# Would Russia have failed in Afghanistan anyway ? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 19, 2015, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128 "2015-10-19T12:47:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2015, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/41 "2015-10-19T21:24:24Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > That isn’t a salient point. ALL wars are inhumane. But these three wars – Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan were wars of superpowers against small nations. The civilian toll was enormous. ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/42 "2015-10-19T21:31:00Z")
Adam Jones [discusses](http://www.amazon.com/Genocide-Comprehensive-Introduction-Adam-Jones/dp/041548619X) these wars as genocides. Of course, USA is responsible for many more civilian deaths then USSR, but both superpowers have dark history. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/43 "2015-10-20T00:24:11Z")
So if we had just ignored the soviets in Afghanistan, or played a containment strategy, they would have faltered after a decade and left when the Soviet Bloc fell apart ? In the meantime we could have left them killing off the religious zealots for ten years and saved us a whole lot of trouble and expense ? ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/44 "2015-10-20T00:27:50Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > So if we had just ignored the soviets in Afghanistan, or played a containment strategy, they would have faltered after a decade and left when the Soviet Bloc fell apart ? Definitely. Also without US help, USSR would have lost less soldiers in battle and Afghans would have lost less civilians. The three proxy wars (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan) between USSR and USA had tremendous cost for civilians. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/45 "2015-10-20T00:30:16Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > This isn’t the 1950s. By 1980, the risk of World War 3 was pretty low, and the global system did a decent job of containing non-state actors. I dunno, if someone had said in 1980 “We could proceed with Operation Cyclone and run a 90% risk that within 25 years, there will be a major terrorist attack on our soil that will kill 3000 Americans and cost the economy $1-2 trillion, or keep the status quo with a 0.1% risk that within 25 years, there will be a major thermonuclear exchange (possibly started by accident) that will kill 200 million Americans and destroy the economy as we know it…” I’m just following the OP’s lead in that we should judge the situation with hindsight - with the possibility of no Gorbachev, no _glasnost_, no Soviet collapse, and the ever-present risk of another _Able Archer_ fuckup. ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/46 "2015-10-20T00:40:33Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I dunno, if someone had said in 1980 “We could proceed with Operation Cyclone and run a 90% risk that within 25 years, there will be a major terrorist attack on our soil that will kill 3000 Americans and cost the economy $1-2 trillion, or keep the status quo with a 0.1% risk that within 25 years, there will be a major thermonuclear exchange (possibly started by accident) that will kill 200 million Americans and destroy the economy as we know it…” > > I’m just following the OP’s lead in that we should judge the situation with hindsight - with the possibility of no Gorbachev, no _glasnost_, no Soviet collapse, and the ever-present risk of another _Able Archer_ fuckup. If we’re going to discuss the notion of “fuckups,” then the Russians still have their nukes, and there’s far more possibility of a “fuckup” now then under the Soviets. So, nobody has eliminated the threat of an accidental nuclear exchange. Absolutely nothing was gained and the risk of a “fuckup” is much worse (not to mention the risk of loose nukes, which is also significantly worse). As for the risk of an intentional nuclear exchange, I don’t see that it’s significantly better or worse than before. It’s not like we’re buddy-buddy with the Rusians, and we have foreign policy goals that conflict with the Russians, just like we did with the Soviets. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/47 "2015-10-20T00:50:30Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > Definitely. Also without US help, USSR would have lost less soldiers in battle and Afghans would have lost less civilians. > > The three proxy wars (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan) between USSR and USA had tremendous cost for civilians. Or you might have added five years on to the collapse date because they didn’t have the war costs. So, all this crap we’ve had because we couldn’t wait five more years. Definitely not worth it. So Brzezinski’s an idiot and all he achieved was a 3 trillion dollar war bill and loss of Western civil liberties ? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/48 "2015-10-20T01:25:30Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > But I’m still skeptical that the threat of creeping Islamic extremism was any sort of priority that prompted the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. If anything it was the wellspring of their problems in that regard. What prompted the Soviet invasion was Amin’s coup, in part because 1. Amin was pretty unstable and a bad leader 2. Amin had, after he took power, made overtures to the US and started criticizing the Soviets. 3. The KGB had been a big supporter of Parcham and outmaneuvered the army, which had supported Khalq. 4. Brezhnev had given a personal guarantee to Taraki that nothing would happen to him and that he’d be alright, and was furious that Amin killed him. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/49 "2015-10-20T01:43:34Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > So, nobody has eliminated the threat of an accidental nuclear exchange. I did not claim anyone had. I said the risk was reduced. Your argument does not convince me otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/50 "2015-10-20T01:48:36Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I did not claim anyone had. I said the risk was reduced. Your argument does not convince me otherwise. Ok, don’t be convinced. I’ve actually stated why I think the risk isn’t reduced, and you’ve provided absolutely no counter-argument. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/51 "2015-10-20T01:51:40Z")
The idea that we are now at a greater risk of nuclear war than we were in 1980 is totally bonkers. Totally, completely, throughly bonkers. But I take that assertion as just something silly that is thrown out in a heated Internet debate, like so as not to admit error. I have a really hard time seeing someone looking at the facts and historical context and coming to a considered opinion that we are closer to midnight today that during the time when the Soviet leadership was becoming convinced that the US was going to execute a surprise first strike for no reason at all. ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/52 "2015-10-20T01:55:31Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The idea that we are now at a greater risk of nuclear war than we were in 1980 is totally bonkers. Totally, completely, throughly bonkers. > > But I take that assertion as just something silly that is thrown out in a heated Internet debate, like so as not to admit error. I have a really hard time seeing someone looking at the facts and historical context and coming to a considered opinion that we are closer to midnight today that during the time when the Soviet leadership was becoming convinced that the US was going to execute a surprise first strike for no reason at all. Is this aimed at me? Because if it is, it’s completely non-responsive to anything I’ve actually said. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/53 "2015-10-20T02:03:28Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > If we’re going to discuss the notion of “fuckups,” then the Russians still have their nukes, and there’s far more possibility of a “fuckup” now then under the Soviets. So, nobody has eliminated the threat of an accidental nuclear exchange. Absolutely nothing was gained and the risk of a “fuckup” is much worse (not to mention the risk of loose nukes, which is also significantly worse). > > As for the risk of an intentional nuclear exchange, I don’t see that it’s significantly better or worse than before. It’s not like we’re buddy-buddy with the Rusians, and we have foreign policy goals that conflict with the Russians, just like we did with the Soviets. I was referring to this whole post. Bonkers. ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/54 "2015-10-20T02:05:40Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I was referring to this whole post. > > Bonkers. Uh, no, the only thing bonkers here is your posts. And none of what you said actually responds to my arguments. I’m not going to play a game with you where you make up some extreme version of my arguments in your head and then argue against that. If you’re not going to actually address my points, then don’t respond to me. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/55 "2015-10-20T10:56:08Z")
So give your best estimate as to when the Soviets would have had to pack up and leave. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/56 "2015-10-20T11:25:10Z")
No clue. What do you think? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/57 "2015-10-20T12:53:30Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > Adam Jones [discusses](http://www.amazon.com/Genocide-Comprehensive-Introduction-Adam-Jones/dp/041548619X) these wars as genocides. Of course, USA is responsible for many more civilian deaths then USSR, but both superpowers have dark history. I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. Every nation that’s ever gone to war has blood on its hands. > [@CCitizen](#): > > Definitely. Also without US help, USSR would have lost less soldiers in battle and Afghans would have lost less civilians. > > The three proxy wars (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan) between USSR and USA had tremendous cost for civilians. You have an unconventional definition of genocide. [Adam Jones](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Jones_(Canadian_scholar)) seems to be a one trick pony on the subject and I’m not sure many share his obsessive focus on calling every conflict a genocide. BTW, he also seems to be be heavily invested in the subject of gendercide and the fact that not enough attention has been paid to the death toll of men in wars. So it’s telling that you’d be attracted to his views. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/58 "2015-10-20T13:37:52Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > . And none of what you said actually responds to my arguments. > > I’m not going to play a game with you where you make up some extreme version of my arguments in your head and then argue against that. If you’re not going to actually address my points, then don’t respond to me. \*If we’re going to discuss the notion of “fuckups,” then the Russians still have their nukes, and **there’s far more possibility of a “fuckup” now then under the Soviets**. Just simply untrue for a variety of reasons, but let’s just mention one. Detargeting. Launch a missile 20 years ago and it was headed for a pre-determined target without further intervention. Today, launch that same missile and it’s headed off somewhere harmless. Someone would have to make the decision to target the missile at the other side, meaning that an accidental launch would not likely start WWIII. - So, nobody has **eliminated** the threat of an accidental nuclear exchange. “Eliminated” is a bogus standard. The odds of accidental launch are much less for many reasons, among them that the active strategic nuclear stockpile of each country is about a tenth of what it was just before the end of the Cold War. - Absolutely nothing was gained and **the risk of a “fuckup” is much worse (not to mention the risk of loose nukes**, which is also significantly worse). Rediculous. A huge amount was gained, and the idea of “loose nukes” is one of those sexy ideas that is great for movies and such, but isn’t a major national security concern for either country. That’s because billions of U.S. dollars were spent on the Cooperative Threat Reduction program to buy up hundreds of tons of fissile material, remove weapons from several FSU states, increase security at existing nuclear facilities, finding employment for former Soviet nuclear workers, and many other tasks. - As for the risk of an intentional nuclear exchange, **I don’t see that it’s significantly better or worse than before**. I can only imagine that you were not aware of current events during the Cold War, including during the Reagan years. This statement is just so far out of touch, I’m not sure it’s worth commenting on much further – it’s like spending effort to try to dispel the notion that China’s economic growth over the last few decades has impacted its political realities. - It’s not like we’re buddy-buddy with the Rusians, and **we have foreign policy goals that conflict with the Russians, just like we did with the Soviets**. The main difference being that today we are arguing over Syria, in which neither country really wants to get all that involved but is kind of being sucked in anyway, and during the Cold War we were mortal fucking enemies, plotting for the complete destruction of the other by any variety of means. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/59 "2015-10-20T13:56:07Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > No clue. What do you think? Estimate +/- 10 years I estimate based on no relevant knowledge whatsoever 1997 ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/60 "2015-10-20T14:04:30Z")
I think one of the unpredictable factors is that aside from the cost of the Afghanistan war, the pace of domestic reforms in the Soviet Union was accelerating. I find it very hard to disentangle the prospects of the Soviet Union crumbling because of all these various problems (war, poor economy with increasing defense spending on the arms race, etc) with the growing domestic calls to change more things. So what I’m saying is, the Soviet Union just might have fallen apart before an opportunity to pacify Afghanistan ever presented itself. Then again, maybe Gorbachev would have been disposed of for someone more hardline, too. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128.md?page=4)