# Would would a true "World" War be like? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 27, 2022, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646 "2022-11-27T22:19:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JFKWasOpenMinded](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jfkwasopenminded/32/12696_2.png) [@JFKWasOpenMinded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JFKWasOpenMinded)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2022, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/21 "2022-11-28T19:31:30Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > All those other ‘wars’ lead to ‘kinetic war’ if the countries affected feel enough pain. Oh its certainly possible, even probable, but it isnt guaranteed for example the Cold War. There was fighting but nothing direct between the two powers. This was mainly due to neither side accepting the outcome of a nuclear exchange, and we still see this today. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Oil embargoes of Japan of the 1930’s led directly to Pearl Harbor. ‘Phony’ wars are usually what take place while one side or both rapidly prepare to fight a real one. As Will Rogers said, “The art of diplomacy is saying, ‘nice doggy’ until you can find a stick.” I agree with what you say here, but my argument is what defines a “stick” nowadays. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > And once total war begins, it can be nearly impossible to stop until one side is so crushed it can’t continue the fight. It’s getting harder in the technological era to fight to a stalemate like WWI. Our weapons reach behind enemy lines and across the globe, allowing warfare to continue even when fronts of battle are stalled. These same weapons, the advancement of such, is exactly why conventional fighting is so difficult between the great powers. The threat of a nuclear exchange is what keeps the 101st from stepping out of Poland and into Ukraine. The escalation risk is just to real, so new fronts must be opened up. I dont know if these new fronts, economic, cyber, the advancement of AI and drones, maybe robotics, propaganda etc, must lead to kinetic war. I would argue it doesnt have to. I think its possible to have a ww3 where even the Marines are sidelined. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2022, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/22 "2022-11-28T19:48:27Z")
Like “World Series”, “World War” is a bit of a hyperbolic phrase. Call me when Mars attacks. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2022, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/23 "2022-11-28T20:34:07Z")
Roosevelt and Churchill (and perhaps Stalin) named WWII, and therefore, WWI. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2022, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/24 "2022-11-28T21:29:19Z")
I thought it was TIME magazine. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2022, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/25 "2022-11-28T21:29:28Z")
Consider this idea : **Global Civil War.** Social Group vs Group. Religion vs Religion. Mass Class Warfare. Silly? It sure was. Now we have the Internet. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2022, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/26 "2022-11-28T22:36:22Z")
Perhaps Roosevelt saw the story before publication. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2022, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/27 "2022-11-29T17:48:00Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > Consider this idea : **Global Civil War.** > Social Group vs Group. > Religion vs Religion. > Mass Class Warfare. > > Silly? > It sure was. > Now we have the Internet. Haven’t we already had global civil wars? Imperialism vs communism for example. I’d consider that a global civil war. The 1848 revolutions, the cold war, etc. Or the war between the right (who support traditionalism, social hierarchies, etc) and the left (who support egalitarianism and more equitable social systems). Much of the mideast and west are undergoing strife due to these battles. Or the battle between authoritarianism and pro-democracy movements. Those are global civil wars spanning across cultures and nations ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2022, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/28 "2022-11-29T22:22:14Z")
There would almost certainly be opposing nuclear powers, and this nuclear armageddon is the likely result. I can’t imagine a scenario where one side lacks a nuclear armed power given that the strongest non-nuclear powers include the likes of Turkey, Germany, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea\*\*. What alternate scenarios are there for a nuclear power to lose a conventional war on its own territory without using nukes? They can accept defeat while refusing to use nukes. The top brass could order the use of nukes but with the guys who actually push the red button refuse to do so. There could be an internal revolution in the losing country(ies) with the new government surrendering without using nukes. Some kind of advanced cyber attack could be used to disable the nukes of the losing side. All those scenarios sound far fetched to me. So yeah, we would most likely be looking at nuclear annihilation. \*\*. I left off Israel and Iran due to the uncertain status of whether or not they have nukes. ---
**Author:** ![Saffer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saffer/32/6440_2.png) [@Saffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saffer)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/29 "2022-12-01T10:51:22Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Aren’t we rather ignoring the elephant in the room, here? What would that be? ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/30 "2022-12-01T15:22:24Z")
Does the elephant have nukes? ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/31 "2022-12-01T18:01:49Z")
The elephant gave up its nukes to the Bear in exchange for what turned out 26 years later to be a piece of paper Putin used to wipe his ass. > **[Budapest Memorandum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum)** > > The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three substantially identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The three memoranda were originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and... I imagine some regret that decision. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2022, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/32 "2022-12-01T18:34:26Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > The elephant gave up its nukes to the Bear in exchange for what turned out 26 years later to be a piece of paper Putin used to wipe his ass. > > I imagine some regret that decision. It probably would have been difficult if not impossible for the former Soviet republics to maintain functional nuclear arsenals. Nukes don’t just sit on the shelf forever. ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2022, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/33 "2022-12-02T00:50:52Z")
Sorry. Had to take > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > But we are no longer in the bipolar world of the Cold War, or the unipolar world of the 1990-2010 (roughly speaking) where the United States enjoyed uncontested status as the premier military power and leading technical economy. I would argue that due to the previous administration’s actions, the United States has lost the majority of it’s “soft power,” (non-military methods of influence) while other ‘polar contenders’ have made meaningul inroads on expanding theirs (e.g. Chinese & Russian economic/diplomatic investment into Africa and South America, alongside the former’s development into asymmetrical warfare). That re-balancing of the “soft power” scales tends to make it _less_ unipolar than it used to be, which makes me agree with you. I think just how far ahead the US is in the ‘unipolar lead’ compared to other contenders, or even _regional_ superpowers warrants some hefty discussion. > [@JFKWasOpenMinded](#): > > Does WW3 have to be a kinetic war like the two previous? > [@JFKWasOpenMinded](#): > > I mean Clausewitz defined war as politics by other means, Sun Tzu considered flawless victory to be speedy and without bloodshed. War to these two authorities was bending your opponent to your will. I dunno if they would agree “war” is condensed strictly down to kinetic fighting. Putting two quotes together for one answer, I would submit that _yes_, a World War would have to go kinetic for any meaningful resolution. You’re right that Clausewitz defined war as an extension of politics, and I would submit that ‘contests’ short of bullets being flung allow adversaries’ political structures/regimes to adapt and change as necessary to stay in power. The only true way (so far) to change a political situation is by lethal force. You can apply all the economic/informational/diplomatic leverage you want, but those alone can’t guarantee a political change (I’m looking at you, North Korea). Effective change comes to those with a monopoly on the use of force, whether it be from an outside power, or revolution from within. That was kinda longwinded. . . that’s what I get for disjointed replies. I started the draft two days ago, and sat on it, accidentally hitting ‘Reply’ before finishing my thoughts. Tripler Then there was coffee at work today. _Lots_ of coffee… ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2022, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/34 "2022-12-02T01:44:11Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > It probably would have been difficult if not impossible for the former Soviet republics to maintain functional nuclear arsenals. Nukes don’t just sit on the shelf forever. True enough, the economic cost of maintaining a nuclear arsenal is extremely high (and often overlooked), and the political cost in the pressure that would be brought on former Soviet republics for refusing to sing the NPT would have been enormous. Nevertheless, as North Korea has shown, it’s possible to be an economic basket case and have nukes if the will is there. I’m certainly not arguing that a Ukraine that refused to give up its nukes in 1994 would have been a good thing or actually preferable to the way things are now, but there is a bitter irony that Ukraine at one time became the world’s 3rd greatest nuclear power overnight when it inherited about a third of the former Soviet arsenal and gave it up on the promise that Russia wouldn’t do exactly what it is did in 2014 and is again doing now. The same sort of irony that the 9 Tu-160 strategic bombers it had inherited but couldn’t really afford to maintain and sold to Russia in 1999 are now being used to launch cruise missiles at them. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2022, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/35 "2022-12-02T02:46:10Z")
> [@JFKWasOpenMinded](#): > > At the same time you have much of the world, China/India/Brazil/Saudia Arabia sort of splintering off and supporting Russia in their own way, or in the least not supporting the Western efforts to degrade Russia. If your definition of “at war” includes “remaining neutral”, then the word has completely lost all meaning. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2022, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/36 "2022-12-03T03:53:09Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > The elephant gave up its nukes to the Bear in exchange for what turned out 26 years later to be a piece of paper Putin used to wipe his ass. In hindsight, they should have demanded security assurances from other parties at part of giving up the nukes. IOW, allow other parties to participate in their behalf. ---
**Author:** ![ekedolphin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ekedolphin/32/10003_2.png) [@ekedolphin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekedolphin)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2022, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/37 "2022-12-05T11:08:35Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I hate to threadshit - and don’t intend to - but the main reason that WWI and WWII didn’t actually go truly global is because South America and Africa mostly had little reason to get involved in things. Someone didn’t watch _Casablanca,_ which takes place in the North African country of Morocco. ---
**Author:** ![Tibby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tibby/32/17030_2.png) [@Tibby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tibby)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2022, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/38 "2022-12-06T14:41:46Z")
Hopefully mutually assured destruction (MAD) will continue to prevent all-out nuclear war in our post-WWII world. I don’t believe even Kim Jong-un is insane enough to go head-to-head against any nation with second-strike capability. It would be suicide. IMHO, a hypothetical WWIII would be self-limited to asymmetrical conventional warfare, guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and border skirmishes, just on a larger scale. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/39 "2022-12-07T07:26:34Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > What’s the date of that video? I saw it maybe four years ago. If I remember correctly it was made by some company in 2016 as a psychological test. It mentioned PM Theresa May and President Obama. The original video was longer and showed the news anchors, better invasion maps, evacuations, surrender of eastern European nations, etc. I remember the Warsaw correspondent was disconnected by a nuclear bomb. Every time I see President Zelensky speak from his bunker, with the white wall, I think of that scene. ~Max ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646/40 "2022-12-07T17:42:10Z")
> [@Tibby](#): > > Hopefully mutually assured destruction (MAD) will continue to prevent all-out nuclear war in our post-WWII world. The big risk to MAD was always that a dictoatormmight think, “But what if the destruction isn’t mutual?” Dictators and strong men tend to see Democracies as weak in peacetime. WWII happened in part because Hitler looked at the isolationist and peace movements in the U.S. and decided America had no will to fight. He was wrong. The risk is that Putin may back himself into a corner where it’s use nukes or lose big, and under that pressure he’ll rationalize to himself that the west will never cause global nuclear war over a nuke dropped on Kiev or something. Or that the west is weak enough that if he hits a couple of major cities we’ll all beg for mercy rather than fight back. Dictators in a bubble of yes-men can do crazy, irrational things. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-would-a-true-world-war-be-like/975646.md?page=3)