# Would You Take $3 Million Now, or wait 6 months and get $20 million? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 11, 2010, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459 "2010-01-11T01:39:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/101 "2010-01-11T20:18:12Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > Are you really going to live better with 20 million dollars than you would with 3 million? Oh, hell yeah! By an order of magnitude at least. $3M just isn’t that much these days. After building the dream house and setting up some scholarships, we’d be down to just a decent 401K chunk. But with $20M, you have some leverage. That gets you the ranch, the place in Ireland, and the wherewithall to seriously alter some peoples lives. Not to mention a serious amount of “Fuck You” money to stash overseas. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/102 "2010-01-11T20:19:42Z")
Besides, with $20million, think how much more I could give to orphans and the church. I wouldn’t, but think how much it would be. ---
**Author:** ![Cat\_Whisperer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cat_whisperer/32/4839_2.png) [@Cat\_Whisperer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cat_Whisperer)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/103 "2010-01-11T20:22:32Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I’m going to go ahead and judge all of you guys. > > You’re fucking nuts! Take the three million dollars! Time is much, much more valuable than money, and once you have several multiple millions an extra 17 doesn’t matter. > > If the offer was 3 billion dollars now, or 20 billion in 6 months, would that change your decision? > > Are you really going to live better with 20 million dollars than you would with 3 million? Well, yeah, actually. 3 mil just doesn’t go very far when you want to spend the rest of your life in your underpants, lighting cigars with $100 bills. 3 billion vs. 20 billion does change things - I’d take the 3 bil now, since it is virtually impossible to blow 3 bil without doing something monumentally stupid. 3 bil vs. 20 bil is the difference between more than you can possibly spend versus lots more than you can possibly spend. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/104 "2010-01-11T20:22:34Z")
Too late for edit window: I would also be willing to wait 6 months for 20 billion instead of 3 billion. The quality of my life would be unaffected, but I would view it as a sacrifice for charity; about half the money would be given away/pledged within a few years. The remaining half would be used to further my plans of political dominance. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/105 "2010-01-11T20:31:32Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I’m going to go ahead and judge all of you guys. > > You’re fucking nuts! Take the three million dollars! Time is much, much more valuable than money, and once you have several multiple millions an extra 17 doesn’t matter. > > If the offer was 3 billion dollars now, or 20 billion in 6 months, would that change your decision? > > Are you really going to live better with 20 million dollars than you would with 3 million? I think 17 extra million (or billion) does make a whole lot of difference. With 3 million, I’ll be able to pay off the houses, buy another one for parents, and do some rich-guy-stuff for a few months. With 20, I could probably do the same rich-guy-stuff, and have plenty left over to invest or leave to my heirs. Plus, get a few spare organs on the black market just in case 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/106 "2010-01-11T20:52:11Z")
I couldn’t even quit my job and maintain my lifestyle to the end of my days for $3M. You need enough cash flow, safely invested to cover today’s current standard of living PLUS future inflation. $3M at 6% doesn’t do that for us. It doesn’t even provide enough income to replace MY salary plus benefits (and keep the inflation hedge) much less the two incomes we have. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/107 "2010-01-11T21:03:53Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > …Are you really going to live better with 20 million dollars than you would with 3 million? It’s the difference between comfortable and lavish, for the cost of six months. While time is valuable, I don’t value six months at more than $17 million. With the extra money you can help more people than yourself, too. ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/108 "2010-01-11T21:30:19Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I’m going to go ahead and judge all of you guys. > > You’re fucking nuts! Take the three million dollars! Time is much, much more valuable than money, and once you have several multiple millions an extra 17 doesn’t matter. > > If the offer was 3 billion dollars now, or 20 billion in 6 months, would that change your decision? > > Are you really going to live better with 20 million dollars than you would with 3 million? First question: what is this value to my time? The way I see it, I wait 6 months and get $17M - that’s like earning $34M/year. I assure you that my time is not worth nearly that much. Second, as said numerous times, think of the good you could do with the $17M even if you didn’t need it yourself. Wouldn’t you like to donate $17M to cancer research, Habitat for Humanity, or the Girl Scouts? Third, hell yes I’d wait 6 months for the extra $17 billion. For that extra $17B, I would fund a company to develop a laser blood glucose monitor which would need none of the silly $200/month strips and would provide continuous monitoring and alarms, and give them our free to every damn diabetic in the country if possible. Personally, my time is worth waiting 6 months in order to be able to help others. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![amarone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@amarone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarone)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/109 "2010-01-11T21:38:23Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I’m going to go ahead and judge all of you guys. > > You’re fucking nuts! Take the three million dollars! Time is much, much more valuable than money, and once you have several multiple millions an extra 17 doesn’t matter. > > If the offer was 3 billion dollars now, or 20 billion in 6 months, would that change your decision? > > Are you really going to live better with 20 million dollars than you would with 3 million? As others have said, $3m is really not that much if you want to live off it the rest of your lives. Common financial advice is to start off by taking 4% and then increasing by inflation each year. That gets you $120k, taxable (probably). A fifty-year old couple where one is a teacher and the other a nurse earns that much, on average. Do you regard them as being wealthy such that extra income is just not worth bothering about? Earning $800k/year would not result in them living better? ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/110 "2010-01-11T21:41:27Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I’m going to go ahead and judge all of you guys. > > You’re fucking nuts! Take the three million dollars! Time is much, much more valuable than money, and once you have several multiple millions an extra 17 doesn’t matter. > > If the offer was 3 billion dollars now, or 20 billion in 6 months, would that change your decision? > > Are you really going to live better with 20 million dollars than you would with 3 million? Good call. I’d be more likely to go for the quick cash if it were billions, because my imagination doesn’t really stretch as far as the disposal of an extra 17 of them. But for millions, there are things I would like to do that would not be so easily possible with 3 million as they would be with 20 million. My dream, in such a situation, would be to set up a small company that basically indulges my personal (highly amateur) artistic interests and employs a few like-minded individuals. With 20 million behind it, properly invested, and sensible budgets, it would not be necessary to worry about whether the business made any profit. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/111 "2010-01-11T21:48:07Z")
The correct approach to any question like this - “Small amount now, or large amount [Y] in time [T]” - is to ask yourself whether you could, in time T, grow amount X to exceed amount [Y-X]. If you asked me if I wanted three million dollars now, or twenty million in twenty years, I’d take the three million now, because I’d believe (rightly or wrongly) that I could invest it in such as a way as to make more than 17 million dollars, and so I’d come out ahead over time T. However, in your scenario, I’d wait six months. I can’t think of any reliable way that I could get the return in that timeframe that I’d gain simply by waiting. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/112 "2010-01-11T21:54:22Z")
I’d love to go in space. I’d also like to explore some ideas to make it cheaper (I know it will never be cheap) in the process. 3 mil and space(orbiting earth) aint gonna happen for me. 20 mill might do it with some luck/haggling. 3 billion and I might even be able to go to the moon (or mars with lotsa luck and outa the box engineering). 20 billion and even mars is starting to look possible. Not that I WOULD spend it that way, but at least for me, I can come up with reasons why a six month wait makes the difference between being able to do or not do something I’d really like to do. The same goes for 6 months and 3 trillion vs 20 trillion. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/113 "2010-01-11T23:09:38Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > ETA: to me, this is like asking “do you want a kajillion zillion dollars now, or do you want to be broke for 6 months, and then get a kajillion zillion JILLION dollars?” Uh, no, since the practical difference between $3 million and $20 million is much greater than the actual difference between $3 billion and $20 billion. ---
**Author:** ![foolscap](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9a140/32.png) [@foolscap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolscap)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/114 "2010-01-12T01:51:44Z")
I can wait for 20 mil. I would have a very hard time not saying anything about it to family and friends until I had the cash in hand. . If I did tell it would change everything too soon.😃 ---
**Author:** ![Taomist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/53a042/32.png) [@Taomist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taomist)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/115 "2010-01-12T02:13:04Z")
I’d wait. Would take me 6 months to figure out what I’d do with it anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Carmady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f04885/32.png) [@Carmady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carmady)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/116 "2010-01-12T02:31:00Z")
I would wait about 3-4 years. 6 months would be ridiculously easy to wait, because it is short enough that I could simulate being rich by racking up debt. ---
**Author:** ![manila](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@manila](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/manila)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/117 "2010-01-12T02:46:45Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’d take the $20M. > > Not to hijack the thread, but let me ask a related question: > > You’ve been accused of mopery, and the prosecution has enough evidence to convict. You’ve been offered two deals by the prosecutor: a month in jail or no confinement but 10 years’ probation. Conviction of any crime while on probation means you serve out the ten year sentence in prison. > > What do you take? Bang me up for the month. Absolutely! in fact can you make it six months? You see I need to keep my hands off 3 mil for that long to get 20 mil which is coming my way! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/118 "2010-01-12T04:18:38Z")
First off, to be perfectly clear, I’d be extremely happy with either option. Heck, waiting six months for the three million would still be a very sweet deal. But under the terms of the hypothetical, I’d take the 20 megabucks later. I’m currently financially secure enough that I shouldn’t have any significant problems in doing without a huge pile of cash for that time (I hope not, at least, since I’m not expecting such a windfall as it is). And while a free three million dollars right now would mean significant lifestyle changes, it wouldn’t be an absolute change, and another 17 would still mean significant improvement. Now, if the deal were 30 billion now vs. 200 billion in a half a year, that’d be different. Either one of those is in the range of “no possible way to run out of money no matter how quickly you try to hemorrhage it”, so the only question is how quickly I’d be able to start on that astronomical lifestyle. That’d probably even be true at an order of magnitude or more lower than that, since I just wouldn’t be able to bring myself to even try to burn through that much cash. I’m not sure what I’d really do with more than, say, 100 million dollars (though if given the opportunity, I’d certainly try to find something). ---
**Author:** ![Iridescent\_Orb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@Iridescent\_Orb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iridescent_Orb)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/119 "2010-01-12T05:51:11Z")
For those interested, eggheads have spent years studying questions like this, and many of the people who would take the $3 million immediately demonstrate what is known as _ **hyperbolic discounting** _. Basically, it means that it would take a lot more money in the future for someone to give up immediate cash in hand. But, they become much more rational and calculating if both options occur in the future (i.e., there is no immediate option available). Under hyperbolic discounting, the results would be quite different if people were asked to choose between: [ol] [li]$ 3 million received 10 years in the future, or[/li][li]$20 million received 11 years in the future[/li][/ol] The payoff is still an extra $17 million for waiting a year, but heck, if you are waiting 10 years anyway, what’s an extra year? Of course, your chances of dying in year 11 (when you are older) is probably greater than in the next year, but for some reason it seems like a better deal from today’s perspective. Anyway, I’m not trying to pass judgment on those who would take the $3 million immediately - I’m just pointing out that there is a (pseudo) scientific term for their behavior. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459/120 "2010-01-12T06:09:38Z")
> [@Rumor\_Watkins](#): > > well let’s ignore the fact that if you’re “guaranteed” this money, you would most likely be able to find someone willing to front you the money now for a return with a good rate of interest in 6 months from now 😉 Excellent point. Unless they charge a rate that makes a loan shark call them a rotten thief, it is worth waiting - and of course you don’t need $20 million not to be destitute, no matter what our Wall Street CEOs say. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/would-you-take-3-million-now-or-wait-6-months-and-get-20-million/524459.md?page=7)