# WTF happened to improve Trump’s odds of re-election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 9, 2020, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869 "2020-07-09T21:14:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![Kimera757](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimera757/32/3765_2.png) [@Kimera757](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimera757)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/341 "2020-08-28T02:03:23Z")
Pelosi is a sharp political operative, so I don’t see her making any big mistakes. Maybe she’s lowering expectations. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/342 "2020-08-28T02:06:41Z")
It’s less about Biden’s cognitive ability, and more whether it is worth standing on stage with a liar. Ask John Messina to wrestle a pig, and the reason that he refuses is not because he is a wimp. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/343 "2020-08-28T02:13:58Z")
The problem with that is the liar is _President of the United States_. A challenger refusing to debate a sitting President would not just be unprecedented, it would be disastrous, especially given the suspicions that Biden isn’t all there. Refusing to debate would just make him look weak. And if he refused, there will be a debate anyway, even if it’s only between Trump and Kanye. If the media refused to air it and didn’t heavily criticise Joe for skippjng an important election tradition, it will feed into the narrative that the media is out to ‘get’ Trump and is stacking the deck against him. Biden has to debate him. If he skips the debate, he’ll lose support to Trump. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/344 "2020-08-28T02:15:48Z")
I don’t disagree that there are people that are stupid enough to fall for that. I just think that most of them are already voting for Trump anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/345 "2020-08-28T02:53:14Z")
I disagree. I think there is a potential alignment shift here among black voters. The Democrats are listening to Black activists, Black politicians and Black ‘elites’. They’re not listening to the Black middle class. You know, the people who actually live in the areas where all the violence is happening. Zogby and Rasmussen both have Black support for Trump over 30% now. If that’s even remotely close, it represents a huge swing. A Fox news poll had him at 19% Black support back in April. Trump only got 8% of the Black vote in 2016. Also, it’s possible that election models are not capturing this, which could make the polling undercount Trump support. If Trump even gets 20% of the Black vote, he’s got a big advantage over 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/346 "2020-08-28T03:11:54Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Biden has to debate him. If he skips the debate, he’ll lose support to Trump. Biden is eager to debate Trump. This is a non-issue. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/347 "2020-08-28T03:58:36Z")
There wont be a debate, that is my guess. trump will demand ridiculous concessions. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/348 "2020-08-28T03:59:03Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > That’s a smart response. Pelosi should know better - just floating the idea that Joe shouldn’t debate plays into the narrative that he can’t debate Trump and win because of his supposed cognitive defects. She didn’t help him at all. I trust Pelosi’s political instincts more than I trust yours. She knows what she’s doing. Do you really think she says anything to the press in this environment, less than three months from Election Day, without knowing exactly what the next two moves are? ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/349 "2020-08-28T04:20:04Z")
Biden blowing off Pelosi’s suggestion further reinforces the narrative that he’s his own man and not beholden to the “San Francisco” contingent. I’m sure Pelosi made the suggestion knowing Biden had no intention of taking her up on it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/350 "2020-08-28T04:25:46Z")
And when trump demands ridiculous concessions for the debate, Biden can regretfully say no. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/351 "2020-08-28T05:06:12Z")
I’m puzzled why so many folks in this thread feel the need to respond to a poster from Saskatoon, Edmonton or Prince George or wherever the fuck in Canada they are actually from. Nothing at stake for them and yet people respond as if what they say is relevant. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/352 "2020-08-28T05:25:52Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I’m puzzled why so many folks in this thread feel the need to respond to a poster from Saskatoon, Edmonton or Prince George or wherever the fuck in Canada they are actually from. > > Nothing at stake for them and yet people respond as if what they say is relevant As an American living in Australia, I feel forced to disagree. Whether we like it or not, the rest of the world is (still) profoundly impacted by the character and competence of the US government. The US economy has a large impact on the global economy. US culture is widely exported to the rest of the world. Etc., etc. At the risk of sounding like I’m trying to Junior mod here; I would suggest that we debate posters on the substance of their posts, not dismiss them solely based on the posters’ point of origin. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/353 "2020-08-28T13:03:40Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Zogby and Rasmussen both have Black support for Trump over 30% now. If that’s even remotely close, it represents a huge swing. A Fox news poll had him at 19% Black support back in April. Trump only got 8% of the Black vote in 2016. Can you link any of these polls? My suspicion is that they’re tracking polls. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/354 "2020-08-28T13:09:32Z")
Trump is currently calling for drug tests. If Biden refused, then the message is that he is hiding the drugs he is on. There is a reason why trolling is not allowed here, you cannot win against a troll. Not to Jr. Mod here, but if Trump ever shows up, I would truly hope that the mods would give him a troll ban post haste. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/355 "2020-08-28T13:10:54Z")
Zogby and Rasmussen are also some of the most inaccurate polls out there. Looking at a single poll, or even a pair, tells us absolutely nothing about an election months away. Especially when they’re as bad as these two. The only reasonable way to use polls is to look at the long term averages and trends. In other words, follow Nate Silver. Any other polling “analysis” is going to be inferior to his and his team’s. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/356 "2020-08-28T13:26:17Z")
I was going to say the same thing. Everyone in the world has the right to opine on the US. Canadians especially. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/357 "2020-08-28T14:10:59Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The numbers that will tell the tale will come out next week, after both conventions are in the rear-view mirror. The next important ones will be the week after all the debates are finished. You’ll need to wait a few weeks for enough new polls to be baked into the aggregate numbers. Thigns will still go up and down, but don’t believe one poll. Believe aggregations. That said, if the polls were to remain where they are, Trump would “win.” Biden would deserve more electoral votes, but let us be clear; there is no chance, zero, that the election will be fairly contested. The cheating will be unprecedented. Black voters will be purged en masse. Force will be used to disperse voters from polling places in Democratic areas. Mail in votes will be thrown away. Voting machines will be rigged. I’d guess the Democratic vote will be reduced by 2-3 million votes, at least, though outright cheating. That would be enough to change the election results if the current poll averages were roughly the case. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/358 "2020-08-28T14:19:53Z")
“These riots occurring on my watch will be stopped if I’m elected to another watch.” [Supporters nod solemnly in agreement] ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/359 "2020-08-28T15:02:20Z")
> Our Convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation. The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country. > > Americans watching this address tonight have seen the recent images of violence in our streets and the chaos in our communities. Many have witnessed this violence personally, some have been its victims. > > I have a a message for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. Beginning on January 20th 2017, safety will be restored. > > The most basic duty of government is to defend the lives of its own citizens. Any government that fails to do so is a government unworthy to lead. > > - Donald Trump, 7/21/2016 He has clearly demonstrated that he is not up to this task. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869/360 "2020-08-28T15:26:58Z")
[“Agent Orange”] > a meassage for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. Beginning on January 20th 2017, safety will be restored. It is not strange when many, like Biden, wondered if Trump is aware that he is president right now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wtf-happened-to-improve-trump-s-odds-of-re-election/914869.md?page=19)