differently and there would have been less violence is, of course, speculation. We will never know the alternate history of Iraq. But I will engage in my own speculation: had we handled things differently, we would have been faced with different problems that probably would have been just as serious as those we did see. Right, once that lying Bush and his gang led the people into war, it was always going to end in disaster. There was nothing we could do to save that poor country. AKA: Total denial ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/88 "2015-06-14T21:19:02Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > You realize that the Kurds had effectively been operating their own state for years before the invasion, right? You honestly think they wanted to go back to being a minority again? No, but Iraqi Kurdistan comprises only some 10% of the total territory. So it is not that representative of rest of the country. Probably it would have split off, in some sort of official manner, somewhere during the process. Or maybe Kurdish leadership would have deemed their people safer, in the long run, within a country that recognised certain special grants. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/89 "2015-06-14T21:35:00Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Even through today, Talabani and Masum, ignoring history for their own personal power, have continued championing Shiite power and control at the expense of the Sunnis, many of whom now view ISIS as the lesser of two unavoidable evils. Less anyone be confused, both named gentlemen above are Sunni Kurds. Their party the PUK as part of an overarching dominant Kurdish coalition including sometime rivals the KDP, tends to loosely back the leading Shi’a party Dawa as a matter of coalition politics. Masum was one of those who directly squeezed out the much maligned Dawa Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in favor of another ( but perhaps slightly more flexible ) Dawa insider, Haidar al-Abadi. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/90 "2015-06-14T21:37:50Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Less anyone be confused, both named gentlemen above are Sunni Kurds. Their party the PUK as part of an overarching dominant Kurdish coalition including sometime rivals the KDP, tends to loosely back the leading Shi’a party Dawa as a matter of coalition politics. Masum was one of those who directly squeezed out the much maligned Dawa Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in favor of another ( but perhaps slightly more flexible ) Dawa insider, Haidar al-Abadi. You’re not going to comment on the subject of this thread? I, for one, would sure like to hear what you think! ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/91 "2015-06-14T21:46:51Z")
I loosely worked with a former PUK sniper for a while. Holy smoke did those people have some ups and downs dangling on the stings of variable US policy (sometimes favouring/arming KDP sometimes PUK). I don’t think he was telling the truth al the time but if even part of it was accurate … hardy people, inc. the women. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/92 "2015-06-14T23:01:02Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Which was aided and abetted by American guns… or more accurately, the US just stood aside and said tsk tsk, while avowedly sectarian exiles lile Maliki and now Abadi took over and acted as they did. It would be like if the Chinese occupied the US and put the KKK in charge. > > I still recall reading about one Iraqi stating that US soldiers started asking people if they were Shia or Sunni, which Saddam’s men never did. True, but considering how many Sunni Iraqis regularly referred to Shia Iraqis as “Ajami” which means “Persians”. I’m not sure there’s a better way to demonstrate that they didn’t consider the Shia to be true Iraqis. That’s not to say that the Sunnis and Shia were always mortal enemies, but let’s not ignore reality. I’ll agree though, and think you would too that it’s a really difficult subject that is not going to be readily explained oin a brief post on a message board. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/93 "2015-06-14T23:14:57Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Right, once that lying Bush and his gang led the people into war, it was always going to end in disaster. There was nothing we could do to save that poor country. > > AKA: Total denial I have repeatedly said that Bush did not lie. So, another great argument of yours is in the books. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/94 "2015-06-15T00:21:29Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Well stated, but I do disagree. First, while I agree there’s an Iraqi identity, the country had even a recent history of division based on Shiite and Kurdish interests. The fact that Saddam kept it mostly under control is evidence of his repression (gassing thousands of Kurds, killing who knows how many Shiites in 1999) rather than the lack of division within the country. I have made no claim of Iraqi unity. I noted that with the removal of an indigenous force to suppress disorder, there was more destruction and more violence than might have occurred with such a policing force. > [@Ravenman](#): > > Even while the CPA was being formed, the disorder of society was starting to spill out. And the CPA was “being formed” in the absence of the controlling powers of the Iraqi army divisions that were sent home with no controlling discipline, but with their weapons. > [@Ravenman](#): > > Even while the surge occurred, I still think the main reason that sectarian violence was decreased was that the virtual ethnic cleansing of cities and neighborhoods had been completed, not that more troops (both Iraqi and U.S.) meant better security. Actually, a significant portion of the ethnic cleansing occurred simultaneously with the surge. That was one of the ironies of the reporting on the surge: the media reported the reduction in violence, but rarely noted that it was the lack of targets, (since people had been forced from their homes to live in similarly ethnic enclaves), that was a major reason for the falling violence. > [@Ravenman](#): > > The idea that the U.S. would have been somewhat more like liberators had Rumsfeld et al not been in charge does not ring true for me at all. There was never a time and never a circumstance in which the U.S. was going to have been perceived as “liberators” in the manner of that idiot Wolfowitz’s term paper. The U.S. was an invader. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/95 "2015-06-15T00:45:54Z")
Christ, it’s like you and I are arguing whether you got your chocolate in my peanut butter, or if I got my peanut butter in your chocolate. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/96 "2015-06-15T02:27:03Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Actually, a significant portion of the ethnic cleansing occurred simultaneously with the surge. Do you have a cite for that? I could be wrong, but my recollection is that the ethnic cleansing in Iraq was pretty much over by the time of “the Surge”-- that is, 2007 timeframe. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/97 "2015-06-15T02:45:39Z")
I may have confused the drop in violence, (based on ethnic cleansing), with the later reports of less violence at the same time as the surge. However, the following are examples of what I recall hearing (rarely) at the time. They was the sort of reports I recall. (And, as I noted, the MSM pretty much ignored the ethnic cleansing): [Study: Surge in ethnic cleansing led to reduced violence in Iraq.](http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2008/09/19/29444/study-ethnic-surge/) and, from [A Social History of the Surge](http://www.juancole.com/2008/07/social-history-of-surge.html), > [@](#): > > As best I can piece it together, what actually seems to have happened was that the escalation troops began by disarming the Sunni Arabs in Baghdad. Once these Sunnis were left helpless, the Shiite militias came in at night and ethnically cleansed them. Shaab district near Adhamiya had been a mixed neighborhood. It ended up with almost no Sunnis. Baghdad in the course of 2007 went from 65% Shiite to at least 75% Shiite and maybe more. My thesis would be that the US inadvertently allowed the chasing of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs out of Baghdad (and many of them had to go all the way to Syria for refuge). Rates of violence declined once the ethnic cleansing was far advanced, just because there were fewer mixed neighborhoods. Newsrack was among the first to make this argument, though I was tracking the ethnic cleansing at my blog throughout 2007. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/98 "2015-06-15T04:44:14Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > You’re not going to comment on the subject of this thread? I, for one, would sure like to hear what you think! Eh, we’ll never know. I think you’re probably loosely on target here… > [@John\_Mace](#): > > Possible, yes. Likely, no. I just might disagree a tad with the degree of difficulty. I think the pessimists in this thread are a little bit too pessimistic, I think the optimists are quite a bit too optimistic. What I’ll agree with many/most here is that the Bush administration could scarcely have done a worse job if they had tried. _Everything_ they touched turned to shit and pre-formed ideological blinders going in was only half of it. Even supposed partial triumphs like the “Sunni Awakening” were slippery slope disasters IMHO. A modern state that doesn’t have at least a semblance of a monopoly on force is more or less a failed state. When the current Iraqi regime is _dependent_ on military force provided by Sunni tribesmen, sectarian Shi’a militia, Kurdish Peshmerga, Iranian Pasdaran, U.S. air power and everything _but_ the apparently hapless Iraqi regular army - you have a complete failure. Iraq pre-Gulf War II was not a failed state. I think the odds you would have ended up with a fully functional democratic nation in the aftermath of the invasion are not great ( though not impossible ) no matter what the U.S. did. Unlike neighboring Iran, Iraq really doesn’t have a strong tradition of democratic institutions ( however flawed ) and that lack of institutional history is a hard thing to overcome. But even a semi-functional corrupt South Vietnamese-style kleptocracy would have been better than the collapsing pit of misery that is Iraq’s current configuration. _That_ at least should have been an achievable minimum. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/99 "2015-06-15T09:01:09Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > True, but considering how many Sunni Iraqis regularly referred to Shia Iraqis as “Ajami” which means “Persians”. The word Ajami does not mean Persian, it means “foreigner” or “barbarian” in the way the Greek word did - that is someone who is not speaking the Arabic. not that this improves the meaning. It is a usage like as when a French calls a Maghrebi or a African origin French native born French citizen “an immigrant.” ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301/100 "2015-06-15T10:58:38Z")
Real nation building wouldn’t of worked in Iraq, because Iran was determined to see it fail. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-real-nation-building-have-worked-in-iraq-in-2003/722301.md?page=6)