Mike H: I mean reallll slow, and if you let the SSA tax decide how much could be diverted to private accounts and how much to take to keep paying current benfeciaries, so the system stays solvent. Give them autonomy for doing this much the same way the Fed gets to choose interest rates. You then gradually wean people from a pay as you go system to a “invest yourself” system, by gradually increasing the amount of their FICA tax that can be diverted to personal investments.
I got no problem with this myself, assuming that we had restrictions on the investment options so as not to increase risk or overhead unacceptably, and still maintained a safety net to support the disabled/survivors and those who outlived their savings.
In fact, we wouldn’t necessarily even have to move these accounts into the stock market; just keep them in the special high-interest T-bills as they are now, with the only difference being that you’re saving for yourself and you can will away any leftovers (perhaps minus a certain percentage to help fund the safety net). In the end, it would simply be as though we’d originally picked a “fully funded” (i.e., save-for-yourself) social insurance plan instead of the current “pay-as-you-go” one.
However, there would still be some non-negligible transition costs, so we’d have to be willing to bite that bullet. And in order to transition slowly enough to keep the transition costs at a tolerable level, we’d have to do it over many decades.
In short, this is not a plan to fix the projected SS shortfall 35–45 years down the road; this is a fundamental long-term policy shift to make the system more innately appealing to workers, although more expensive. The ideology fits Bush’s rhetoric of “ownership”, but it doesn’t do jack to repair a “crisis” in the medium term.
For that purpose, Bush will have to cling to his projected benefit cuts via wage-indexing. Which I must admit is a rather elegantly diabolical approach to a vexing fiscal problem: “Mr. President, Social Security is losing solvency and eventually will only be able to pay about 75% of benefits! What shall we do?” “Um, let’s see… I know! We’ll restructure the system to reduce the scheduled benefits below the current 75% level! Then we’ll be meeting our obligations in full!”
Genius, of a sort. Wish I could do that with bus fare: “Well look, I know the fare’s $1.25 but I’ve only got a dollar on me. Why don’t we just agree that now the fare is $1.00, and then I’ll be able to pay for the bus ride? … What? Why not? Hey, that hurt! Oh, if only I were President…”