# WTF happened to improve Trump’s odds of re-election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 9, 2020, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869 "2020-07-09T21:14:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/301 "2020-08-25T16:58:52Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Right wing political violence is and should be prosecuted. Do you really, really believe that left leaning people and virtually all Democrats do not want the left wing violent elements to be prosecuted? Yes or No? I ask because me and many over here do think that anyone resorting to violence does deserve to be prosecuted. Also, it is clear that condemnations Biden and many others had made about the violence shows a very, very big lie coming from right wing sources now, when right wing sources declare to people like you that Democrats are not condemning the violence. Even on a recent NPR interview the interviewer recently had to remind a Republican hack leader about that. Biden and others are not supporting violence. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/302 "2020-08-25T17:05:21Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > How’s it funny? Violent far-right thugs being triggered by Obama hats two years ago and not a peep from you. ---
**Author:** ![Dark\_Sponge](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dark_sponge/32/121_2.png) [@Dark\_Sponge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dark_Sponge)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/303 "2020-08-25T17:18:51Z")
I know the ‘gun use is increasing’ debate is secondary to the OP but wanted to add that my gun hating wife now wants to learn to shoot. I had to fight with her to keep my grandfather’s WWII P38 (a family heirloom) in our house before and now she’s done a 180. People are scared. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/304 "2020-08-25T17:19:50Z")
Not virtually all. But far too many local leaders and district attorneys are playing a very dangerous game of pandering to violent radicals because they feel that there is a nominal ideological alliance. Look, if political violence becomes normal and you start seeing IRA style tactics here in the US do you think the outcome will be good? ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/305 "2020-08-25T17:22:27Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > far too many local leaders and district attorneys are playing a very dangerous game of pandering to violent radicals because they feel that there is a nominal ideological alliance. [Like Portland PD pandering to Proud Boys?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/feds-black-bagging-people-in-portland/915638/1134) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/306 "2020-08-25T17:29:57Z")
Leftist mobs, eh? > **[Portland Police Are Giving Up On Policing The Far-Right](https://news.yahoo.com/portland-police-far-right-proud-boys-094500346.html)** > > Officers allowed street brawls between "willing participants" last weekend, despite escalating violence from Proud Boys and other far-right groups. _The Portland Police Bureau appears to have all but given up on policing the far-right factions brawling in the Oregon city’s streets, despite a recent escalation in violence that has seen those extremists throw explosives, brandish guns and in one case fire them at other protesters._ _It’s common to see far-right extremist groups like the Proud Boys [exchanging blows with counterprotesters](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/proud-boys-portland-rally_n_5d59390ee4b0eb875f2539c4) in Portland. They’ve been doing that for years, often as PPB officers watched until a riot was officially declared and then police cleared the streets using tear gas and other munitions._ ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/307 "2020-08-25T17:35:57Z")
What I see is people balancing the 1st amendment rights of protesters to address their grievances to the govt vs the potential for social disruption that it may cause. Would you say that pro-2nd amendment advocates are playing a dangerous game of pandering to violent radicals as well? Far more are killed and wounded due to our easy access to guns than are killed or wounded due to allowing assemblies of people to address the govt. It sounds like your solution is to take a sharpy to the first amendment and cross out a couple parts that you don’t like. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/308 "2020-08-25T17:36:16Z")
Lol. Two months of rioting by leftist nuts and you are worried about sporadic appearances of some right wing nuts? Seems inconsistent. Plus I thought the police weren’t wanted by the far left? What in the world do you think happens when there is no law and order? You think the ‘Summer of Love’ at CHOP/CHAZ was a pleasant experience for all involved? ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/309 "2020-08-25T17:40:51Z")
Burning residences, businesses, and government buildings is not free speech. Assaulting people for wrong think is not free speech. I’m probably more free speech than practically anyone on this board. I don’t think prohibitions on so-called “hate speech” or speech codes or any of that nonsense leads to any good. I think people should have the freedom to assembly or not as they choose. So, I’m not sure where you get that I’m anti first amendment. My pro first amendment stance on unpopular speech or speakers has led to many on this site using libelous language to describe me. Now with regards to the 2nd amendment and violence that’s a whole other debate. I ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/310 "2020-08-25T17:41:53Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Right wing political violence is and should be prosecuted. > [@octopus](#): > > far too many local leaders and district attorneys are playing a very dangerous game of pandering to violent radicals because they feel that there is a nominal ideological alliance. > [@Skywatcher](#): > > Like Portland PD pandering to Proud Boys? > [@Feds 'black-bagging people' in Portland](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/feds-black-bagging-people-in-portland/915638/1136): > > Maybe some social workers can be called. > [@octopus](#): > > Seems inconsistent. No shit. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/311 "2020-08-25T17:42:05Z")
That was a no or yes question. Figures that you are not capable of answering it. In a thread about the presidential election what Biden and others did say is the most important thing, and clearly your sources are blatantly lying to you about what they are saying about what the Democrats do think about the violent elements. [https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/biden-philadelphia-transcript/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/biden-philadelphia-transcript/index.html) > The country is crying out for leadership. Leadership that can unite us. Leadership that can bring us together. Leadership that can recognize the pain and deep grief of communities that have had a knee on their neck for too long. > > But there is no place for violence. > > No place for looting or destroying property or burning churches, or destroying businesses — many of them built by people of color who for the first time were beginning to realize their dreams and build wealth for their families. > > Nor is it acceptable for our police — sworn to protect and serve all people — to escalate tensions or resort to excessive violence. > > We need to distinguish between legitimate peaceful protest — and opportunistic violent destruction. > > And we must be vigilant about the violence that’s being done by the incumbent president to our democracy and to the pursuit of justice. > > When peaceful protestors are dispersed by the order of the President from the doorstep of the people’s house, the White House — using tear gas and flash grenades — in order to stage a photo op at a noble church, we can be forgiven for believing that the president is more interested in power than in principle. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/312 "2020-08-25T17:51:32Z")
You are correct, those are not free speech, and those are not what anyone is defending or condoning. When you lump peaceful protesters in with violent actors, you are damaging free speech. It would be like if I lumped all gun owners in with criminals and mass murderers. When your “pro-first amendment” stance means that people should not be allowed to express their criticisms of other’s free speech, then you end up being far less of a free speech advocate than you imagine that you are. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/313 "2020-08-26T21:50:33Z")
You should be hoping instead that he beats Hillary Clinton’s numbers, because right now he is behind where she was in every battleground state. It doesn’t matter if Biden carries New York, California and other blue states by larger margins than he did last time if he can’t win the battleground states. > **[Right Now, Biden Is Underperforming Hillary in Battleground States | National...](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/right-now-biden-is-underperforming-hillary-in-battleground-states/)** > > There’s little apprehension among liberal pundits and Democrats about the similarities between 2020 and 2016 polling in battleground states. > [@](#): > > The RealClearPolitics [average](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html) had Clinton +6.5 in Wisconsin on Election Day. In August, she had been +11.5. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the 2016 campaign showed Trump winning the state. Biden has a + 3.5 [average](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html) right now — which is to say, he is underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and economic collapse. > … > Other states have similar stories. Biden [is](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html) +5.5 in Pennsylvania today. Hillary [was](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html) +9.2 the same day in 2016. Polls would tighten, but Hillary still ended up +2 on Election Day. Biden [is](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html) +7 in Michigan today, and Hillary was +9 [on the same day](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html) in 2016. > > Florida is the only battleground state where Biden (+3.7) [is](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html) outperforming [Clinton](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html) (+2.7). Also, two polls out this weekend have Trump over 50%. > **[Position On Violent Crime Is Driving Trump's Approval Up - The Lid](https://lidblog.com/violent-crime-driving-trumps-approval/)** > > Recent polls report violent crime is an important issue for voters. The parties' different positions toward violent crime is driving Trump's approval up For those who don’t want to read it, the upshot is that Zogby has Trump at 52/47, Rasmussen 51/48. Even more frightening for Democrats, Zogby says support for Trump is at 36% for Blacks, 37% for Hispanics, and 35% for Asians. Remarkably, support for Trump was 23% among _Democrats_. Zogby says the black support is the highest polled for any Republican in the history of their organization. Democrats are focused on getting support from black activists, but the violence that is going on is primarily hitting other black people - people who don’t want their neighborhoods trashed and their businesses looted. The riots are pushing them right into the arms of the Republicans. If Trump does get anywhere 36% of the Black vote in November, Democrats are in big trouble. Now wait until the Dakotas find out that Biden wants to outlaw fracking, the gulf states discover he wants to end offshore drilling, and taxpayers find out about the tax hikes. Anyone who thinks this election is in the bag for anyone is either living in a bubble or hasn’t been paying attention to what’s going on. These are the most volatile times in our history, and the polls vould swing towards one candidate and back multiple times before the election. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/314 "2020-08-26T21:56:31Z")
Zogby is not a real polling outfit and Rasmussen barely is. If you’re really interested in what the polls say, follow Nate Silver. No one else comes close - certainly not anyone citing nonsense polls like Zogby. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/315 "2020-08-26T23:15:22Z")
> [@](#): > > Zogby is not a real polling outfit and Rasmussen barely is. If you’re really interested in what the polls say, follow Nate Silver. No one else comes close - certainly not anyone citing nonsense polls like Zogby. According to 538, [on this date in 2016](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/), Clinton was up 8 in Wisconsin. [Today](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/), Biden is up by 5.9 after being up by 7 three days ago. And this is less than a week after the DNC ended. Likewise, according to Nate, [on this date in 2016,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/) Hillary was up by 8.3 in Michigan. [Today](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/), Biden has today fallen from an 8 point lead to a 7.6 point lead in the Wolverine State. [On this date in 2016](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/), Hillary up by 6.1 in Pennsylvania. [Today](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/), Biden’s lead fell to 5.6, down from a 6.5 point lead a week ago. There’s a definite puckering sound in the air, and it’s not just the sound of the race tightening. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/316 "2020-08-26T23:18:32Z")
This is meaningless. If it meant something, it would be part of Nate’s analysis. What matters is the long term polling trends. Trump could still win, but comparing exact days 4 years apart for individual state polls doesn’t tell us anything about this likelihood. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/317 "2020-08-27T00:01:10Z")
Last election’s polls notoriously undersampled potential Trump voters. This time around, pollsters are mindful of repeating their errors and have re-weighed their polls accordingly. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/318 "2020-08-27T00:02:14Z")
Only in a few states. National polling was quite good in 2016, only off by a point or two. There was only a significant polling error in about three states. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/319 "2020-08-27T01:07:32Z")
And of course, I’m forgetting Comey’s little October surprise. Had the election been held four years ago today, Clinton would’ve won, even with wonky polls. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/320 "2020-08-27T04:41:57Z")
Yep. The Comey memo was the single biggest cause of her losing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=17)