It seems there was already some degree of pushback from the military against Trump in his first term on various matters, though it is not clear that there was a direct refusal to follow an order.
A refusal of an order does not mean, however, that the military has become completely insubordinate. E.g., a general could say, “I cannot follow an illegal order, Mr. President, but I am standing by and ready to accept any legal orders you might have.”
I think it would go down something like that. I think the military would simply refuse to, say, occupy LA and say that any such operation would be for the police and federal agencies to perform.
In terms of game theory, I think the military splitting into factions and fighting each other is a tough scenario to get started because of CYA. If the whole military is enthusiastically supporting Trump, then CYA isn’t a problem. If it is standing back and not getting involved, then one part breaking off to support Trump runs the risk of getting in big legal trouble or even getting blown away by the larger part.
I think a more likely scenario is an actual military coup in which the military, still unified, removes Trump in order to “defend the constitution,” etc. This seems to be the more common pattern when it comes to military coups. (Though Japan during WWII had pretty horrible factionalism, with the Navy and Army often at odds. There were also several attempted military coups in the 1930s started by different factions.)
A revolution of the government is not legal. Using the military to prevent a revolution is legal. Who do you think are the “bad guys” in your scenario? The military would go along with it in order to support and defend the Constitution. A protest is legal. A revolution is not. Doesn’t matter how much you hate Trump.
Also, I’m not sure how many government workers or military personnel you know, but I can assure you that they are predominately right-leaning. Most who I know are either slightly in favor of Trump over Biden, or fanatically in favor of Trump over Biden. Even the ones who absolutely despise Trump would rather see him back in office than another 4 years of Biden. You need to venture outside of your echo chamber every now and again.
I’m confused by the OP. Are they suggesting that if an insurrectionist is legally elected President, that the rest of the government should commit insurrection in various forms against him? Or are we talking more of a sit down strike?
Federal law prohibits federal employees from striking. Trump could just fire the lot (like Reagan did in 1981) and appoint bootlickers to replace them.
Certainly the most vocal of them express right wing (and occasionally far-right) political views. I’m sure that differs between agencies—I would expect that the Environmental Protection Agency or the Department of Education tends to attract moderate to left-leaning candidates by dint of their essential missions—but anything involving defense or law enforcement is going to have employees who hew further to the right simply because of the perception (and to a real extent, the reality) that conservatives support more military spending and greater authority and protections for policing. Many people might be shocked to learn how many government workers are unironically Ron Swanson-esque opponents of “Big Government” and believers of the “Deep State”, despite the fact that they are ostensibly part of it…except, of course, their particular agency or function.
Or just fire the lot, and don’t bother replacing them at all. This is the MAGA wet dream (also see Grover Norquist; “My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.”)
The destruction of the federal government workforce would be seen as a feature, not a bug.
Yup. I had an Internet acquaintance who ranted about people taking handouts from the government, how she’d never taken anything in her life, how gubmint employees were useless drones sucking off the public teat, etc. She was married to a postal worker.
And the resultant failure of the government to function capably would be hailed as further proof that Big Gubmint is a useless parasite on Real Americans.
Is an insult, not an actual argument. Insinuating that I blame Ukrainians for dying in the revolution is a strawman with absolutely no relation to anything I’ve stated and is offensive to boot.
No, you are factually incorrect on the point. That isn’t even debatable, declaring that the revolution was both peaceful and nonviolent flies in the face of what actually happened. If you feel the point isn’t worth your time, perhaps you should have refrained from arguing about it, directly insulting me twice, and offensively misrepresented what I’ve actually said.
I have told you both to drop this line of discussion in this thread. I won’t mod note again. Further discussion by either of you will result in a formal warning. DROP IT.
I think it would be more likely that they’d refuse illegal orders, and just “sit it out” for a while- sort of a “We’ll defend the country from without, but we’re not getting involved” kind of thing. Maybe even with a declaration to that effect.
I pointed this out in a similar thread, but the most senior leaders, IMO, don’t view the Constitution as a suicide pact. They’ll never telegraph this, but in unusual and dire circumstances common sense (and the survival of the Republic) would prevail.
An example: In Nixon’s final days as president, the Defense Secretary instructed the senior military leadership to come to him first if Nixon ordered a military strike—say, nuking Moscow. I believe that’s how it would have played out, “lawful order” notwithstanding.
Another: On January 6, Pence ordered in the National Guard, an order he didn’t have the authority to issue. Military leadership likely understood that, but also understood the commander-in-chief was derelict in his duty and the circumstance required immediate action. Strict textualism loses some of its appeal when the house is on fire.
So, yes, I think outrageous orders would be met with resistance, unless Trump managed to fill the most senior leadership (and probably a few layers below that) with compliant accomplices. Common sense and decency would prevail in most cases in the face of obviously evil and outrageous orders.
In a thread a while back on conspiracy theories, there was a good point made (by @FairyChatMom IIRC) about how CTers overestimate the capabilities and fanaticism of goverment employees to do things like fake moon landings, or false-flag 9/11. Government employees aren’t James Bond villains, they’re just people doing their jobs. In fact, many of them took civil service jobs because of the job security and eventual pension. As such, they are probably less likely than the average person to embark on monstrously dangerous schemes.
The collective, risk-averse nature of the civil service workforce would also keep many of them from quitting or standing up to destructive acts by Trump and his ilk. They might be strongly opposed to Trump, but still be unwilling to give up their secure job and pension in order to stop him.
Is there nothing in civil service that is akin to military command responsibility - namely, that if your superior orders you to do something wrong and you comply, you are also held legally liable?
There’s also the flip side to that, where it’s typically very difficult to get fired out of hand from just about any public sector job, so I suspect you’d see a LOT of passive resistance, malicious compliance, and just flat out slow-walking stuff by everyone involved, if things were truly not wanted and awful. Like projects would be perpetually off schedule, there would always be problems, and so forth.
I don’t think there is or needs to be anything like that in civil service. In non-military life , it doesn’t legally matter who ordered you to do something criminal. If you did it , unless you almost literally had a gun to your head, you are responsible. ( And sometimes even if you do literally have a gun to your head). The reason that a big deal is made of it in the military is because those in the military can end up in prison for failing to obey a lawful order while the worst that can happen to a civilian employee is they get fired. Which makes it a bit more difficult to refuse an order unless you are absolutely sure it’s illegal so they make sure to drum it into you that “just following orders” won’t work.
BTW, I think you have “command responsibility” backwards - that means the superior officer is responsible for crimes committed by their subordinates.