# Would Russia have failed in Afghanistan anyway ? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 19, 2015, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128 "2015-10-19T12:47:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/101 "2015-10-20T20:08:56Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > I am neither Russian nor American – I am Jewish. Both USSR and USA have many dark pages in their history. But the Cold War was the fault of the West, right? Because of all that capitalist aggression going on all up in Stalin’s grill from 1945 to 1949? ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/102 "2015-10-20T20:10:17Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > But the Cold War was the fault of the West, right? Because of all that capitalist aggression going on all up in Stalin’s grill from 1945 to 1949? I do not know whose fault it was. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/103 "2015-10-20T20:10:26Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > They were never a part of USSR. I stand corrected. I meant part of the Eastern block. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/104 "2015-10-20T20:11:37Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > In USA today 160,000 people are serving life imprisonment, and there are about 100,000 Supermax prisoners. Yup, and that’s bad. Our prison system itself is bad in fact, and we incarcerate a huge number of citizens, one of the largest per capita on earth in fact. And there is definitely a racial component to that, as well as our stupid War on Drugs™ epic fail that’s put millions in prison over the years. However, it’s really not comparable to the Soviet gulags which incarcerated 10’s of millions, many just ordinary citizens in truly horrific conditions and causing the deaths of literally millions, if not 10’s of millions, whether you want to accept that or not. Pointing out how bad the US is doesn’t detract from the fact that Soviet era Russia was a dysfunctional hell hole for many, many Russians, and that the Soviets killed 10’s of millions of their own citizens, let alone other peoples. It was a true blight on the planet and we are collectively well rid of them. Now, if only the CCP would fold as well, and perhaps Lil’ Kimmy and his merry men pose for gun fire against some nice wall… ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/105 "2015-10-20T20:14:04Z")
> [@XT](#): > > However, it’s really not comparable to the Soviet gulags which incarcerated 10’s of millions The incarceration rate in Stalin’s USSR was very high – at peaks reaching the levels of incarceration in Louisiana, TX, Mississippi now. The peak was in 1950, when 2.7 million people were incarcerated. Every incarceration without severe guilt is a tragedy. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/106 "2015-10-20T20:16:56Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > The incarceration rate in Stalin’s USSR was very high – at peaks reaching the levels of incarceration in Louisiana, TX, Mississippi now. The peak was in 1950, when 2.7 million people were incarcerated. > > Every incarceration without severe guilt is a tragedy. Leaving aside the apples to bananas comparison between a small US state and a huge continent spanning superpower over decades compared to a small time window of ‘now’, where are the stats you are getting this from? Do you have, you know, a cite for this assertion? ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/107 "2015-10-20T20:18:22Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Leaving aside the apples to bananas comparison between a small US state and a huge continent spanning superpower, where are the stats you are getting this from? Do you have, you know, a cite for this assertion? I have read detailed history not by Communists but by those who oppose Communism – detailed studies of GULAG. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/108 "2015-10-20T20:21:36Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > I have read detailed history not by Communists but by those who oppose Communism – detailed studies of GULAG. That’s nice. Can you cite what you read, give page numbers and quotations with supporting evidence? Or should we just accept that you read it and it says what you assert? Because so far, you haven’t given me, at least, a lot of confidence in your assertions, since many of them look to be Soviet apologist type stuff. You don’t have to BE a Russian or even a communist to be an apologist btw. ---
**Author:** ![CCitizen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@CCitizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CCitizen)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/109 "2015-10-20T20:25:26Z")
> [@XT](#): > > That’s nice. Can you cite what you read, give page numbers and quotations with supporting evidence? Or should we just accept that you read it and it says what you assert? Because so far, you haven’t given me, at least, a lot of confidence in your assertions, since many of them look to be Soviet apologist type stuff. > > You don’t have to BE a Russian or even a communist to be an apologist btw. The [Gulag was horrible](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Gulag_Prisoner_Stats_1934-1953.PNG), but the mythical numbers are not reality. I am definitely not Communist. In Russia today, Communists can never get more then 20% of votes – Vladimir Putin gets \>60%. Most of people in Russia do not want GULAG to return. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/110 "2015-10-20T20:27:04Z")
> **[Comparison of United States incarceration rate with other countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_United_States_incarceration_rate_with_other_countries)** > > In 2021, the United States had 1,767,200 inmates in adult facilities (prisons and jails). This left America with the highest prison population if China's latest official number (2018) of 1,690,000 (sentenced prisoners only) were used. According to the World Prison Brief the total number in China would be much higher if pre-trial detainees and those held in administrative detention were added, and yet more depending on the number of Uyghurs being held. The 2021 US incarceration rate of 531 p Compa... > [@](#): > > The US incarceration rate peaked in 2008 when about 1 in 100 US adults was behind bars.[[28]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_United_States_incarceration_rate_with_other_countries#cite_note-nytimes2008feb-28) This incarceration rate exceeded the average incarceration levels in the [Soviet Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union) during the existence of the infamous [Gulag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulag) system, when the [Soviet Union’s population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_Soviet_Union) reached 168 million, and 1.2 to 1.5 million people were in the [Gulag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulag) prison camps and colonies (i.e. about 0.8 imprisoned per 100 USSR residents, according to numbers from [Anne Applebaum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Applebaum) and [Steven Rosefielde](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Rosefielde)).[[38]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_United_States_incarceration_rate_with_other_countries#cite_note-38)[[39]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_United_States_incarceration_rate_with_other_countries#cite_note-39) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/111 "2015-10-20T20:40:29Z")
> [@CCitizen](#): > > The [Gulag was horrible](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Gulag_Prisoner_Stats_1934-1953.PNG), but the mythical numbers are not reality. > > I am definitely not Communist. > > In Russia today, Communists can never get more then 20% of votes – Vladimir Putin gets \>60%. Most of people in Russia do not want GULAG to return. That’s the same Wiki cite you used before (well, it’s a graph linked on that same cite). It’s also disputed by several other sources and is hardly authoritative. Good grief, this should be an easy one as all you have to do is Google ‘more prisoners in the US than Soviet gulag’ to get a ton of links. You claim you have extensively read about this but when asked for cites you go to the same Wiki link you originally posted that doesn’t demonstrate what you are claiming! :smack: ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/112 "2015-10-20T20:42:29Z")
Step forth with the true numbers. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/113 "2015-10-20T20:46:42Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > [Comparison of United States incarceration rate with other countries - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_United_States_incarceration_rate_with_other_countries) Yeah, though the [current rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States#/media/File:U.S._incarceration_rates_1925_onwards.png) has fallen to a touch more than .9 and still dropping. A lot of that is definitely the War on Drugs™, though there is zero doubt that we lock up a hell of a lot of our own citizens. I have my doubts we are number one, even wrt per capita, since I think there are a lot of countries that under-report their actual rates, but we are certainly in the top 5 if not the top 2 or 3. Something we, as Americans can all be proud of, no doubt. 😛 Of course, the rate per capita doesn’t tell the whole story wrt a comparison between the US rate and the old Soviet gulags. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/114 "2015-10-20T20:52:43Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > Step forth with the true numbers. No one really knows the ‘true numbers’. They range from the low end (which is what CCitizen is trying to pedal) to much higher…such as this from the Encyclopedia Britannia: > [@](#): > > At its height the Gulag consisted of many hundreds of camps, with the average camp holding 2,000–10,000 prisoners. Most of these camps were “corrective labour colonies” in which prisoners felled timber, laboured on general construction projects (such as the building of canals and railroads), or worked in mines. Most prisoners laboured under the threat of starvation or execution if they refused. It is estimated that the combination of very long working hours, harsh climatic and other working conditions, inadequate food, and summary executions killed off at least 10 percent of the Gulag’s total prisoner population each year. Western scholarly estimates of the total number of deaths in the Gulag in the period from 1918 to 1956 range from 15 to 30 million. I could give you a Google link spew if you really want, but MY point was that CCitizen is making a hell of a lot of assertions with almost zero citations to back them up, simply repeating the same ones (without bothering to quote what s/he feels are the relevant parts, just drive by links). ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 9:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/115 "2015-10-21T09:35:21Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > That isn’t what you said. You were chaffed that I didn’t respond to your specific comments. So I took that as an invitation to pick them apart. > > If you don’t want to debate something anymore, here’s a pro tip: you don’t need to announce that you’re not debating something anymore. One can always just remain silent and let the other person have the last word. Bonkers! Meh. I think we could have had an interesting discussion here, because you are knowledgeable about the topic, but I’m not interested now. From now on, any time you respond to me, not only in this thread but any other thread, my only response will be “bonkers!” But I have a lot of work coming in this week, so I might not peruse the thread anyway. So, you will probably have the last word if you really need to have it. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/116 "2015-10-23T17:08:25Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > India, of course, wouldn’t have intervened (why would they want the headache), but they could have denounced the Soviet invasion (and the Soviets did tend to be kind of sensitive to international publicity issues, particular when it came to their allies) and they could have denied Soviets refueling or basing opportunities during a Soviet-led invasion. Why would the Soviets want to piss off an ally to attempt something that would certainly be a military disaster for them. These arguments aren’t persuasive to me. Why would India _oppose_ a Soviet occupation of Pakistan? Other than its general distaste for offensive military action (which it conveniently forgot during the invasion of Goa), there was no reason. It would neutralize Pakistan as a belligerent and allow India to redeploy its own forces to the Chinese border, and the Soviets would certainly have acceded to Indian demands to annex Pakistani-held areas of Kashmir. At worst, India might have to worry about Pakistani irregular forces hiding in Kashmir while raiding Soviet military installations and so on, but that happens all the time in reverse anyway. I was Indira, I would be cheering a Soviet invasion privately even if I was denouncing it publicly. ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/117 "2015-10-25T08:00:51Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Why would India _oppose_ a Soviet occupation of Pakistan? Other than its general distaste for offensive military action (which it conveniently forgot during the invasion of Goa), there was no reason. > > It would neutralize Pakistan as a belligerent and allow India to redeploy its own forces to the Chinese border, and the Soviets would certainly have acceded to Indian demands to annex Pakistani-held areas of Kashmir. > > At worst, India might have to worry about Pakistani irregular forces hiding in Kashmir while raiding Soviet military installations and so on, but that happens all the time in reverse anyway. > > I was Indira, I would be cheering a Soviet invasion privately even if I was denouncing it publicly. If you want all the reasons why India would have opposed an invasion, I can give them to you. But, keep in mind, that no country wants chaos on its borders (which and invasion of Pakistan would have certainly produced) and no country wants an influx of refugees (which it also would have produced). Plus, India and Pakistan were still operating under the framework of the Simla Agreement at this time. There’s no way they would have supported it. ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/118 "2015-10-25T08:11:57Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > Bonkers! > > Meh. I think we could have had an interesting discussion here, because you are knowledgeable about the topic, but I’m not interested now. From now on, any time you respond to me, not only in this thread but any other thread, my only response will be “bonkers!” > > But I have a lot of work coming in this week, so I might not peruse the thread anyway. So, you will probably have the last word if you really need to have it. After thinking about this some more, I think the problem **Ravenman** is that you and I are running different alternate history timelines here. I’m not sure how to resolve that, but I do think the info you have on de-targeting and the like is useful, so if you want to expand on that, I think it’s useful info. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/119 "2015-10-25T12:23:10Z")
The Russian invasion of Afghanistan was to prevent a puppet government from falling. The Russians were afraid that Muslim nationalism would spread from Afghanistan to the Central Asian (Muslim) republics. So, in a way, it was the logical response of a failing regime. As far as brutality went, the Russians were bad, but nothing like what Stalin would have done. Of course,as with all foreign incursions in the country, it was doomed to fail-it could only “work” if large segments of the population were killed or locked up in prison camps. It should have been a lesson for the USA-of course, we don’t like to learn from history-we prefer to repeat the same mistakes, over and over.:smack: ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128/120 "2015-10-25T13:32:31Z")
> [@BrightNShiny](#): > > After thinking about this some more, I think the problem **Ravenman** is that you and I are running different alternate history timelines here. I’m not quite clear what you mean by that. I’m looking at what actually happened between the early 1980s until today. I’m not speculating on anything, and it didn’t seem to me that you were either. Why did you have in mind? > [@](#): > > I’m not sure how to resolve that, but I do think the info you have on de-targeting and the like is useful, so if you want to expand on that, I think it’s useful info. This isn’t on detargeting, but the Nunn-Lugar program has provided huge benefits to de-escalation: > **[Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nunn%E2%80%93Lugar_Cooperative_Threat_Reduction)** > > As the collapse of the Soviet Union appeared imminent, the United States and their NATO allies grew concerned of the risk of nuclear weapons held in the Soviet republics falling into enemy hands. The Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program was initiated by the Nunn–Lugar Act (really the Soviet Nuclear Threat Reduction Act of 1991), which was authored and cosponsored by Sens. Sam Nunn (D-GA) and Richard Lugar (R-IN). The purpose of the CTR Program was originally "to secure and dismantle weapons... [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-russia-have-failed-in-afghanistan-anyway/735128.md?page=7)